Good morning, wonderful people. We have another relatively busy issue for you today, leading with news of Dubai’s massive infrastructure upgrade project, as well as (yet more) M&A news — including Adnoc and Covestro entering formal negotiations after Adnoc submitted a revised takeover bid.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Dubai’s real estate market isn’t slowing down this year: Real estate and rent prices in Dubai are unlikely to “go flat” or decline this year — despite previous analyst forecasts — as transaction activity in the market remains strong, Bloomberg Middle East reporter Zeinab Fattah said (watch, runtime: 2:59). The boom in Dubai’s real estate is now expected to be sustained until 2025-2027, at which point they can begin to cool as new home deliveries begin hitting the market, Fattah said. The continued rise in rent prices reflects a shift that the “transient nature of Dubai seems to be well and over,” CBRE Group’s head of research Taimur Khan told the business information service.

Making a dent: Recent home deliveries were swiftly absorbed without impacting prices, but upcoming deliveries are anticipated to be more significant in volume. Analysts predict that around 270k homes will be delivered throughout the upcoming period.

Single-family home rentals top the price list: Since the end of 2020, city-wide property prices have surged by 60%, while rent prices have climbed by 83%. The most significant rise has been in single-family home rentals, which now average USD 96k per year.

DATA POINT- Rents in the emirate are expected to climb 10% over the next six months, Khaleej Times reports, citing Jacob Bramley, senior leasing manager at Betterhomes. The handover pipeline over the next two quarters is anticipated to sustain the “steady [rent] growth of 5-10% over the next six months,” Bramley said. Average rents across the emirate have jumped 15.7% y-o-y in 1H 2024, with apartments and townhouses rising about 15% y-o-y and villa rents seeing an 18% y-o-y surge.

The expected climb will follow a 13-quarter consecutive increase, with Dubai drawing demand “from everywhere even though the Russian buyers have declined in the market,” Prathyusha Gurrapu, head of research and advisory at Cushman & Wakefield Core told Bloomberg.

#2- Emirates Steel Arkan + Itochu kick off feasibility study on iron processing plant: Japan’s Itochu Corporation and Emirates Steel Arkan will jointly develop a new low-carbon iron processing plant in Abu Dhabi, according to a press release picked up by Zawya. The plant will be built together with Japan’s JFE Steel and will produce around 2.5 mn metric tonnes of reduced iron from 2027 onward. The supplier of iron ore will be CSN Mineracao, a Brazilian company in which Itochu has a stake.

#3- Ajman’s Department of Land and Real Estate Regulation will kick off its building classification process next Monday, 1 July, Wam reports. The initiative will see a team of specialized professionals assess buildings and real estate facilities for compliance with standards and regulations, in a bid to ensure service quality and provide transparency for investors interested in renting or purchasing property in the emirate. The process will span three months.

#4- Shanghai-based planemaker Comac has a good chance of breaking the Boeing-Airbus duopoly over the jet market within the next 10 years, CEO of aircraft lessor Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Firoz Tarapore told Reuters. Despite difficulty in obtaining certifications from European and US regulators, Comac is garnering attention as the other planemakers face labor shortages and engine issues resulting in delivery delays and disrupting airline growth plans, the newswire added. “Over the next decade COMAC has a unique opportunity to break this duopoly into a triopoly because on the one hand Airbus is sold out, and Boeing is having production problems,” Tarapore said.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS-

#1- Watch out for fraud: The Abu Dhabi Global Market’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) issued a warning against Sterwa Holdings, whose website falsely claims it is regulated by the FSRA, which the regulatory body believes could be aimed at “conducting fraud, by harvesting personal identifiable information and other credentials.”

#2- The deadline to redeem e-AED balance is the end of this week, the Finance Ministry said, according to Al Khaleej. While the Finance Ministry will be shutting down e-AED cards, they have ensured that customers can recover any of their remaining balance before 30 June. The process can be completed by submitting a request on the ministry’s website.

DATA POINT-

#1- IPOs in the UAE have raised a combined AED 4.8 bn since the beginning of the year, with total demand for the three initial public offerings of 2024 coming in at some AED 404 bn, Wam reports.

ICYMI- State-owned Parkin and supermarket chain Spinneys each debuted on the DFM this year, while Alef Education went public on the ADX earlier this month.

#2- Dubai has jumped three spots in Mercer’s cost of living leaderboard, making it the most expensive Arab city on the index and number 15 worldwide, according to Ashraq Business. Abu Dhabi is the runner-up in the ranking of Arab cities, remaining at number 43 worldwide.

#3- Around AED 1 bn is spent on developing Al Maktoum International Airport’s infrastructure annually, Dubai South CEO Khalifa Al Zaffin told CNBC Arabia in an interview. Total investments in Dubai South amount to at least AED 27 bn, with a 50%-60% contribution from the private sector, according to Zaffin. FlyDubai is expected to transfer approximately 8 to 18 aircrafts to Al Maktoum International Airport by 2026, Al Zaffin announced.

#4- Dubai saw motor ins. premiums spike due to April’s rains with Chinese car models up 26% and Japanese and Korean up 25%, Gulf News reports. German and American cars faced a 9% increase, while EVs like Tesla rose by 10-15%.

#5- Registrations for the UAE domain “.ae” surpassed 350k registrations by 2024, with some investors selling domain names at multiples of their initial cost, according to Al Bayan. While registering a domain generally costs around USD 34, some attractive domains can multiply in value. A unique domain such as “auto.ae” was sold for USD 101k in June 2022, and “invest.ae” was sold for USD 75k in August 2021.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The big business story this morning: Nvidia shares have now slid more than 16% since Thursday, when their rise briefly made the company the most valuable in the world ahead of Apple and Microsoft. The company’s shares tumbled 7% yesterday, helping drag the Nasdaq down 1.1% for the day. (The Dow Jones Index, which doesn’t include Nvidia, was up 0.7%.) That’s left traders reading sheeps’ entrails running technical analysis in search of a support line. Want to go deeper? Check out the Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg.

Climate change is still getting big play on the front pages of major global business news sites. Bloomberg looks at Saudi’s heat-preparedness after some 1.3k pilgrims died on Hajj this year and a heat dome remains parked over the US and parts of Canada. Dubai, meanwhile, will spend USD 8 bn upgrading its drainage system after rains paralyzed the emirate in April.

KEEP AN EYE ON the global logistics system, where an uptick in Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, drought in central America, and worker strikes in the United States, Canada, and Germany have “intensified upheaval in shipping.” Read: ‘It’s all happening again.’ The supply chain is under strain in the New York Times.

Briefly noted: The US and UK press are trumpeting that Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is set to be freed after striking a plea bargain with the United States. And former European Investment Bank President Werner Hoyer is under investigation for corruption.

ELECTION WATCH- French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal takes on his two top challengers in a debate today, with President Emmanuel Macron warning of “civil war” if the far-right or far-left win at the ballot box. The two-step parliamentary election process starts on Sunday.

Up next: Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer face off in a debate tomorrow, while Joe Biden and Donald Trump will clash on Thursday.

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