Good morning, folks. We have a compact issue this morning with updates across the regional logistics sector from aviation to warehousing to the beginning of our 3Q earnings report recap.

BUT FIRST- Please join us in extending our heartfelt sympathies to the Allam family on the passing of May Allam, beloved sister of our friends Hassan and Amr Allam, the CEOs of Hassan Allam Holding, and of Mariam. May (1991-2024) passed after a long and courageous battle with cancer. She was a remarkable woman whose grace, resilience, and courage touched all of those who knew her. May she rest in peace.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Egypt has plans for Fayoum’s industrial zones: Egypt’s Minister of Industry and Transport Kamel El Wazir has directed the Industrial and Mining Projects Authority to conduct feasibility studies to develop infrastructure at the North Fayoum Industrial Zones, according to a statement. Plans are said to include the addition of a cargo slipway or dry ports at high-speed rail stations situated near industrial zones to streamline the transportation of goods. Egypt’s Land Transport Regulatory Authority — in coordination with the Fayoum governorate and Ministry of Interior — has also been directed to develop regular transport lines to and from existing industrial zones in Fayoum.

IN OTHER EGYPT NEWS- Alexandria ports to see increase in freight rates: The Association of Local Car Owners and Transport Offices at Alexandria and Dekheila Ports is raising freight rates by 20% on the back of the hike in fuel prices by 8-17% last Friday, Al Mal reports. A number of land freight service providers also raised shipping rates by 20%.

Transportation and logistics platforms are also adjusting their fees, with Al Mal reporting that a number of sector companies are preparing to hike prices 7-10% across the board to preserve profit margins.

SAY IT AIN’T SO- Feerum Egypt hasn’t backed out of the grain silo factory: The Egyptian arm of the Polish grain silo manufacturer Feerum has not withdrawn its investment from its planned EGP 1.6 bn grain silo project with Egyptian construction and engineering firm Samcrete and the state-owned Egyptian Holding Company for Silos and Storage, Feerum board member Ahmed El Mofty told Al Borsa. He added that the company is set to hold a meeting with Supply Minister Sherif Farouk next Sunday to get final approval for its grain silo manufacturing plant in East Port Said.

The backstory: Earlier this week, Al Mal reported that Feerum would be pulling out of its grain silo project after the Supply Ministry canceled an order for a silo, reportedly hampering negotiations with local banks over financing. The company had been in talks with the Commercial International Bank, Banque Misr, the National Bank of Egypt, and First Abu Dhabi Bank to secure an EGP 1.8 bn loan to help fund the factory, which is set to cost EGP 2.3 bn.

#2- Sudan to resume export of South Sudanese oil: Sudan will resume exporting oil from its landlocked neighbor South Sudan, but no timeline has been revealed, Bloomberg reports, citing a government statement released earlier this week. The pipeline across Sudan previously transported over 150k barrels of crude oil to the Red Sea coast before halting operations back in February due to a blockage caused by gelling in the line.

#3- Newbuild vessel prices have risen 52% since 2020 on the back of strong order volumes, inflationary pressures at shipyards, and firm forward cover, Splash reports, citing a report by Clarksons Research’s Newbuilding Price Index. The average price of newbuilds has jumped to USD 90 mn per vessel, some 30% above the previous high in 2022. Prices have surged to highs not seen since their peak in 2008, with boosted container and LNG vessel order activity in 2021 and 2022 putting pressure on shipyard capacity and building. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio for tankers has risen by 180% as of September this year, with bulk carriers growing by 43% and gas carriers increasing by 29%. The expansion of green technology, a high value product mix, and a larger average size of ships on order have pushed up the market price of ships. The average size of ships on order this year is up 40% to 54k gt on the 10-year average.

#4- Airbus is set to outpace Boeing in terms of deliveries in the next 10 years, according to a recent Aviation Week Commercial Fleet and Maintenance Repair and Overhaul forecast report. Nearly 22k new commercial aircraft deliveries are slated to take place over the next 10 years, with deliveries of Airbus’s A320neo expected to overtake Boeing’s 737 Max. Airbus is forecasted to make up over 50% of the new deliveries at 11.2k new aircraft, whereas Boeing is expected to deliver some 40% at 8.8k.

The bigger picture: The two top aircraft manufacturers will maintain their dominance over the market, accounting for some 91% of all new aircraft deliveries between 2025 and 2034. MRO demand is expected to rise by 3.2% annually to hit USD 1.4 tn. The integration of increased use and longer-lived engines is forecasted to result in over 95k overhaul instances over the next 10 years, amounting to USD 557.6 bn in demand for engine shop visits.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices fell in early morning trading as demand slowed in China and calls for a ceasefire in the Middle East continue, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures for December fell USD 0.26 to USD 74.03 a barrel by 00.46 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for November slipped USD 0.02 to USD 70.54 a barrel. The more active WTI futures for December lost USD 0.23 to USD 69.81 per barrel. Both futures closed nearly 2% higher yesterday regaining some of last week’s losses as the market continues to brace itself for further fallout and escalated regional tensions as Israel weighs its retaliation against Iran.

#2- Baltic index continues its decline: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — dropped 1.9% to 1,546 points on Monday, registering at its lowest reading since early February. The capesize index lost 85 points to 2,191 points, while the panamax index fell a further 7 points to 1,278 points. The smaller supramax remained steady at 1,250 points.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the International Conference on Tourism, Transport, and Logistics on Saturday, 26 October and Sunday, 27 October in Dubai. The event will gather scientists, scholars, and engineers from around the world to discuss new ideas and research development projects in the industry.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Airport Exhibition on Monday, 11 November and Tuesday, 12 November in Riyadh. The two-day exhibition will bring together global industry leaders to discuss the latest technologies around the world in the aviation industry. It looks to encourage discussion between Saudi aviation leaders and the global supply chain industry.

The UAE will host the ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference on Monday, 11 November and Thursday, 14 November in Abu Dhabi. The event looks to explore ways to reduce emissions through innovative solutions. It will bring together industry leaders, regulators and decision makers in the global maritime and logistics sector.

Bahrain will host The Bahrain International Airshow on Wednesday, 13 November and Friday, 15 November near Awali. The three-day event is bringing together over 180 participating companies from over 59 represented nations globally.

Egypt will host the Autotech Exhibition on Sunday, 17 November until Tuesday, 19 November in Cairo. The event will bring together prominent local and international companies to discuss and evaluate the latest developments and trends in the automotive aftermarket and feeder industries.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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