Good morning, lovely people, and welcome to the busiest issue we’ve had in a long time.

We have major updates on several M&A stories, including the closing of Mubadala’s acquisition of a 58% stake of US asset manager Fortress, following a year-long probe, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s play for a stake in Malaysia Airports, which it is helping Malaysian investors privatize.

It’s also a busy day for investment news, with Tecom approving an AED 1.7 bn acquisition and development plan to boost office and industrial space in Dubai, Shorooq Partners launching its second venture debt fund, and DP World inaugurating USD 130 mn in investments in Romania.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The three acquisitions Adnoc Drilling is working on could be completed in 2Q 2024 or early 3Q, Adnoc Drilling CFO Youssef Salem confirmed to EnterpriseAM UAE. The company is focusing its expansion efforts on Europe and the US, he said, adding that some USD 750 mn of the USD 1.5 bn allocated towards its JV with Alpha Dhabi will be used for the acquisitions.

REMEMBER- We reported earlier that the company plans to acquire three tech firms through its tech venture with Alpha Dhabi this year. It’s also eyeing acquisitions of drilling firms to expand its foothold in neighboring countries such as Kuwait and Oman, Salem revealed.

ICYMI- Adnoc Drilling has already formed a USD 1.5 bn JV with Alpha Dhabi in January for global investments in energy technology and the enhancement of tech-enabled energy services. Adnoc Drilling holds a 51% majority share in the JV, with Alpha Dhabi owning the remaining 49%.

#2- Masdar makes progress on USD 11 bn wind project in Egypt: The Egyptian government inked a land access agreement with Masdar, Infinity Power, and Hassan Allam Utilities for their USD 11 bn 10 GW wind farm project in Sohag, according to a joint statement (pdf) released yesterday. The windfarm is expected to produce 47.7k GWh of clean energy every year, reducing natural gas consumption in Egypt. The plant is estimated to offset nearly 24 mn tons of CO2 emissions each year.

What’s next: The consortium in charge of the project will now be able conduct surveys and studies needed before beginning construction.

#3- China-Gulf trade agreement in jeopardy? Trade talks between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China are hitting a wall as Saudi Arabia remains concerned that low-cost Chinese products could hinder its efforts to boost domestic manufacturing and become an industrial powerhouse, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The agreement is not yet entirely off the table, but will require compromises from both sides of the table to move forward, the sources said.

The last stretch is proving the hardest: Chinese officials said earlier this year that while talks were “90%” of the way there, a number of difficult issues were still on the table. Trade talks first began 20 years ago but lapsed without a conclusion.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Airport Show is on its final day todayat the Dubai World Trade Center. The event brings together airport suppliers, airport service providers, aviation executives, and regional decision makers to explore current innovations and new technologies.

#2- Seamless Middle East is also on its final day at theDubai World Trade Center. The three-day event includes a conference welcoming over 500 speakers to cover the latest trends, market disruptors, and technologies in digital commerce, and a multi-brand exhibition hosting over 700 exhibitors in the digital commerce industry.

#3- The Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association Supply Chain Conference wraps today at the Address Sky View Hotel in Dubai. The conference will bring together industry players under the theme Harnessing Connectivity for a Sustainable Tomorrow, discussing supply chain connectivity and AI integration in the industry.

#4- Critical Communications World 2024 is on its final day todayat the Dubai World Trade Center. The three-day event welcomed 150 guests and representatives from leading companies under the theme Securing Society and Industry — Connection is the Lifeline, discussing emerging technologies in telecommunications, public safety, and city services.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Driving the conversation in the global business press this morning: Major Wall Street benchmarks hit a fresh high yesterday as traders welcomed promising US inflation data. We have the story in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

MEANWHILE, IN GAZA- Israel has started sending troops into Rafah in what Bloomberg believes is the beginning of a “full-blow invasion.” The Israeli military has given advance warnings to Rafah citizens as tanks and infantry make their way into the eastern part of the city bordering Egypt. The move is visibly ramping up tensions with Egypt, the European Union, and the United States.

AN ARAB ROLE IN POST-WAR GAZA? The Biden administration is in talks with Egypt, the UAE, and Morocco about their potential participation in a “peacekeeping force” that would deploy in Gaza following the war, the Financial Times writes. The three Arab nations are considering the initiative but “they would want the US to recognise a Palestinian state first,” a western official told the salmon-colored paper. Saudi Arabia has straight up rejected the idea all together.

ELSEWHERE IN GLOBAL POLITICS- You’re going to be hearing a lot about Russia-China ties in the next couple of days. Vladimir Putin is in Beijing today and tomorrow to meet Xi Jinping. The Financial Times worries in its Big Read that Moscow and Beijing represent “an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world.”

PLUS- A handful of stories in global politics about which you should know:

OIL WATCH- The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand. It now sees global demand rising by 1.1 mn bpd in 2024 — 140k bpd less than last month’s projections — pointing to weaker demand particularly in Europe. This stands in stark contrast to OPEC’s forecast (pdf) that oil demand will rise by 2.25 mn bpd in 2024.

SPEAKING OF OIL- Opec’s forecast for strong global oil demand in 2024 remain “broadly unchanged,” it said in its monthly report (pdf), saying it expects oil demand to grow by 2.25 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) this year and 1.85 mn bbl / d next year. This is the last report to be released by the Vienna-based group before OPEC+ meets on 1 June to decide on whether to extend voluntary oil cuts into the second half of the year.

The calculus for forecasting world demand on crude is changing a little: Opec said it will scrap a previous approach to calculating the world’s demand of its own crude, and will instead use forecasts on “demand for DoC crude” in reference to the OPEC+ framework. The move “not only demonstrates solidarity and unity…but also helps eliminate the potential for misunderstanding and/or misinterpretations.” An OPEC+ source told Reuters last week that OPEC+ demand was more relevant since its framework was the main forum for cooperation on the oil market.

AND- The UAE is among several countries hoping to get the Opec+ coalition to revise its supply cuts strategy it meets on 1 June, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. “The UAE is very keen to raise production sooner and is arguably much better prepared to live with lower oil prices,” James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at Capital Economics, said. The country is angling to raise output in 2025, alongside Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, and Algeria.

Pundits are concerned that the difference in opinion among Opec members could potentially result in a rift reminiscent of last year’s, which culminated in Angola’s exit.

ICYMI- The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) raised its crude oil production capacity to 4.85 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) from 4.65 mn bbl/d earlier this month. The hike brings Adnoc closer to its target to boost its crude oil production capacity to reach 5 mn bbl/d by 2027.

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