Good morning, lovely people. It’s officially the second half of the final month of the year, and the busy conference season has made way for a busy festive season, with events across Dubai and Abu Dhabi to mark the holidays.

It’s a relatively quiet day for news in the UAE, but we have November’s inflation figures in Dubai, an acquisition from Tradeling Holding, and updates on Masdar and Amea Power’s projects abroad. Let’s dive in.

⛅WEATHER- Expect mostly sunny conditions in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with some blowing winds and a chance of light rainfall in some areas. Temperatures will hit 25°C in Dubai, before cooling to an overnight low of 18°C. Over in Abu Dhabi, the mercury will peak at a cool 22°C, with an overnight low of 18°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The UAE plans to reduce its oil shipments starting early next year to adhere to Opec+’s strategy to reinforce compliance with production targets and stabilize global prices, Bloomberg reports. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has reportedly decreased crude oil cargo allocations for certain Asian customers, cutting volumes by up to 230k barrels per day (bbl/d) across various grades, according to sources familiar with the transactions.

Official Opec+ data indicates the UAE has adhered to its quota, though some speculation of oversupply persisted among some traders, Bloomberg said.

REMEMBER- The UAE agreed to postpone an additional ramp-up of 300k bbl/d that it was previously granted due to its enhanced capabilities to April 2025, after Opec+ decided to delay a planned increase in production last week. The UAE has been hoping to increase its capacity, and is on track to hit its 5 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) oil capacity target — originally set for 2027 — by the end of 2025 or early 2026.

#2- European Commission approves Adnoc’s acquisition of Navig8: The European Commission has approved Adnoc Logistics and Services’ acquisition of an 80% stake in Navig8 and its subsidiary, Integr8, for USD 1 bn, with a deferred payment for the remaining 20% in 2027, according to a statement.

Background: Adnoc agreed to acquire the an 80% stake in Navig8 last June, pending regulatory approvals. The acquisition will boost Adnoc L&S’ services portfolio to include bunker trading, pooling and other services, as well as expand its presence to new locations. Navig8 will retain joint control over its subsidiary, Integr8 Fuels, until June 2027, Offshore Energy reports.

#3- Emaar Properties plans to distribute 100% of its share capital as dividends for in 2024 and for the following few years as part of a new dividend policy, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The developer will pay AED 8.8 bn in dividends, double what it paid in 2023, according to a separate press release.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) expanded its EV charging network to over 740 points across Dubai, Wam reports. This comes as EV adoption in Dubai reached over 34k cars as of October.

#2- The UAE’s non-oil foreign trade with its six comprehensive economic partnership agreement partners reached AED 180 bn in 1H 2024, Al Khaleej reports, citing data from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Center. This represents about 13% of the country’s total foreign trade during the period, with imports accounting for AED 97 bn, exports for AED 50 bn, and re-exports for AED 32.2 bn. The biggest trading partners during the period were India (AED 103.4 bn), Turkey (AED 60 bn), and Indonesia (AED 10.8 bn).

PSAs-

#1- Qualifying public benefit entities (QPBE) — offering social welfare and other services — need to apply for corporate tax exemption by 18 December, according to a DIFC announcement.

#2- You can now manage freight transport through Logisty: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority, in partnership with logistics and transportation company TruKKer, will launch Logisty, its new platform for booking on-demand freight transport and managing vehicle fleets, this month, Wam reports.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s interest rate week in the United States, with the Federal Reserve set to hold its final meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will follow suit on Thursday.

Expect the Fed to sound a note of caution. The expectation since Donald Trump cruised to victory last month is now for fewer rate cuts over a longer period of time. A quarter-point cut this week seems fairly likely (though less so than before US voters returned The Donald to office), but the swaps market is pricing in just 0.75 bps worth of cuts by next September, suggesting we could see as few as two 0.25 bps cuts next year. The FT has more on what to expect from the three meetings.

#2- Aims will take place on 16-20 December at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The conference focuses on pure and applied analysis, differential equations, and dynamical systems, covering a wide range of applications in fields such as biology, chemistry, physics, finance, and industrial mathematics.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a mixed bag in the global press this morning, with major geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, a downbeat warning on the USD, and a once-in-a-century storm all getting ink.

Israel announced plans to expand its population in the Golan Heights, citing the strategic importance of the area. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to increase its presence in the occupied Golan Heights despite international backlash — “strengthening the Golan is strengthening the State of Israel, and it is especially important at this time. We will continue to hold onto it,” he said in a statement. (Reuters | BBC | Financial Times | Washington Post)

MEANWHILE – Cyclone Chido hits Mayotte: The most powerful storm to hit the French Indian Ocean area of Mayotte in over a century, Cyclone Chido hit the French archipelago last night leaving hundreds dead before heading to Mozambique. In Mayotte local officials fear the death toll could reach thousands as emergency crews struggle with destroyed infrastructure and disrupted communications. (Reuters | BBC | CNN | The Guardian | New York Times)

AND- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is hoping to lose a confidence vote today in the Bundestag in a bid to trigger snap elections on 23 February.

IN BUSINESS NEWS- Trump policies will likely change how investors feel about the USD, Bloomberg writes, explaining that the greenback will likely face pressures next year on the back of president-elect Donald Trump’s policies and upcoming rate cuts. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase see the USD peaking mid-2025 before falling.

SIGN OF THE TIMES? Shares of OQ Base Industries fell 3.6% in Oman yesterday, becoming the third regional IPO in a row to disappoint in their trading debut. Talabat’s USD 2 bn IPO saw its shares on the Dubai Financial Market dip 7% on opening day, while shares of retailer Lulu closed flat in their first day on the ADX.

Background: State-owned OQ sold a 49% stake in methanol producer OQ Base Industries in a transaction worth USD 489 mn before the start of trading, pricing the offering at the top of the range.

Advisors: Morgan Stanley, Bank Dhofar and Bank Muscat quarterbacked the offering.

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