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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the UAE’s hydrocarbon sector to grow 6.7% next year, up from just 0.3% growth this year on the back of Opec+’s oil production cuts, according to its GCC Economic Prospects report (pdf). This comes as the oil cartel plans to unwind oil production cuts as of 2Q 2025, with the UAE also given a higher quota to increase production by 300k bbl / d gradually from April 2025. The IMF sees non-oil growth coming in at 5.3% this year and slowing slightly to 4.5% next year.
Meanwhile, the Fund sees overall GDP growing at 4% this year, reverting to its initial forecast after revising it downwards to 3.7% in its latest Article IV consultation report. The Fund also revised upwards its forecast for next year to 5.1%, up from 5% earlier.
It maintained its headline inflation forecast for this year at 2.3%, and for next year at 2.1%, as well as its forecast for an 8.8% current account surplus.
THE REGIONAL PICTURE-
GCC economies are also set to benefit from the dual momentum of oil sector recovery and strong non-oil sector growth, according to the report. Real GDP for the region is projected to rebound by 1.4% this year, from 0.8% growth in 2023, expanding further to 3.5% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. The medium-term outlook remains favorable, with non-oil sector growth underpinned by reform implementation and diversification efforts.
The fiscal stance is expected to tighten over the medium term for all GCC countries, while public debt is projected to remain “moderate and stable” in most of the region over the next four years. The IMF recommends additional fiscal consolidation, while focusing on non-hydrocarbon revenue mobilization such as boosting tax revenue, rationalizing the public wage bill, and continuing subsidy reforms.
The IMF stresses the need to set fiscal anchors and operational rules in the region through frameworks and risk statements to avoid excessive deficits and unsustainable debt. On the other hand, monetary policy transmission in the GCC needs to improve through liquidity management frameworks and by deepening domestic financial markets through local currency sovereign debt issuances, as well as green bond and sukuk issuances.
