Good morning, everyone, and a very Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating today. It’s a quick read this morning with the latest debt watch news from Agility along with a spot of M&A from the UAE’s Mubadala. The word of the day on the international trade front? Tension. First, a look at how the European gas market is shaping up…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- EU gas prices are on the rise: EU gas prices rose for a third consecutive day as Ukraine announced it will not be renewing a five-year deal – slated to expire at the end of the year – to pipe Russian gas to Europe. Gas prices surged by 3.4% on Monday, after jumping up some 7% last week. The volume of gas in EU storage sites has dropped at the quickest pace on record since 2021 — some 19% since the end of September — driven by colder conditions and a drop in seaborne imports.

Where do things stand? Russia noted that the situation was complex and deserved more attention, but stressed they were prepared to continue delivering gas to the West via Ukraine, during a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico cited by Reuters. Ukraine will not agree to Russian gas transiting through its borders, despite this being the most affordable option for central European nations, including Czech Republic, Austria and Italy.

Turk Stream is still operational: Russia’s state-owned energy firm Gazprom will continue to export gas to Europe through a natural gas pipeline, Turk Stream, running from Russia to Turkey on the floor of the Black Sea. Hungary will continue to accept deliveries of Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline.

The story grabbed a lot of ink in the int’l press: Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | Financial Times | The New York Times | Politico

ON THE SEAS AND IN THE SKIES- A Russian cargo ship sank south of Spain on Monday night after an explosion in the engine room. Two crew members are still missing, while the remaining 14 have been rescued. Russian authorities said the vessel, owned by the Russian Defense Ministry-linked shipping company Oboronlogistika, was en route to another Russian port carrying cranes for port infrastructure. Ukraine claimed the ship was heading to Syria to transport weapons and equipment amid Moscow’s reported military drawdown from the country. The story grabbed a lot of ink in the int’l press: Reuters | CNN | BBC | Financial Times | The Guardian

And a Swiss International Airlines flight made an emergency landing in Austria due to engine issues on Monday evening, after smoke filled the cabin and cockpit. The Airbus A220-300 aircraft was enroute to Zurich from Bucharest when the incident occurred, leaving 12 passengers in need of medical care and one crew member in intensive care. The airline is cooperating with the relevant authorities to investigate the incident, yet no further details have been disclosed. The story got coverage in Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and CNN.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Iraq plans to cut down on gas flaring and move ahead with an LNG import terminal project, as it aims to boost its natural gas supplies, according to a statement. The initiative is on track to have reduced gas flaring levels at the country’s oilfields by 67% this year. It aims to cut gas flaring levels by 80% by the end of next year and eliminate the process entirely by the end of 2027. Iraq is also looking to establish a fixed gas platform at Al Faw Grand Port and is inviting investors to invest in the development of the nation’s natural gas fields.

#2- Indian state refiners could be looking at our region’s crude oil market as they seek to replace Russia as their top supplier, three sources told Reuters. India’s three biggest state refiners — Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum — are down some eight to ten mn barrels of Russian crude for loading in January, the sources said. Companies could uptake more crude from suppliers in the Middle East under optional volumes in term contracts or through a spot tender for high-sulpur oil, two sources told the newswire.

Background: Refiners are concerned they will face continued problems in securing Russian oil in the coming months, as Russia’s internal demand is heightened and the nation is bound to stay under Opec+ production cuts. India’s oil secretary Pankaj Jain called for Opec+ to raise its oil output to meet the rising fuel demand in countries like India. India imports over 80% of its oil needs, and the country’s refiners will buy oil from suppliers that offer cheaper rates.

#3- Turkey is looking to launch negotiations with Syria to develop a maritime demarcation agreement after a permanent government is formed, Reuters reports, citing comments made by Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu at a press conference. The agreement would allow the two parties to determine authorities for the exploration of oil and hydrocarbons, Uraloglu added, as Turkey aims to boost its trade and energy ties with Syria.

#4- The Federation of Saudi Chambers is working to set up the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council in a bid to boost economic ties between the two countries, SPA reports. Trade between Kuwait and the Kingdom amounted to SAR 10 bn in 2023 (SAR 8 bn in Saudi exports and SAR 1.6 mn in Kuwaiti imports).

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices rose over 1% yesterday on the back of an improved short-term outlook for supplies as trading lulled ahead of the holidays, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures rose USD 0.95 to USD 73.58 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed USD 0.86 to USD 70.10 a barrel.

#2- Baltic index edges up: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose three points to 997 points yesterday. The capesize index rose 15 points to 1,147, while the panamax index tacked on eight points to 988. The smaller supramax index shed nine points to 923.

DATA POINT-

Alexandria Port saw a 28.1% y-o-y increase in overall cargo volume handling last month recording 6.2 mn tonnes, according to a statement. The port handled about 750k tonnes of general cargo marking a 52.1% y-o-y increase. Liquid bulk cargo saw a 41.8% increase y-o-y, dry bulk cargo increased by 38.4% y-o-y, and containerized cargo recorded a 7.8% increase y-o-y.

In terms of vessel traffic: The port’s overall vessel traffic increased by 4.8% y-o-y in November with 454 vessels using the port. Liquid bulk ships saw a significant increase of 46.1% y-o-y.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Switzerland will host the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting from Monday, 20 January to Friday, 24 December in Davos. The conference — under the theme Collaboration for the Intelligent Age — will gather global leaders to address geopolitical shocks and stimulate growth across five thematic priorities; rebuilding trust, reimagining growth, investing in people, safeguarding the planet, and industries in the intelligent age.

Belgium will host the World Cargo Summit from Monday, 27 January to Wednesday, 29 January in Ostend. The event will focus on air cargo economics, strategy, and market trends with a specific focus on how the industry will tackle disruptions and how firms can adapt their business models.

The UAE will host the ShipTek International Conference from Wednesday, 29 January to Thursday 30 January in Dubai. The two-day conference will gather industry experts, including managing director at Hapag-Lloyd Carolin Stumm, CEO Adani Ports Nicolai Friis, VP International Maritime Industries Justin Taylor, CEO Tristra Tim Coffin, and others to discuss new tech and developments in the maritime industry.

The UAE will host the Middle East Bunkering Convention from Monday, 3 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Dubai. The event will focus on the marine fuels sector to address the future of the industry in light of geopolitical issues, environmental regulation, and the future of artificial intelligence and digitalization.

Saudi Arabia will host the Airport Expansion Conference from Tuesday, 4 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Riyadh. The two-day conference will feature over 30 speakers to discuss challenges faced by Saudi Airports and highlight Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 with a clear focus on expansion, tech, and strategic partnerships.

The UAE will host the Middle East Breakbulk Conference from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. The event gathers giant manufacturers, EPCs, and service providers to discuss the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa. The two-day event features an artificial intelligence (AI) seminar, heavy lift workshop, chartering workshop, and a women in breakbulk panel.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.