Good morning, nice people. We have a busy start to the week with a raft of regional rail updates to work through, as well as whispers of M&A news developments and investments plans from Adnoc and DP World. Let’s dive right in.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is reportedly considering selling 3-5% of Adnoc Gas, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. While the size and timing of the transaction have yet to be agreed on, the sale could be announced in the coming days, the sources added. The stake may fetch some USD 3.5 bn based on the gas unit’s share price at Fridays’ close.

REMEMBER- Adnoc sold a 5.5% stake in its drilling unit in a secondary sale for USD 935 mn to institutional investors in May.

#2- Iraq’s Mosul International Airport is slated to reopen in 2025 with 86% of the project completed so far, Iraqi Transport Ministry spokesman Maytham Al Safi told INA on Saturday. The airport will handle receiving and transporting aircraft, Al Safi told the outlet.

Background: Iraq broke ground on the reconstruction of the airport back in 2022 — previously slated for completion by 2024 — after the airport was damaged back in 2017. Iraq previously awarded Turkish firms contracts to reconstruct Mosul Airport, with several agreements awarded to firms for the supply of equipment and systems.

Iraq’s been ramping up on airport developments: Iraq invited international private companies back in July to submit their bids to expand and operate Baghdad’s International Airport. Iraq’s Nasiriyah International Airport project is also expected to be finished within the next year. The ministry also had two plans, the first intended to boost airport infrastructure and maintenance at airports in Baghdad, Basra and Najaf, while the second sees Iraq collaborating with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to rehabilitate Baghdad Airport, undergo expansions, or build a new airport.

#3- DP World mulls investments in Cambodia: DP World CEO Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem expressed interest in investing in Cambodia’s transportation, logistics, and industrial park development during a call with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet yesterday, Cambodian newswire Khmer Times reported on Friday.

Building on Cambodia links: DP World acquired Laos-based port operator Savan Logistics back in May, which is situated on the east-west economic corridor that links Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. The port operator has also opened 51 new freight forwarding offices across Asia Pacific, expanding its end-to-end supply chain services in the region.

SPEAKING OF DP- Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation has chosen DP World-operated London Gateway port as its UK hub, exiting Felixstowe port in a bid to tape into more single operator routes and less port calls per services, according to a statement released last week. The change — set to take place from February 2025 — will most affect the Asia-Europe trades, while the Middle East-Europe (London Gateway) and Trans-Atlantic (Southampton) Gemini services will remain unchanged.

REFRESHER- What is the Gemini Cooperation? The Gemini Cooperation is an alliance by Hapag Lloyd and Maersk that aims to offer a flexible ocean network with schedule reliability above 90% for services under the Gemini umbrella, according to the statement. We first caught wind of this partnership back in January, but the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) held up the launch in July pending the divulgence of additional information needed to determine the venture’s competitive impact.

#4- Egypt reviews LNG needs: Egypt — which recently diverted cargoes carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments — is “updating production and consumption models according to actual figures” with the aim of “achieving the optimal and most efficient energy mix,” according to a statement released on Saturday. Egypt’s Energy Ministry denied reports circulated about issues at a floating LNG terminal at Ain Sokhna, indicating that the regasification unit is operating without any problems that would hinder meeting the market’s natural gas needs.

ICYMI- Egypt’s Oil Ministry is in talks with suppliers to postpone LNG shipments from 4Q 2024 to 1Q 2025, a government source told EnterpriseAM last week. The shipments are part of the 20 cargoes of LNG that the government bought for USD 907 mn to cover domestic needs between October and December

REFRESHER- Egypt has reduced its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via its gasification plant in Ain Sokhna port by a third to 500 mn cubic ft per day.

ON THE AVIATION SIDE- Big airport privatization news could be imminent: Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly is gearing up to announce “positive news” regarding the airport privatization plan developed with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Madbouly said during a meeting with IFC Africa head Sérgio Pimenta, according to statement.

Pimenta echoed Madbouly’s sentiments during the meeting, saying that important progress has been made in the ongoing consultations with the Egyptian government regarding the airports privatization plan, and that agreements have been reached on most fronts.

ON PORT SIDE- Egypt is planning to slash customs clearance times to two days by 2025 in a bid to improve the country’s investment and trade climate, Egyptian Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib said at a presser on Friday. The first phase of the plan will see custom clearance times reduced to four days, followed by the targeted two, which will help increase the country’s competitiveness in investors’ eyes and reduce logistical costs, according to El Khatib.

AND IN LEGISLATIVE UPDATES- The Egyptian Senate will vote on a handful of bills this week affecting the logistics sector. The senate passed a bill yesterday to tighten restrictions on those aiming to join the importers registry, stipulating that those aiming to join the register should have a capital of at least EGP 500k, and for limited liability companies to have a paid up capital of at least EGP 2 mn. The stated purpose of the bill is to protect local industries and stabilize prices in the local market.

Still up for a vote?

  • A bill to rebuild and expand the national maritime fleet as a means of boosting Egypt’s commercial maritime capacity.
  • A bill that would make it easier for vessels to acquire Egyptian nationality as part of efforts to promote the country as a hub for trade and logistics. Egyptian nationality will not be limited to individuals and official entities, but will also come through renting and leasing.

What next? Once approved, amendments will be referred to the House for a final discussion and vote.

#5- GulfNav’s Brooge takeover still in the works: Emirati maritime player GulfNav confirmed that its acquisition of oil storage outfit Brooge Petroleum and Gas Investment Company from Brooge Energy is “still in progress,” as the Securities and Commodities Authority is still reviewing the transaction, the company said in a disclosure (pdf). The company also said the drop in its share price to the minimum threshold temporarily during trading yesterday could not be attributed to any information or news that would justify the drop.

BACKGROUND- GulfNav received board approval in September for the AED 448.5 mn share swap transaction, which involves a capital increase equivalent to the shares issued to Brooge. The proposal, initially submitted to the SCA in October 2023, was updated earlier this year.

#6- Qatar Airways considers snapping up retired AA fleet: Qatar Airways is reportedly thinking about acquiring Airbus A330s formerly owned by American Airlines’ (AA) on the back of aircraft delivery delays, including Boeing’s latest postponement of 777X deliveries, Simple Flying reported last week. The US carrier boasts 15 A330-200s in its fleet, all of which were previously operated by US Airways.

Adding to its string of fleet expansions: Qatar Airways inked an agreement with Boeing in July to add 20 777-9 carriers to its order book, on top of its existing order of 40 Boeing 777-9s. The order also includes a commitment for 40 additional GE9X engines and spare engines from GE Aerospace. Qatar Airways returned its full fleet of Airbus A350 jets to service back in March after settling a dispute over damage to painted surfaces with planemaker Airbus.

#7- Talks between EU + China make headway towards an agreement over import tariffs on Chinese-built electric vehicles (EVs) entering the bloc, Reuters reported on Friday, citing comments made by EU Parliament trade committee chair Bernd Lange on German broadcast show n-tv. China could commit to supplying EVs to the EU at a minimum price, eliminating “the distortion of competition through unfair subsidies” which caused tariffs to be initially introduced, Lange said.

Background: The EU increased tariffs on Chinese-built EVs by up to 45.3% back in October, following the conclusion of its anti-subsidy probe. On top of the EU’s standard 10% car import duty, the bloc decided to impose extra tariffs ranging from 7.8% for Tesla to 35.3% for China’s SAIC.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices dipped in early morning trading as tensions continue to simmer between Western powers, Russia, and Iran spelling supply disruption concerns, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures lost USD 0.26 trading at USD 74.91 a barrel by GMT 04.40, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures shed USD 0.27 to USD 70.97 a barrel. “Oil prices are starting the new week with some slight cool-off as market participants await more cues from geopolitical developments and the Fed’s policy outlook to set the tone,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong told the newswire.

Is Opec+ set for a third consecutive online meeting? Opec+ may opt for an online meeting for its upcoming gathering on 1 December in Vienna as most delegates have not received in-person invitations yet, Bloomberg reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are doubtful that Opec+ will follow through with output increases this year, estimating that it could lead to prices dropping below USD 60 / bbl, a scenario that would strain Saudi Arabia’s finances.

AND- Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude prices staying at USD 70-85 per barrel this year, despite a supply deficit and geopolitical turmoil, Reuters reports, citing the bank’s note. Goldman maintained its 2025 Brent forecast at an average of USD 76 / bbl, potentially rising to the mid-USD 80s in 1H 2025 if Iranian oil supply drops amid stricter sanctions. For 2026, Goldman trimmed its forecast to USD 71 / bbl, anticipating a surplus of 0.9 mn barrels per day (bbl / d).

Sustained demand momentum: “While there is ample spare capacity in oil production, we expect refining to remain quite tight and gasoline and diesel margins to recover further,” the investment bank said, adding that long-term demand for oil remains strong due to rising energy demand, GDP growth, and ongoing challenges in decarbonization efforts across aviation and petrochemical sectors.

#2- Baltic index maintains downward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — dipped 2.5% to 1,537 points on Friday with decreases across all vessel segments. The capesize index fell 98 points to 2,626 points, while the panamax index shed 23 points to 1,083 points. The smaller supramax index lost 3 points to 948 points.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index decreased 1% to USD 3,413 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 67% below the previous pandemic peak, but remain 140% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,980 per 40ft container, which is USD 1,132 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,848.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Oman’s Sohar Port recorded a 21% y-o-y surge in container volumes handled, with general cargo volumes rising by 45% y-o-y in this year-to-date, CEO Emil Hochstedt told ONA on Saturday. Ship-to-ship handling at the port was boosted by 30% y-o-y and roll-on roll-off grew by 25% y-o-y.

Positive gains for the freezone: Phase one Sohar’s freezone saw leased land occupancy rate hit 85%,while phase two reached 55% in 2024. The zone racked in some USD 1.8 bn investments, and signed around 10 new leasing agreements which brought the freezone’s total investments to date up to USD 3.9 bn.

#2- The Tanger Med Port Authority (TMPA)’s revenues saw a 11% y-o-y boost netting MAD 3 bn (c. USD 290 mn) in 9M 2024, Morocco World News reported last week, citing the Tanger Med Port Authority. The firm attributed the growth to a surge in trade activity, with ports handling 103 mn tons of goods reflecting a 12.5% y-o-y increase during the same period.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Saudi Arabia will host the Wings of Change Middle East from Monday, 2 December to Tuesday, 3 December in Riyadh. The event will bring together aviation leaders, regulators, and experts in air transport.

Morocco will host the Rail Industry Summit from Tuesday, 10 December to Wednesday, 11 December in Casablanca. The two-day summit includes pre-scheduled business meetings with potential partners, conferences, and themed workshops on new market trends and future strategies presented by OEMs on infrastructure, rolling stock, embedded equipment and railway vehicle interiors.

The UAE will host the Middle East Business Aviation Show from Tuesday, 10 December to Thursday, 11 December in Dubai. The event will showcase innovations from over 135 exhibitors and will have over 25 jets on display, with over 55 speakers offering insight on market trends

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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