Good morning, wonderful people. It’s already shaping up to be a busy week as President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan gears up to attend his first Brics summit, and Lulu Group kicks off its IPO roadshow. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- The National Center of Meteorology forecasts (pdf) cloudy, foggy weather this week.Today, expect temperatures to peak at 37°C in Dubai before cooling to an overnight low of 30°C. The mercury in Abu Dhabi is set to hit 32°C before cooling a bit to 30°C overnight.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Alternative investment Summit kicks off today and runs through tomorrow at the Jumeirah Emirates Towers. The event will bring together key decision makers and professionals interested in the alternative investment space, with Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson set to attend.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will attend the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, which kicks off tomorrow and runs until Thursday. This marks the UAE’s first participation in the summit since its formal admission as a member last year.

Al Nahyan is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit, according to the Kremlin’s website. The two leaders will discuss bilateral ties and the situation in the region, according to the statement. They will also discuss trade, which Putin said has tripled in the past three years, despite seeing a slight decline over the past seven months. The Kremlin also said bilateral investments between the two countries has reached USD 7 bn.

ALSO- More Brics expansion to come? Putin said the “doors are open” for some 30 countries that have expressed interest in joining the alliance, which he says will spearhead global economic growth in the foreseeable future, Reuters reports.

#2- The Foreseeing Government Audit Future Conference will take place on 24 October at Madinat Jumeirah, Wam reports. Organized by the Financial Audit Authority, the event will be held under the theme “Tomorrow’s Auditor” and will gather key figures, senior officials, and experts in auditing, finance, and economics to discuss the future of government auditing.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- LuLu Group puts on investor roadshow as it preps for IPO: Supermarket chain LuLu Group will kick off its investor roadshow today to market its IPO on the ADX, after scrapping dual-listing plans that would have included Riyadh’s Tadawul, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The company is targeting a valuation of at least USD 5 bn for its Abu Dhabi listing, the sources said. Another source said that the company could be looking to offer a 25% stake.

ADVISORS– Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Citigroup, Emirates NBD Capital and HSBC Holdings are working on the offering. Moelis & Co. is also reportedly acting as an independent financial adviser.

REFRESHER- LuLu Group reportedly tapped advisors in March to work on its planned IPO on the ADX this year. It was reported in September that the company is eyeing the last week of October or early November for the listing. While Lulu has yet to decide on the final details of the offering, it reportedly could be looking to raise between USD 1.5-1.85 bn, potentially making it the biggest IPO of the year.

#2- Dubai-based private equity firm Gateway Partners is reportedly looking to sell its stake in the Gulf franchise of Tim Hortons, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The firm has reportedly tapped BNP Paribas to work on the sale, which could see non-binding bids come in over the coming weeks, the sources added.

Background: Gateway acquired a 40% stake in Tim Hortons’ Gulf franchise for USD 50 mn in 2020. The franchise currently has 300 outlets across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to its website.

#3- The National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) sees the UAE’s oil sector growing by 7.8% in 2025, rebounding after moderate 0.4% growth in 2024, supported by the planned phase-out of Opec+ supply cuts starting December this year, according to a report (pdf). Oil production is expected to reach 3.4 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) by the end of 2025, the bank said.

REMEMBER- The UAE is reportedly on track to hit its 5 mn bbl / d oil capacity target by the end of 2025 or early 2026, ahead of the original 2027 goal set by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc). The country has USD 30 bn worth of oil and gas projects in the pipeline, the report notes, citing Meed estimates.

The bank expects the country’s GDP to grow at a 5.1% clip in 2025, up from 3.3% projected for 2024. The non-oil sector is expected to maintain its 4% growth from 2024 into next year, driven by the UAE’s expansion into private credit and increased investment inflows, particularly with regard to the financial and real estate markets. “Looser monetary policy, relatively low inflation, and a rising population should also be supportive of consumer activity over the forecast period,” NBK said.

#4- The consulting industry is expected to keep making strides in the Gulf, with the region ranking among the strongest globally based on revenue and profitability for consultancy giants McKinsey & Co. and Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The sector is benefitting from significant government investments in nation-building and development projects, with firms like McKinsey and BCG ramping up their presence in the region.

Fast facts: The growth of the sector increased 4x as fast as the global 3% growth the sector saw in 2023, the business information service said.

Dubai has led the wave of consultancy firms flocking to the region, becoming a hub for international b’naires, with other emirates to follow suit as they ramp up their development plans, which could bring even more business to consulting firms operating in the region

#5- Global vaccine alliance Gavi is turning to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, among other GCC states, for funding as aid budgets in traditional European donors — including Germany, the UK, and France — shrink, Gavi’s CEO Sania Nishtar told Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, which “have not traditionally supported in a massive way,” have now pledged USD 267 mn to Gavi, Nishtar said. “Collectively, the group of Gulf donors have been a set of rising players that are worth watching,” Janeen Madan Keller, deputy director of the Center for Global Development’s global health-policy program, told the news agency.

Background:The UAE has pledged USD 50 mn to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria since 2020.

Still, the GCC states remain small donors compared to traditional G7 countries — such as the US — which has pledged USD 1.58 bn to Gavi toward the latest funding round. Major global health funds are looking to raise approximately USD 100 bn by the end of next year.

#7- Abu Dhabi’s SDF financing talks with Reaction Engines have hit a snag: Negotiations between Abu Dhabi-based Strategic Development Fund (SDF) and UK aerospace engine tech manufacturer Reaction Engines to back the British firm have stalled, Sky News reports, citing people familiar with the matter. While the reasons for the stalled talks remain undisclosed, sources indicate that the situation is “fluid and could be resolved.”

Previous discussions had positioned SDF to become Reaction Engines’ largest shareholder. However, with insolvency looming, the British manufacturer is now actively pursuing alternative investment options to avert insolvency.

Reaction Avenues is in a tight spot: The firm tapped SDF — already one of its investors — in September, along with other existing backers, to raise up to GBP 20 mn, after posting sluggish revenue growth and losses this year. If Reaction Engines fails to raise the funds “within days,” accountancy firm PwC will step in as administrator, according to Sky News.

PSAs-

#1- Al Warqa’a roads to get an overhaul: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) is constructing new entrance and exit points for Al Warqa’a from Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road, aiming to cut travel time by 80%, down to 3.5 minutes, according to a Dubai Media Office statement.This project will also boost road capacity by 5k vehicles per hour and shorten the travel distance to 1.5 km from 5.7 km.

#2- Emirates extended the suspension of flights to and from Iran and Iraq until 23 October, according to a travel update. The airline had initially suspended flights to both destinations until 16 October.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The UAE’s spending on information and communications tech is projected to hit AED 84 bn in 2024, Emarat Al Youm reports, citing a recent report by Abu Dhabi-based InterRegional for Strategic Analysis.

#2- The UAE maintained its ranking as the GCC’s second-largest projects market, securing 18.8% of the USD 52.2 bn aggregate contract value in the region during 3Q 2024, according to a report (pdf) by Kamco Invest.

Despite this, the UAE saw a 61.5% y-o-y slump in awarded contracts during the quarter, falling to USD 10 bn, their lowest level in nine quarters. Construction projects fell by 52.5% y-o-y to USD 5.6 bn in 3Q, compared to USD 11.7 bn during the same period last year. Despite the slump, the construction sector’s share of total contracts grew to 55.4% of the total.

Gas sector projects soared 2.6x y-o-y to USD 1.6 bn, while oil sector contracts rose 8.2% y-o-y to USD 1.2 bn. Key contracts included Adnoc’s USD 400 mn engineering, procurement, and construction contract to a consortium of mostly Abu Dhabi-based firms for the Abu Dhabi airport tank farm.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel’s ongoing battering of Lebanon and Gaza is still getting top billing in the foreign press, as it shifts its focus to sites it says are linked with Hezbollah’s financial operations in Lebanon, Reuters reports. Israel launched the bombing campaign yesterday, sending hundreds of Beirut residents fleeing from their homes.

The attacks come a day after a drone reportedly exploded near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home and only a few days after Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar’s killing is also fueling speculations over where the war could go next, with some expecting more attempts towards a ceasefire, despite Hezbollah vowing more retaliation against Israel, Semafor reports.

OVER IN EUROPE- Moldovan President Maia Sandu is accusing “foreign forces” of interfering with a crucial vote to decide if the country will join the EU, after most votes were counted showing a 53% majority voting “no” to the referendum. Still, the decision remains too close to call due to the tight margin and the impact of votes among the large Moldovan diaspora. (Financial Times | The Guardian | Reuters)

AND FURTHER EAST- Indonesian ex-military general Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as president yesterday, vowing to tackle corruption and accelerate economic growth in the country during his time in office. (Reuters | France24)

AND IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- US stocks are expected to continue their rally through to the end of the year despite the impact of US elections, with the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey forecasting the S&P 500 to end the year at a new record.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Lease Conference Dubai 2024 will take place on 13-14 November at the Jumeirah Creekside Hotel. The event will bring together key players in the leasing industry across the Middle East and Africa.

EFG Hermes will host its annual One on One Conference from 7 to 10 April 2025 in Dubai. The largest gathering of its kind in the MENA region, the conference connects hundreds of international corporate leaders with institutional investors and family offices from around the world.

Check out our full calendar (at the bottom of this email) for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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