Good morning, lovely people. We have yet another packed issue for you this morning, led with news of a take-private transaction from Mubadala Capital and the Federal National Council’s approval of the UAE’s federal budget for next year. Plus: We have a couple of interesting reports on the banking sector in 3Q 2024.

WEATHER- It’s yet another warm and sunny day in Dubai, with temperatures hitting 33°C before cooling to an overnight low of 24°C. Over in Abu Dhabi, the mercury is set to hit 29°C before cooling to 23°C.

🌧️Starting tomorrow, expect potential dust storms and rainfall, especially in Northern, Western, and Eastern areas, the National Center of Meteorology forecasts (pdf), along with a drop in temperatures come Thursday.

FIRST- The UAE’s Interior Ministry launched investigations with three suspects arrested for the murder of Israeli-Moldovan rabbi Zvi Kogan, Wam reports. The three perpetrators — Olimboy Tohirovich, Makhmudjon Abdurakhim, and Azizbek Kamilovich — are all Uzbek nationals. Meanwhile, Iran dismissed allegations of its involvement in the incident, The Times of Israel reports. Israel previously recommended that residents avoid non-essential travel to the UAE for the time being.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Adnoc hinted that it is considering floating additional shares for Adnoc Gas on the ADX to boost liquidity and bring more investors on board, according to a disclosure to the ADX (pdf). No final decision has been made on the size and timing of the potential sale, Adnoc added.

IN CONTEXT- This came in the wake of rumors that Adnoc is mulling the sale of a 3-5% stake in its gas unit, which could be worth some USD 3.5 bn based on its share price at Friday’s close. The sale would follow a similar sale of a 5.5% stake in Adnoc Drilling for USD 935 mn to institutional investors in May, which paved the way for the drilling unit to join the MSCI Emerging Market Index.

#2- The UAE is on track to claim the second-largest share of investment banking fees in the Middle East this year, with fees up 10% y-o-y through 13 November at USD 478 mn, marking its second-best year so far, according to LSEG data cited by the IFR. The country is second only to Saudi Arabia, which saw its investment banking fees grow 44% y-o-y during the period to reach USD 493 mn.

Other metrics: Debt capital market fees in the UAE rose 35% y-o-y through mid-November to USD 131 mn, while those in Saudi Arabia added 46% to USD 156 mn. Meanwhile, equity capital market fees in the UAE dropped to USD 98 mn, while those in Saudi Arabia doubled to USD 168 mn.

#3- UBS Global Wealth Management expects the UAE’s non-oil GDP to grow 4.7% in 2024 and the oil GDP to grow 4.2% in 2025, CIO Michael Bolliger told Wam. The positive outlook for the non-oil sector is attributed to the booming tourism and real estate sectors, increased government spending on capital projects, and higher inflows of foreign direct investments. Bolliger previously forecast that the UAE’s GDP will top 5% in 2025, matching the IMF’s latest projections.

REMEMBER- Fitch expects the non-oil sector to grow at a 5% clip this year, down from 6.2% growth last year, citing increasing borrowing costs as contributing to the slowdown, in addition to rising living costs driven by increasing rents in Dubai. Meanwhile, Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri expects non-oil GDP to grow at a 4.9% clip.

#4- Real estate demand in Dubai is expected to continue to exceed supply levels before supply increases to bridge the gap in 2027, Head of Research at JLL Taimur Khan told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 9:18). Khan expects the number of transactions this year to reach 180k, with the boom in real estate investments expected to drive sizable transactions into real estate investment trusts in the near future.

#5- Masdar is in the race to develop renewables projects in KSA: The Saudi Power Procurement Company prequalified renewables giant Masdar, along with 15 other developers, for the sixth round of solar and wind projects under its National Renewable Energy Program, according to a statement.

This has been in the works: The company issued requests for qualification (RFQs) for five wind and solar projects in September. This round will add a combined capacity of 4.5 GW to Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy portfolio. Key projects in this round include the 1.5 GW Dawadmi Wind IPP in Riyadh and four solar PV projects: a 1.4 GW plant in Najran, 600 MW each in Samtah and Ad Darb in Jizan, and a 400 MW plant in Hail.

PSA-

Family businesses in Sharjah will now be required to hold an incorporation contract after the Sharjah Executive Council (SEC) began to implement its executive decision, which it passed last month, to regulate family businesses within the emirate, Wam reports. The decision aims to set up a legal framework for family businesses’ organization and governance, including mechanisms for resolving disputes. It also covers regulations on ownership, share disposal by partners, share classifications, family endowment businesses, family charters, and processes for liquidation.

The decision applies to family businesses formed within the emirate, existing companies owned by single-family members, and family enterprises in freezones.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan kicks off a visit to Bahrain today, at the invitation of Bahrain’s PM and Crown Prince Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The visit aims to ramp up bilateral relations between the UAE and Bahrain, focusing on economic collaboration, potential investments, and developmental initiatives. We have more news from other UAE officials’ visit to Bahrain in Diplomacy, below.

ALSO- Philippine President Bongbong Marcos arrived in the UAE this morning for a working visit, with plans to meet UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi, the Manila Times reports. The visit should result in several agreements that would deepen ties between the countries, the news outlet said.

#1- Open Source AI Summit will take place today and tomorrow at The St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort in Abu Dhabi. The event will feature discussions on prospects for open-source artificial intelligence, as well as challenges, ethical considerations, governance, and international cooperation.

#2- The Gulf Capital Market Summit will take place today at the Address Sky View in Dubai. The event will focus on debt and equity markets. Participants will include investors, issuers, market practitioners, and officials who will address key issues that will influence the future of the markets.

#3- The Global Food Security Summit will take place today and tomorrow as part of Global Food Week at the Adnec center in Abu Dhabi. The event will focus on biosecurity and agriculture in arid environments, as well as innovative and sustainable agricultural practices, including the application of artificial intelligence. The Global Food Week will also include the Abu Dhabi International Food Exhibition and coffee and palm festivals.

#4- The Global Women’s Forum will take place today and tomorrowat Madinat Jumeriah in Dubai. The forum will feature over 60 sessions with participation from 100 leaders and influencers globally.

#5- Livable Cities X will kick off today and wrap on Thursday, 28 November at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event will feature discussions with key players driving efforts to enhance sustainability, resilience, and livability in urban environments. Participants will engage with experts to discuss innovative solutions for urban challenges.

#6- Future FM Exhibition will kick off today and wrap on Thursday, 28 November at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event will gather facility management experts and will discuss digital solutions within the industry to boost efficiency and sustainability.

#7- GeoWorld Summit will kick off today and wrap on Thursday at the Dubai World Trade Center. The forum will focus on exploring the latest trends in geospatial technologies and providing solutions based on data analysis and visualization to business leaders and governments.

#8- The Global Media Congress 2024 will also kick off today and wrap on Thursday, 28 November at Abu Dhabi’s Adnec Center. The event will bring together leaders and notable figures in the media industry to discuss the latest trends and technologies in the sector.

#9- The Big 5 Global Exhibition kicks off today and wraps on Friday, 29 November at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibition will feature key players and experts in the construction industry to discuss recent innovations and showcase available investment prospects.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

The RAK Energy Summit 2024 will take place on 27-28 November at the Al Hamra International Exhibition and Convention Center. The summit will bring together renewable energy experts and decision-makers to discuss energy transition and decarbonization efforts in the GCC region. It will also explore topics such as AI, future energy transport, and energy storage.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Abu Dhabi hotels welcomed 4.3 mn guests in 9M 2024, up from 4 mn during the same period in 2019, Undersecretary of Abu Dhabi’s Department of Culture and Tourism Saood Abdulaziz Al Hosani told Al Etihad. Hotel occupancy rates reached 77% in 9M 2024, up from 70% in the same period in 2023, with international visitors comprising 50% of the total guests, Al Hosani added.

Key markets contributing to this growth included India, China, Russia, the UK, and Saudi Arabia. The emirate is targeting 2.7 mn international visitors by the end of 2024, he said.

#2- The UAE came among ten countries worldwide that halved its road fatality rates, in line with the global goal set for 2021-2030, Khaleej Times reports. Still, the country ranked the second highest globally for road traffic death rate among younger populations below 45 years.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Truce in Lebanon coming soon? Israel and Hezbollah are expected to clinch a ceasefire agreement “within days” following US and French-mediated negotiations, with the Israeli cabinet set to vote on an agreement later today. The agreement is likely to pass, officials say, particularly as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is “under pressure” from Washington to push through a ceasefire by the end of this week. The two sides made “significant progress” towards a pact despite some sticking points — including Israel looking to secure the right to strike southern Lebanon regardless of the ceasefire — and while Israel continued to hammer Beirut with more deadly attacks. (Reuters | New York Times | Bloomberg | Wall Street Journal)

ACROSS THE POND- The international press is also giving top billing to US president-elect Donald Trump’s vow to slap China, Mexico, and Canada with fresh tariffs once he’s in office. In two separate posts on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump said he plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods coming in from Canada and Mexico and 10% for all imported Chinese goods as a punitive measure for illegal drug trading and immigration issues. (CNBC | Politico | Financial Times | WSJ | Reuters | Bloomberg | NYT)

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OIL WATCH-

Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude prices staying at USD 70-85 per barrel this year, despite a supply deficit and geopolitical turmoil, Reuters reports, citing a note from the bank. Goldman maintained its 2025 Brent forecast at an average of USD 76 / bbl, potentially rising to the mid-USD 80s in 1H 2025 if Iranian oil supply drops amid stricter sanctions. For 2026, Goldman trimmed its forecast to USD 71 / bbl, anticipating a surplus of 0.9 mn barrels per day (bbl / d).

Sustained demand momentum: “While there is ample spare capacity in oil production, we expect refining to remain quite tight and gasoline and diesel margins to recover further,” the investment bank said, adding that long-term demand for oil remains strong due to rising energy demand, GDP growth, and ongoing challenges in decarbonization efforts across aviation and petrochemical sectors.

PLUS- Is Opec+ set for a third consecutive online meeting? Opec+ may opt for an online meeting for its upcoming gathering on 1 December in Vienna as most delegates have not received in-person invitations yet, Bloomberg reports citing sources it says are in the know. Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are doubtful that Opec+ will follow through with output increases this year, estimating that it could lead to prices dropping below USD 60 / bbl, a scenario that would strain Saudi Arabia’s finances.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The International Desalination and Water Reuse World Congress will take place between 8-12 December at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The event will feature discussions on innovations in water desalination and reuse technologies, decarbonization efforts, integrated water resources management, and best practices for rationalizing water consumption.

The WORLDEF Dubai 2024 forum will take place on 4-5 December at Dubai CommerCity. The event will gather over 5k representatives from leading organizations in digital commerce.

The European Arab Medical Congress will take place on 11-12 December at the headquarters of Zayed Higher Organisation for People of Determination in Abu Dhabi. Hosted by the Emirates Scholar Center for Research and Studies, the event will host 50 speakers and feature 40 scientific sessions covering the latest innovations in medicine and medical technology.

The Arab Health Exhibition 2025 will take place between 27-30 January at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibit aims to showcase the latest tech solutions to challenges in the healthcare sector. Over 3.8k companies will participate, including healthcare giant PureHealth and state-owned health-tech firm M42.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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