Good morning, folks. We have a brisk issue this morning with some key updates in the aviation and shipping industry, along with a smattering of trade news from across the region and beyond. Shall we?

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Hapag Lloyd and Maersk are providing alternative networks to their Gemini Cooperation if Red Sea disruptions continue, according to a statement. The two network options would see both shipping giants either returning to the Trans Suez Canal or continuing the alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope. The Gemini Cooperation plans to reveal next month which network it expects to put to sea in February 2025.

What is the Gemini Cooperation? Gemini Cooperation is a joint alliance by Hapag Lloyd and Maersk that aims to offer a flexible and interconnect ocean network with industry-leading schedule reliability above 90% for service under the Gemini umbrella of trades in its first phase, according to the statement. We first caught wind of this partnership back in January, but the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) held up the launch in July pending the divulgence of additional information needed to determine the venture’s competitive impact.

MSC is opting for a different route: Shipping giant MSC has decided to stand alone in facing volatile shipping markets, ruling out any new alliances, CEO Soren Toft told Bloomberg in an interview. The firm’s strategy to go solo comes on the back of its increased dominance in container trade after passing Maersk back in 2022. MSC has announced a new network plan that will allow companies to transit the Suez Canal or opt to go around the Cape of Good Hope if disruptions don’t ease.

#2- A Libya-Egypt-Chad road project is in the works: Eastern Libya’s Development and Reconstruction Fund (Emaar Libya) has inked an MoU with Egypt’s Arab Contractors Company for the construction of the Libyan section of the Egypt-Libya-Chad Transit Road project, according to a statement. The road — which covers 390 km — will extend from Libya’s Owainat, which borders Egypt, to the Chadian border. The agreement involves conducting feasibility studies and drafting a preliminary design of the road. No timeline has been disclosed for the project.

A significant trade boost: Emaar says the road project will link the Mediterranean coast with neighboring African countries serving as the first commercial transit route in Libya, helping to transport goods from Libyan ports to landlocked African countries in the south, Shorouk News reports, citing an Emaar statement.

#3- Boeing’s manufacturing delays persist: Boeing has pushed back a major production goal for its best-selling 737 Max planes by six months, Reuters reports, citing three industry sources with knowledge of the matter. Boeing’s updated master schedule for its 737 suppliers now aims for a monthly MAX production rate of 42 by March 2025, shifting from the earlier goal of September 2024, sources say. Boeing has maintained its official production target, which is set at 38 MAX jets per month by the end of 2024, an increase from about 25 jets per month in July.

Trickling down the supply chain: Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems temporarily reduced its monthly fuselage output for the 737 Max at 21 a month, down from 31. The move looks to cut demand from the firm’s supply chain to line up with Boeing’s production decreases, the newswire quoted a senior insider source as saying.

REMEMBER- The plane manufacturer cut down on its commercial aircraft production to address quality concerns after a panel flew off mid-flight on a 737 Max 9 Boeing jet back in January. It’s been a tough year for Boeing, as the firm has faced losses, production delays, and a lawsuit.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices rose in early morning trading as concerns over Hurricane Francine outweighed weak global demand worry, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased USD 0.34 to USD 69.53 a barrel by 04.30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose USD 0.35 to USD 66.10 a barrel. Both benchmarks shed almost USD 3 yesterday in trading, with Brent prices recording their lowest level since December 2021 and WTI falling to their lowest since May 2023.

Opec lowers global oil growth forecast, again: Opec lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 yesterday and trimmed expectations for 2025, marking its second consecutive downward revision, Reuters reports. The group said global oil demand will grow by 2.03 mn barrels per day (bpd), down from the 2.1 mn bpd rise it expected last month. It also trimmed its 2025 global demand growth from from 1.78 mn to 1.74 mn bpd. The downgrade comes on the heels of a fall in the forecast of Chinese growth to 650k bpd in 2024 from 700k bpd, as oil demand drops amid economic challenges and moves to cleaner fuels.

#2- Baltic index takes a turn: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.9% to 1,941 points on Tuesday. The capesize index fell 1.8% to 3,342 points on the back of lower iron ore prices, while the panamax index rose by 1.2% recording 1,317 points. The smaller supramax index lost one point settling in at 1,250 points.

DATA POINT-

The UAE’s crude oil production averaged 2.96 mn barrels per day in August, a slight increase of 4k barrels from July, according to secondary data published in Opec’s Monthly Oil Market report (pdf). Production averaged 2.9 mn bbl / d in 2Q 2024. Crude oil output rose in Nigeria, Congo, and Venezuela, while Libya, Iraq, while Saudi Arabia saw declines in production.

Opec cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 to 2 mn barrels per day, some 80k bbl / d less than its previous forecast. The oil cartel also sees demand growth slowing to 1.7 mn bbl / d next year, 40k bbl / d lower than its initial forecast.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Saudi Arabia will host SkyMove MENA on Tuesday, 10 September and Wednesday, 11 September in Riyadh. The event will gather global industry stakeholders, experts, and service providers to discuss challenges in the regional cargo industry.

The UAE will host the Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress from Monday, 16 September to Friday, 20 September in Dubai. The Congress is expected to welcome 20k participants to explore innovations in smart mobility and transportation technology.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Maritime and Logistics Congress on Wednesday, 18 September and Thursday, 19 September in Dammam. The event will gather international industry leaders in the maritime sector to discuss a range of topics including interconnected logistics, supply chains, digitalization, decarbonization and workforce development.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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