Good morning, friends, and happy FRIDAY. It’s another busy day of news here at home — what else is new? — with PMI data out signaling some loss of momentum in the non-oil sector, more signs that the Dubai property market is red-hot with a slew of new investments, and a new debt issuance from Taqa. Let’s dive in.

☀️WEATHER- It’s another hot and sunny day in Dubai, with temperatures hitting 38°C before cooling to an overnight low of 30°C. Over in Abu Dhabi, the mercury is set to hit 34°C before cooling to 31°C.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan arrived in Cairo yesterday with a high-level delegation for a working visit aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and finding new prospects for cooperation between the UAE and Egypt, state news agency Wam reports. The president was received by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.

#2- The NBA returns to Abu Dhabi today and on Sunday at the Etihad Arena on Yas Island, marking the third game series to be held in the UAE. This year’s preseason matchup features the Boston Celtics taking on the Denver Nuggets, part of the NBA’s four international showcases this season.

PSAs-

#1- Resident legal entities with licenses issued in August and September of any year should submit their corporate tax registration applications by the end of October, the Federal Tax Authority said. Registrations can be made via the EmaraTax digital tax services platform or through accredited tax agents and government service centers across the UAE. Corporates with multiple licenses should register using the license with the earliest issuance date.

#2- Flydubai and Etihad resume flights as Emirates and Air Arabia extend suspensions amid regional unrest: Budget airline flydubai resumed flights from Dubai to Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Jordan today, Khaleej Times reported, citing a company spokesperson. Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways also resumed flights to Tel Aviv yesterday. The airline has suspended its flights to Beirut until 8 October, according to a network update.

Emirates extends flight suspensions: Emirates extended its suspension of flights to Basra, Baghdad, Tehran, and Amman until 5 October, and will not operate flights to Beirut until 8 October, due to regional unrest, Gulf News reports. Meanwhile, Air Arabia’s flights between Sharjah and Beirut remain indefinitely suspended.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Dubai saw 801 new greenfield projects worth over AED 21.85 bn in 1H 2024, accounting for 6.2% of global greenfield foreign direct investment projects during the period, Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said in a statement posted on X, citing Financial Times’ fDi Markets data.

Background: The UAE attracted around USD 30.7 bn of FDI inflows for greenfield projects in 2023, representing 45.4% of total foreign direct investment inflows in the region.

#2- Food trade grew by 20% y-o-y in 1H, with imports up 23% y-o-y and exports rising 19% y-o-y, Al Khaleej reports, citing data from the Economy Ministry. The country imported AED 84.4 bn (USD 23 bn) in food in 2023, while food exports reached AED 24.24 bn (USD 6.6 bn).

The country aims to kick up the food sector’s contribution to GDP to USD 10 bn by 2030, while slashing food imports from 90% to 50% by 2050, Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri said at the Future Food summit earlier this week, Wam reported.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Fujairah ruler explores energy cooperation with TotalEnergies: Fujairah ruler Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammed Al Sharqi met with a delegation from TotalEnergies to discuss cooperation in energy infrastructure between the Fujairah government and the French oil giant, Wam reports. Key issues in the energy sector were also addressed.

#2- The UAE is on track to achieve a budget surplus of 2.4% in 2025, backed by some AED 348 bn in public sector projects underway by the end of September, Al Bayan reports, citing a note from Emirates NBD. The bank attributes the forecasted surplus to anticipated declines in oil prices, coupled with the UAE’s position as the largest GCC country with diversified income sources, allowing the government leeway in pursuing its investment strategies.

#3- Dubai’s new education strategy will aim to increase school capacity by at least 49k seats, and add 3k Emirati teachers to the workforce, the Knowledge and Human Development Authority said, according to the Dubai Media Office. The plan also targets a 90% satisfaction rate among parents regarding educational options available, as well as a tenfold increase in education tourism, with hopes of attracting more international universities to Dubai.

Background: Dubai’s Executive Council approved E33 on Wednesday, focusing on strengthening the education system through the expansion of internationally accredited vocational institutions aligned with “national priorities.”

#4- State-owned renewable energy developer Masdar is expected to issue its third green bond in 2025 to fund its upcoming global renewable energy projects, the renewables giant’s CFO Maiz Khan told The National. The exact size of the bond will depend on the project pipeline, but is likely to be similar to previous issuances, he said.

Background: In July, Masdar raised USD 1 bn through its second green bond issuance, while its first issuance last year raised USD 750 mn.

OIL WATCH-

Oil prices could fall “marginally” in 2025 due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the region, Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, told CNBC (watch, runtime, 2:05). Ballard’s remarks came in response to Opec+ dismissing a Wall Street Journal report citing the Saudi energy minister as saying that oil prices will fall from the current USD 70 per barrel to USD 50 if the oil cartel’s members fail to adhere to production cuts.

REMEMBER- Opec+ kept its policy unchanged on its planned oil production target, including plans to phase out supply cuts by December, putting it on course for a 180k barrels per day (bbl / d) hike by the end of the year.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel’s ongoing campaign in the region is still getting the most attention in the foreign press this morning — alongside an update on the US port strike.

Israel bombed more than a dozen of what it says are Hezbollah targets in Beirut, with some Israeli reports saying former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s successor, Hashem Safieddin, was among the targets of the airstrikes — though whether or not he was killed has yet to be confirmed. The airstrikes followed an attack on a medical facility the previous day in Central Beirut, which killed nine people, and a slew of attacks over the past week, among which have killed Nasrallah.

Meanwhile, in Palestine, Israel carried out a strike on a West Bank cafe, killing 18 people — an attack that Palestinian news agency Wafa says was the largest in the West Bank in 24 years, and which Israel said killed several Hamas operatives. (Bloomberg | The Guardian)

Speculation over Israel’s potential retaliation on Iran following Iran’s missile barrage over the former earlier this week — itself a retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah — also continues, with US President Joe Biden sending oil prices into jitters after saying he and Israel are “in discussion” over the latter potentially targeting Iran’s oil facilities as a form of retaliation. Brent crude rose more than 7% to settle at USD 77.62 per barrel — its highest level in over a month. (Financial Times | Reuters)

Gulf states are trying to de-escalate tensions: GCC officials reassured Iran of their neutrality amid growing tensions between Tehran and Israel during meetings in Qatar this week, expressing concerns that escalating violence could jeopardize their oil facilities, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. Ministers from the GCC and Iran in attendance focused on the need for de-escalation following Iran’s recent strikes on Israel.

The main concern? Oil facilities: While Iran has not explicitly made any threats, it has warned that any direct involvement from Israel’s allies could lead to their interests in the region being targeted, with some unofficial sources “dropping hints” that oil facilities could be targeted under those circumstances, the newswire said.

OVER IN THE US- A port strike that threatened to cost the country bns in trade revenues has ended for now after workers and port operators reached a wage hike agreement. (Reuters | WSJ | AP | CNN)

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