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Achieving net zero is possible in the aviation industry by 2050, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) says in its updated policy and finance net zero roadmaps for the global aviation sector, according to reports (here) and (here). The updated roadmaps indicate that decarbonization by 2050 is possible through collaboration from stakeholders and policymakers as well as clear policy and financial frameworks in line with the needs of air transportation.
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But let’s back it up a bit: The IATA disclosed a series of “step-by-step” roadmaps back in July 2023 for the industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, with recommendations covering tech, energy, infrastructure, operations, finance, and policy. The shift toward sustainability in the air transportation industry is part of the Paris Agreement.
A call to action: “I must emphasize that the roadmaps are not just for airlines. Governments, suppliers, and financiers cannot be spectators in aviation’s decarbonization journey. They have skin in the game. The roadmaps are a call to action for all aviation’s stakeholders to deliver the tools needed to make this fundamental transformation of aviation a success with policies and products fit for a net-zero world,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said.
SOUND SMART- What is a policy roadmap? A policy roadmap is a strategic framework that outlines goals and recommendations for implementing specific policies in a specific area to complete strategies, according to a report (pdf). The roadmap provides a baseline for policy development and helps identify gaps in existing policies.
The roadmap: Although the recommendations recognize that there isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution for policy sequencing, they state that all countries should engage in the future global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market. The policy roadmap outlined immediate (until end 2025), mid-term (2026-2030), and long-term (2031-2050) objectives that lay out the order in which to target the goals and objectives.
Some takeaways: The roadmap highlighted the urgent need for immediate action to integrate the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) — a mechanism that aims to reduce emissions from international aviation above a standard reference level. The policies also stressed the importance of prioritizing SAF in the product mix at refineries. The introduction of new tech — especially in research and development — is deemed necessary.
Gov’t action is needed: Collaboration between governments, the aviation industry, and other sectors is important for streamlining investments and removing barriers to adopting new tech, SAF, and infrastructure. The report states that the creation of a global SAF accounting framework is necessary to ensure transparency and accountability.
How far along are we? Malaysian airline AirAsia inked an MoU with Airbus to explore the production and expand the use of SAF in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. The UAE’s renewables giant Masdar and French oil major TotalEnergies signed an agreement back in August to explore the feasibility of using captured CO2 to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and green methanol. The UAE has been looking to position itself as a regional hub for SAF with aims to produce 700 mn liters of SAF annually by 2030.
We’re on the way: SAF production in 2024 is set to hit 1.9 mn liters, representing 0.53% of the aviation sector’s fuel requirement and on track for tripling target. “SAF will provide about 65% of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. So the expected tripling of SAF production in 2024 from 2023 is encouraging. We still have a long way to go, but the direction of exponential increases is starting to come into focus,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said.
As for the money aspect: In order to be net zero by 2050, the annual capital expenditure (capex) needed to build new facilities over the 30-year period is about USD 128 bn per year. The road to this can be facilitated if governments redirect their subsidies away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy production, one of which is SAF.
Time is of the essence: The cost of procuring SAF, hydrogen, and other key levels is valued at USD 1.4 bn in 2025, but the transition could go as high as USD 744 bn in 2050 — indicating the need for speed and scale in bringing solutions to market in a bid to achieve the net zero CO2 emissions.
There’s hope: “To realize the opportunities, we need all minds to unite in this mission, and all policymakers, multilateral organizations, investors, solution providers, and the air transport industry to work together. Such transformative collaboration can pool resources and target meaningful action for greater impact. This is what is needed to deliver a sustainable air transport industry by 2050,” IATA’s Senior Vice President Marie Owens Thomsen said.
