Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. It’s another busy day of earnings and M&A updates, in keeping with what’s shaping up to be the flavor of the month.

We have news of two Emirati players eyeing stakes in banks overseas, with ADQ reportedly in talks to acquire Turkish bank Odeabank, and Emirates NBD inching closer to acquiring a stake in India’s Yes Bank.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Sudanese peace talks in Geneva today: US Special Envoy Tom Perriello confirmed that negotiations to end Sudan’s 16-month conflict will proceed despite limited signs of commitment from either the Sudanese army or the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Reuters writes. The Swiss-hosted talks, scheduled to start today and potentially extending to 24 August, will include observers from the African Union, Egypt, UAE, and the UN, with the location undisclosed for security reasons, Bloomberg reports.

WEATHER- The mercury hits 42°C in Dubai, before cooling to an overnight low of 36°C. Over in Abu Dhabi, the mercury peaks at 40°C, with an overnight low of 34°C.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS-

#1- Drivers can shave off four of their black points if they sign a pledge on 26 August on road safety and avoid any traffic violations on that day, which coincides with the start of the new school year, according to a ministry statement. The black point reduction will be applied two weeks post-event.

#2- The first tax period for newly established companies’ for the corporate tax will align with their financial year, with financial years starting 1 June 2023 or after being subject to the tax, the Federal Tax Authority clarified in a recent circular (pdf). The first tax period can be anywhere between 6-18 months, depending on where they were in their first financial year when the corporate tax went into effect — but the authority will count 12 months after the start of their official financial year as the full financial year for future tax periods.

#3- SCA urges claims for pre-March 2015 dividends: The Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) is calling on shareholders in UAE-listed public joint stock companies to claim any unclaimed dividends or cash in dormant accounts at brokerage firms from before March 2015. The SCA has designated First Abu Dhabi Bank for handling dividend payments. Detailed instructions on the claims process are available on the SCA’s website.

#4- The Human Resources and Emiratisation Ministry will settle claims of up to AED 50k in disputes related to employment violations, or in the case of non-compliance with prior settlements, Wam reported, clarifying additional details on criminal proceedings under new amendments to the labor law made this week. Claimants can then file a lawsuit with the Court of First Instance — which is now in charge of handling employment disputes — within 15 days to contest the Ministry’s decision.

ICYMI- The government amended provisions of the UAE Labor Law earlier this week, subjecting employers who violate employment regulations to fines ranging from AED 100k to AED 1 mn, and tasking the Court of Instance with criminal proceeds for labor disputes.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The UAE’s takaful ins. industry — the second largest in the Mena region after Saudi Arabia — is expected to grow 15-20% in 2024, driven by surging motor ins. rates after April’s floods, according to S&P Global’s latest report. This rebound is expected to come on the heels of a dip in premium income in the UAE that impacted Islamic ins. providers’ toplines in 2023.

What was behind last year’s dip? S&P attributed the decline to consolidation in the industry and rate pressures, which in turn.

The regional outlook: The GCC ins. sector’s revenues are poised to top USD 20 bn this year, with the sector expected to grow 15-20%. The Saudi market is expected to drive the income growth on the back of its economic growth.

More ins. providers to merge: With one-third of Emirati ins. firms merging in recent years, the rating agency sees the sector’s merger activity continuing its momentum. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are anticipated to lead the mergers due to “several Islamic insurers still [failing] to meet the required solvency capital requirements,” in addition to strong competition and stringent regulatory demand.

#2- Enec could cooperate with the Philippines on nuclear energy: The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp. (Enec) and the Philippines are exploring a potential partnership to introduce nuclear power to the Philippines’ energy mix, the Philippine News Agency reported. Enec Chairman Mohamed Al Hammadi held a phone call with Philippines President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. in Manila, where the latter stressed the urgent need to explore nuclear energy for power generation.

OIL WATCH-

Global oil markets, currently facing a deficit on the back of high summer demand, could shift to a surplus in the next quarter if Opec+ follows through with its plan to boost supplies in October, Bloomberg reports citing an International Energy Agency (IEA) report. Oil inventories dipped in June by 26.2 mn barrels a day (bbl / d) on the back of increased summer demand.

Demand is covered for next year: Even if the Opec+ cuts stay in place, oil inventories could gain an average 860k bbl / d next year on the back of non-Opec+ supply.

REMEMBER- The oil carter agreed to begin phasing out production cuts this fall at a June meeting in Riyadh, but said it could pause or reverse this decision depending on market conditions. A decision on this could come within a few weeks, Bloomberg said.

The next checkpoint: The group is scheduled to meet again on Sunday, 1 December 2024.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a busy day in the international business press this morning, giving us a mix of business and political headlines.

FIRST UP- Starbucks has replaced its CEO, Laxman Narasimhan, a year and a half into his tenure after facing pressure to make changes in the business from activist investor Elliott Management and former CEO Howard Schultz. The coffee chain has tapped Brian Niccol — currently Chipotle’s chief executive — as its new CEO to execute a turnaround strategy after the business suffered falling sales this year and its shares have faltered. During his tenure at Chipotle since 2018, Niccol has helped lead the company’s revamped performance, driving sales up and leading its shares to rise more than threefold.

MARKET REAX- Starbucks’ shares closed up 24.5% yesterday, while Chipotle’s shares fell 7.5%. (Reuters | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg)

Ukraine is pushing forward with a significant cross-border advance into Russia’s Kursk region, where it surprised Russia last week to land “its biggest battlefield gains since 2022.” Ukrainian soldiers have captured an unspecified number of Russian troops, which Kyiv says can be exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners. Russia has also reportedly withdrawn some of its forces from Ukraine, although it remains unclear how many or where they will be repositioned. (Washington Post | Reuters | Wall Street Journal | New York Times)

AND- Hamas may not participate in tomorrow’s ceasefire negotiations, brokered by Qatar and Egypt, with a senior official from the group saying that Israel’s approach to the talks is hampering progress. Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly “quietly made new demands in recent weeks, additions his own negotiators fear have created extra obstacles to [an agreement],” according to the New York Times.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The World ESG Summit is scheduled to take place on 20-21 August at Dusit Thani in Dubai. The two-day business conference will gather public and private sector players from key sectors like energy, utilities finance, and manufacturing to explore ESG integration across all industries.

The Dubai Business Forum in Beijing, China is set to take place between 21-22 August. Hosted by Dubai Chambers, the event will gather over 50 Dubai-based companies and 350 Chinese firms to explore potential investments in sectors like green tech, AI, healthcare, and renewable energy, president and CEO of Dubai Chambers Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah told the National.

Rex Fuels will host the Global Bitumen, Petrochemicals & Petroproducts Conference at the JW Marriott Marquis Hotel in Dubai on 21-22 August 2024. The conference will bring together bitumen and petroleum producers, suppliers, and traders, to network and discuss trends and challenges in the industry.

The Smart Cities Mena Summit is set to take place in Dubai on 14 October, gathering global policymakers, business leaders, and academics to discuss cross-sector cooperation aimed at enhancing capabilities and achieving economic goals, Wam reports.

The Middle East and North Africa Business Aviation Association Show is scheduled to take place at Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai from 10-12 December, according to a statement. The three-day event will serve as a platform for aviation firms to network and showcase their latest offerings. Some regional operators that will be in attendance include Saudia Private, Qatar Executive, Mukamalah Aviation Company, and Jet Aviation.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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