Good morning, nice people. All eyes are still firmly affixed on the situation brewing in the skies and sea regionally, as the repercussions from Iran’s Saturday attack continue to reverberate through the logistics industry.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The US is looking to roll out a new round of sanctions on Iran in response to its retaliatory attack on Israel, Reuters reports, citing a copy of remarks attributed to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and picked up by Axios. “Treasury will not hesitate to work with our allies to use our sanctions authority to continue disrupting the Iranian regime’s malign and destabilizing activity,” Yellen would say on Tuesday, according to the prepared remarks seen by Axios.

Analysts believe that Biden is unlikely to sign off on further sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, as the administration looks to cap oil prices and avoid vexing China, a key importer of Iranian oil, the newswire writes, citing analysts. Hardline Republicans in the House of Representatives are vocally opposed to the administration’s moderated stance on Iran’s oil trade, and overwhelmingly passed a bill targeting Iran’s oil transactions with China on Monday, the newswire said. The bill is however unlikely to survive a vote in the Senate, which is controlled by Biden’s Democrat allies who are similarly cautious of policies that may result in a hike to oil prices, the newswire added.

The EU is also leaning towards more sanctions: The bloc is looking to propose new sanctions on Iran, due to its attack on Israel, at a gathering of its diplomats next week, Bloomberg reported yesterday. However, new measures would need all member states to sign off, which could prove to be a time consuming process. Moreover, further EU sanctions against Iran could have a limited effect due to the long list of sanctions that are already in place, the outlet said. The bloc is also not considering sanctions which target Iran’s oil lifeline.

#2- Egypt is the worst off financially due to the Red Sea crisis, as disruptions to Suez Canal traffic curb the country’s FX revenues, according to a World Bank report (pdf). Egypt reaped in some USD 8.8 bn in Suez Canal revenues last year, accounting for 25% of its net international reserves, the report said. If the crisis persists and a 40% decline in Suez Canal transits continues throughout 2024, the country will lose USD 3.5 bn in FX revenues, equivalent to about 10% of net international reserves and half of Egypt’s import bill.

ON A RELATED NOTE- UK-based ins. broker Howden will provide war risk cargo ins. to vessels traversing the Red Sea, the company told Reuters. The new product is the first dedicated ins. coverage protecting cargo vessels in the active conflict zone, which includes the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean, and has a twelve-month term, covering USD 50 mn per vessel, Howden told the newswire. “This cover was put in place to provide a competitive option for clients whose war cover had been canceled,” Howden associate director for cargo and commodities, Ellis Morley, said.

#3- Flooding, damage, and power outages were reported across the Emirates due to the heaviest rainfall the country has seen in 75 years, with a year’s worth of rain falling over the country in a single day. Several reports on X have also shown flooding and other instances of property damage from the torrential rain — including one viral video of patio furniture flying out of a building (watch, runtime: 0:05) and intense flooding and damage inside Mall of the Emirates and a conference in festival city. Plenty of photos and videos also showed severe road damage, including a road in Al Ain that collapsed due to the rain (watch, runtime: 0:44).

Dubai International Airport had to suspend operations for 25 minutes yesterday after flooding affected runways (see: another viral video). Over 50 flights were canceled yesterday, with all inbound travel diverted until weather conditions improve, according to France24. The National Meteorological Office issued a red alert and warned of “hazardous weather events of exceptional severity,” on X yesterday.

DISRUPTION WATCH-

Iran’s seizure of the MSC Aries and its retaliatory attack on Israel have increased the risk of disruptions to container shipping in the region, according to online container trading and leasing platform Container xChange. The latest dynamic may see the Strait of Hormuz emerge as a “focal point” for a new wave of disruptions, with particular risk to Dubai’s Jebel Ali port, an important regional transhipment hub. Disruptions at the choke point may also see a hike in war risk premiums and freight rates. The sealane is also vital to energy markets, and disruptions in that area may have negative implications for global oil markets, the platform also said.

And regional air traffic disruptions continue: A number of carriers have continued to suspend flights to Israel, with indications that the aerial routes to Israel may continue to see disruptions for months on the back of the flare up in tensions with Iran. A list of updates to airline suspensions, reroutes, and resumption plans can be found here. Flight tracking data continues to show numerous trips sidestepping regional airspace on journeys between Asia and Europe, CNBC said.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices dropped in early trade this morning in anticipation of an expected rise in US commercial stockpiles, Reuters reports. Brent futures for June dipped 0.62% to USD 89.46 a barrel while US crude for May declined 0.74% to USD 84.73 a barrel. “As the risk to supply is waning and a military response from Israel looks less likely as more time passes, prices are holding steady” Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon told the newswire.

Oil output from top US shale-producing regions is expected to boost 16k barrels per day (bpd) to 9.86 mn bpd in May — its highest since December, Reuters reported earlier this week, citing data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Output from shale-producing regions accounts for three-quarters of US oil production, and is expected to see increases on the back of improved well productivity and recovery from a deep freeze that stalled production earlier this year, the newswire said

#2- Baltic index holds steady: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index – which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments – was up by one point to 1,730 points on Monday, as gains in smaller segments counteracted declines in capesize rates, Reuters reports. The larger capesize segment dropped 23 points to 2,529 points. Meanwhile panamax was up 1.3% at 1,736 points, and supramax notched up 0.6% to 1,280 points, the newswire said.

#3- UAE’s Fujairah saw record marine bunker fuel sales in March, as Red Sea disruptions drove greater demand for refueling at the hub, Reuters reports, citing Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) data carried by S&P Global Commodity Insights. March bunker fuel sales at Fujairah reached 700.9 k cubic meters, and were up 25.2% y-o-y, marking a third consecutive month of yearly gains, the newswire said. In contrast, marine bunker fuel sales at Fujairah had declined on an annual basis in every month of 2023.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Middle East airlines saw a 20.9% y-o-y jump in air cargo demand in February, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), according to an IATA report (pdf). Middle East – Europe air cargo movements notched up 39.3% y-o-y during the same period, with Middle East – Asia routes growing at 21%, IATA said. Global industry-wide air cargo demand saw its third consecutive month of double digit growth, with CTKs boosting 11.9%. International CTKs grew 12.4%, with growth in the Middle East and Africa leading the trend. Meanwhile, global industry-wide air cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), bumped up 13.4%.

#2- Qatar’s e-commerce transactions in March were valued at QAR 3.66 bn, up from QAR 2.55 bn during the same period last year, Qatar Central Bank (QCB) said on X. 6.44 mn online transactions took place during the month, up from 4.9 mn last year, QCB said.

#3- Iraq’s customs authority raked in IQD 1.33 tn in revenues in 2023, up 28% y-o-y, INA reported yesterday, citing statements by the authority’s head Hassan Al Ugaili. The boost was attributed to the implementation of an electronic declaration system at six of its main ports, as well as administrative reforms, Al Ugaili said.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Egypt will host the Egypt Facility Management Forum on Tuesday, 23 April and Wednesday, 24 April in Cairo. Business-owners, developers, service providers, technology leaders and suppliers will attend seminars and exhibitions on the facility management supply chain.

The UAE will host Abu Dhabi Mobility Week from Wednesday, 24 April to Wednesday, 1 May in Abu Dhabi. The event, organized by The Department of Municipalities and Transport – Abu Dhabi (DMT), will feature announcements, forums, and introduce a mobility strategy for the emirate.

Iran will host the Iran-Africa International Summit from Wednesday, 24 April through to Friday, 26 April in Tehran. The event will see Iran receive trade ministers from more than 40 African countries.

Saudi Arabia will host a special World Economic Forum event from Sunday, 28 April through to Monday, 29 April in Riyadh. The event will focus on global collaboration and energy.

Qatar will host the Autonomous E-mobility Forum from Tuesday, 30 April to Thursday, 2 May in Doha. The event will gather industry experts, senior officials, policy and technology experts, as well as government, academic, and media representatives, providing a platform for stakeholders to exchange know-how and recommendations for the implementation of autonomous e-mobility in the real-world.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Smart Logistics exhibition and summit from Monday, 6 May to Thursday, 9 May in Riyadh. The trade fair brings together local and international suppliers, public officials, professionals, and logistics players, and provides a platform for networking, exchanging know-how, and showcasing new technologies, products, and services.

The UAE will host the Airport Show from Tuesday, 14 May through to Thursday, 16 May in Dubai. The 23rd Airport Show will see representation from airport suppliers, airport service providers, aviation executives, and regional decision makers. The event will highlight current innovations and new technologies, while emphasizing this year’s “Sustainability and Innovation,” theme.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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