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Debt market on track to expand to >USD 300 bn in 2024-2024: Fitch Ratings expects the debt capital market to expand some 11% y-o-y to USD 300 bn (AED 1.1 tn) in 2024-2025, up from its projection in September that it will hit that milestone by the end of the decade, according to its 2024 UAE Debt Capital Markets Dashboard report.
The bullish projection comes on the back of an anticipated “diversification of funding and capital market developments,” Global Head of Islamic Finance at Fitch Bashar Al Natoor said.
Outstanding debt grew 10% y-o-y in 2023, on the back of an increase in both sukuk and bond listings, the ratings agency said.
The rise of USD listings are among the reasons for expansion: USD-denominated debt accounted for 71.4% of total debt, while AED-denominated issuances accounted for 20.5%, according to the report summary. Some 35% of USD-denominated issuances were sukuk issuances, the report added.
Fast facts: The UAE has the biggest USD debt capital market in the GCC, with some USD 81.98 bn of sukuk listed in Dubai, according to Nasdaq Dubai’s website. Nasdaq Dubai holds the lion’s share of listings with some 97%, it said.
Other key figures on the debt market last year:
- Sukuk issuances in all currencies accelerated by 115% y-o-y, accounting for 8.7% of all debt issuances;
- Bonds inched up at a slower pace, rising 23.6% y-o-y to USD 132.9 bn (AED 488.8 bn);
- Outstanding ESG debt rose 165% y-o-y to USD 17.1 bn (AED 62.81 bn), with 40.2% in sukuk.
The share of AED-denominated issuances and sukuk in the UAE’s debt mix is expected to rise next year, as a result of issuers looking to diversify funding, the implementation of the Central Bank of the UAE’s AED monetary framework, and strong investor demand, including from local banks with solid liquidity, the report said.
REMEMBER- The AED monetary framework is an initiative launched in 2017 to manage the Emirates’ money markets and the AED exchange rate, and maintain the peg to the USD.
Fitch rated Emirati sukuk issuers’ credit profiles as “predominantly stable, with 96.5% of the sukuk being investment grade and 92% on stable outlook, with the balance on positive outlook,” Al Natoor said.
ICYMI- S&P Global said that the Emirates issued 40% of total sustainable sukuk issuances worldwide in 2023, with AED 15.45 bn green and sustainable sukuk issuances in the first 11 months of the year. Meanwhile, the total value of sukuk issued over the first six months of 2023 in the UAE reached AED 28.7 bn. The government also switched from issuing T-bonds in 2022 to launching its maiden AED-denominated T-Sukuk in 2023.
There are some downside risks: Fitch warned that the debt market’s growth might face risks such as “rising rates and oil prices,” the ratings agency said. Sukuk could also be impacted by challenges in adopting Sharia standards, it said. Non-compliant sukuk with the AAOIFI shariah standards “could face lower demand and secondary market liquidity as UAE Islamic banks are constrained from investing in them,” the ratings agency said in November.
OTHER DEBT NEWS-
UAE lenders advise on RGE’s USD 1 bn (AED 3.6 bn) loan:First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) and Commercial Bank of Dubai (CBD) advised on a three-year USD 1 bn sustainability-linked loan (SLL) for Singapore-based industrial group Royal Golden Eagle (RGE) to help expand the group’s agri-businesses Asian Agri and Apical Group, according to a press release (pdf). The loan includes RGE’s maiden USD 150 mn (AED 550 mn) Sharia-compliant Murabaha facility, and will allow it to expand its operations in the Middle East, according to the statement.
The roles:CBD was a joint coordinator on the transaction, while FAB acted as the islamic advisor.
