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The Arctic is becoming increasingly navigable for ships as sea ice melts due to rising global temperatures opening new trade routes. The shift in shipping routes is accelerating the release of CO2 and black carbon (BC) from oil-based fuels used in ships using heavy fuel oils (HFOs), according to a statement released last week, prompting Canada, Norway, and the Clean Arctic Alliance (CAA) — an alliance of some 20 environmental groups — to push for the adoption of emission control areas (ECAs) in the region.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) approved two new ECAs in the Canadian Arctic waters and Norwegian Sealast week, during a Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) session held in London, CAA Lead Advisor Sian Prior told Enterprise Logistics. The two proposals will be sent to MEPC 82 for adoption, taking place between 30 September and 4 October, Prior added.
The move is set to ensure expanded protection from air emissions in Canadian Arctic waters and the Norwegian Sea, by limiting emissions of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides from international shipping. The ECAs have the “potential to drive broad positive change, especially if the shipping sector complies with the designation by switching to low-sulfur distillate fuels or other cleaner non-fossil fuels,” Prior told us.
Why focus on black carbon particles? “Black carbon constitutes 20% of the shipping sector’s global climate impact, and it is five times more potent a climate disruptor when emitted in the Arctic region,” Prior said. Black carbon particles, which are emitted into the environment via the exhaust fumes of ships burning HFOs, contribute to the accelerated warming of the Earth’s atmosphere, according to a CAA report. Arctic shipping has caused BC emissions to grow by 85% between 2015 and 2019 in the region and 8% globally over the past decade, according to data cited in the report.
IMO regulatory measures are falling short: The IMO has established guidelines for mitigation measures to reduce the risks of using and carrying for use of HFO in Arctic waters, according to a statement released earlier this week. The international body’s PPR11 regulation, which bans the use and carriage of HFO in Arctic waters, takes effect 1 July. However, “exemptions and waivers means that company’s can still circumvent the legislation until 1 July 2029,” Prior told us. She stresses that the “IMO continues to delay on taking short-term measures such as regulating the reduction of black carbon emissions and commencing discussions of a strengthened carbon intensity indicator to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
“We need to reduce the impact of black carbon in the Arctic by 2030,” Prior told us.At present, the IMO has no mandatory legislation regulating black carbon in the Arctic region, instead there is just guidance. “Ideally a black carbon regulation should apply throughout the whole Arctic,” which Prior notes is challenging at the moment given rising geopolitical tensions.
Arctic routes are poised to see a surge in traffic: Russia is looking to develop a year-round route that crosses the Arctic, with the North Sea Route (NSR) running from Murmansk near the Russian-Norwegian border to the Bering Strait near Alaska now accessible due to the melting of Arctic Sea ice. Russia welcomed global investment into the initiative during the 2023 Belt and Road Forum in Beijing last October, Reuters reported. “Starting [2024], navigation for ice-class cargo ships along the entire length of the Northern Sea Route will become year-round,” Vladimir Putin said.
Russia also boosted its forecast for NSR volumes 50% to 224 mn tons by 2030, with between 74 mn and 81 mn targeted for this year, Reuters reported last October, citing Russia’s Kommersant newspaper. This will be dependent on the integration of key energy projects along the route. Just the month prior Russian energy giant Gazprom delivered its first cargo of LNG to China via the Arctic Northern Sea Route, Reuters reported citing LSEG data.
What does this mean? Transit routes through the Northern sea have significantly changed since 2022 due to international sanctions on Russian crude oil, Prior told Enterprise. “Traffic instead of coming from Russia to the West, is going from Russia to the east,” said Prior, which is leading to longer transit times and the increased movement of shipping in a direction that hasn’t been experienced at this volume in the past, she said.
Regional players are also venturing in: UAE port operator DP World entered into a USD 10.3 mn joint venture with Russian nuclear agency Rosatom to develop container shipping through the Arctic last October, Reuters reported. DP World’s Russian unit will own 49% of the joint venture, with 51% held by Rosatom, the newswire said. The agreement seeks to complete the design of infrastructure facilities and calculate the volume of investments needed, and represents a big win for Putin’s drive to attract global investors in NSR, the newswire also said.
In part two of this explainer, we will look at how proposed regulations will impact the global shipping industry and the impact it might have on our region’s burgeoning alternative fuels industry.
