FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced in a US court today, and it’s anyone’s guess how many years he’ll do in the pokey: A handful, as his lawyers have suggested, or up to five decades, as prosecutors are suggesting.

Why is it so hard to sort out? And why is the gulf between defense and prosecution sentencing recommendations so wide?

Crypto has soared since FTX melted down — its appreciation against the greenback is masking the underlying losses. Prosecutors have called the meltdown of FTX “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.” But his legal team told the judge that, in the end, everyone is being made whole through bankruptcy proceedings: “Each victim . . . will receive 100 cents on the USD, plus interest,” they say.

Customers may in fact get 40% than the initial value of their claims against FTX, the Financial Times said earlier this week, citing remarks by FTX’s bankruptcy administrators.

But, but, but… That math relies on the fact that clients who filed claims against FTX are getting their money back in USD. But their original assets were crypto, and BTC, for example, is up about 4.4x to nearly USD 70k between the time FTX’s meltdown and now. The value of the AI assets FTX held — including a nearly USD 1 bn stake in Anthropic that administrators recently sold — have also soared.

Read more in the Financial Times or head to our website for links to the Wall Street Journal | CoinDesk | CNBC


Also worth knowing about this morning:

  • From the FT’s Lex: “Donald Trump taps superfans to make Spacs great again. TMTG looks like a rightwing meme stock combined with the classic pathologies of the blank cheque bubble.”
  • There should be “no rush” to cut rates given recent US inflation data, a senior US Federal Reserve official said yesterday, though he didn’t rule out the possibility of rate hikes later this year. (Reuters)

THE MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian shares are in the red this morning while US futures were largely unchanged overnight, leaving the Dow, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 still on track to close the first quarter up 10% or more. European futures were up slightly as we slid toward dispatch time this morning, suggesting major benchmarks will open in the green later today.

Remember: Today is the last day of trading in 1Q 2024 for most Western markets, which will close Friday and Monday for the Easter holiday weekend.

ADX

9,273

-0.5% (YTD: -3.2%)

DFM

4,231

-0.3% (YTD: 4.2%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

3,716

-0.9% (YTD: -3.3%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

5.1% o/n

5.3% 1 yr

TASI

12,607

+0.2% (YTD: +5.4%)

EGX30

28,224

-2.9% (YTD: +13.4%)

S&P 500

5,248

+0.9% (YTD: +10.0%)

FTSE 100

7,931

0.0% (YTD: +2.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,081

+0.4% (YTD: +12.4%)

Brent crude

USD 86.31

-0.07%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 1.72

-3.9%

Gold

USD 2,194.8

+0.7%

BTC

USD 69,010.50

-1.4% (YTD: +63.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.5% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is down 3.2% YTD.

In the green: Ooredoo (+3.1%), Emsteel Building Materials (+2.8%) and Response Plus Holding (+2.4%).

In the red: The National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah (-4.6%), RAK for White Cement and Construction Materials (-3.7%) and E7 Group (-3.3%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.3% on turnover of AED 663.8 mn, while Nasdaq Dubai closed down 0.9%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

The Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) has approved thedistribution of AED 425 mn in dividends for 2H 2023, a DFM disclosure (pdf) reads.

Emirates Driving Company approved the distribution of AED 183.2 mn in cash dividends in 2023, equivalent to 34% of paid capital for the year, amountings to 17 fils per share, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

Dubai Refreshment approved a dividend payout of AED 72 mn for 2023, equivalent to 80 fils per share, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf).

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