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EFG Hermes Research’s annual One-on-One Live Poll gauged the audience’s outlook for the year in what is the only live poll we know of in frontier and emerging markets. Nearly 400 attendees had 10 seconds to respond to each of 10 questions. Below is a roundup of the key takeaways from the poll.
A majority of respondents (51%) see Dubai real estate prices ending the year higher, after they notched a record increase last year on the back of an influx of foreign wealth and strong population growth. Plenty of real estate analysts share the same view, though many think the pace of growth could slow slightly from last year’s boom.
Most respondents (62%) said they plan to invest more in their business this year than they did last year, while 19% plan to maintain the same expenditure levels as 2023 and another 19% plan to cut back.
A large portion of respondents (44%) see the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 bps — over two separate 25 bps cuts — during the year. 26% think it could cut interest rates by up to 75 bps in three separate moves.
47% believe oil prices will average around USD 80 / bbl this year, which is in line with what most pundits — including Fitch Ratings and the US Energy Information Administration — have forecast.
Respondents were evenly split on which sectors will drive growth in the MENA region this year, with 27% voting for real estate and an equal amount voting healthcare. 24% see banks performing the best during the year.
Other interesting takeaways:
- Most (44%) think the US’ S&P 500 will outperform the MSCI EM index in USD terms, in a reversal of last year’s forecast ;
- 63% of respondents see small and mid-cap stocks in Saudi Arabia outperforming large caps in line with recent trends;
- 44% of respondents think Saudi Arabia will deliver the best USD performance this year, while 25% think Egypt will;
- 34% of respondents would choose the “magnificent 7” stocks — Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla — to buy and hold for one year, while 33% would go for Saudi stocks.
Tap or click here (pdf) to see the full poll results.
