Good morning, nice people. We have a fairly meaty issue this morning with some updates from the land, seas, and skies but first, all eyes are turning to Abu Dhabi…

HAPPENING TODAY- The World Trade Organization’s Ministerial Conference is kicking off today in Abu Dhabi and running through to Thursday. The meeting takes place against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical tensions and global disruptions to trade amid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Key on ministers’ agenda: Reviving the WTO’s long-idle dispute system, which has been deadlocked for years due to the US’ blockage of judge appointments; scrapping subsidies that promote unsustainable fishing practices; making a decision on the extension of a moratorium that, if expired, would impose new customs duties on e-commerce transactions; and scrapping domestic agriculture subsidies in developing countries.

Today will see discussions on trade and sustainable development, including industrial policy and inclusion. You can find the full agenda here.

ON A RELATED NOTE-WTO delegates are reportedly frustrated by roadblocks to reform, labeling the agenda at the Abu Dhabi conference as a “non-meeting,” Reuters reported last week. Wars, geopolitical rivalries, and trade fragmentation are placing serious obstacles to the WTO’s freetrade agenda, with the body’s ability to remain impactful further hindered by a decision making process that requires full consensus, the newswire said. Negotiations that look to resurrect the WTO’s appeals court, dubbed the Appellate Body, inactive since 2019 due to US obstructions to the appointment of judges, are also unable to get off the ground due to broad divisions. “So, in that context, anything that just keeps the WTO going is probably considered a success,” Secretary General of the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce John Denton told the newswire in reference to the upcoming Abu Dhabi ministerial event.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1-The UAE and Australia will finalize a freetrade agreement (FTA) by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing comments made by Australian trade minister Don Farrell. FTA negotiations with the UAE are expected to be smoother than parallel talks with the EU and India where differences over agricultural imports are complicating talks. Farrell is in the UAE this week for the WTO Ministerial Conference, where he is expected to work with partners to reform the organization and reinstate an arbitration system that was derailed by the Trump Administration’s move to block the appointment of judges, Bloomberg added.

#2- OPEC+ is likely to extend production cuts into this year’s second quarter,as slowing growth in demand and ample US production put downward pressure on prices, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a survey of traders and analysts. The cartel is set to meet early next month to decide whether to extend 2 mn barrels per day production cuts beyond March. KSA energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman indicated to Bloomberg in December that production cuts may “absolutely” be extended. Despite downward pressure due to ramp ups in production in the Western Hemisphere, key OPEC+ states need to sustain oil prices above USD 90 a barrel, with Saudi Arabia requiring the added revenue to finance megaprojects, Bloomberg writes, and Russia demanding inflows to finance its war in Ukraine.

ON A RELATED NOTE- Scaling oil output in the Western Hemisphere has met the global increase in demand over the past decade, reversing a long running trend whereby Eastern Hemisphere production dominated the oil markets and crude flowed east-to-west, Reuters reported last week, citing Energy Institute figures. OPEC+ cuts helped cultivate the market conditions that allowed Western Hemispheric oil production to thrive, with Western oil output ramping up 27% to 31.6 mn barrels a day (bpd) between 2012 – 2022 and accounting for 34% of global output.

#3- Iran’s Makran Port, which is currently under construction, will see Iran’s container capacity boosted by 200 mn tons, Mehr reported on Saturday citing statements by Iran Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazrpash. Upgrades over the past year and a half have seen capacity at the country’s ports reach 300 mn tons, with some IRR 500 tn in private sector investments, along with government financing, funding the upgrades, the minister said.

#4- Qatar’s International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) is calling on private sector players to contribute to its new Commission on Customs and Trade Facilitation, after establishing a steering committee for the new body, according to a statement released last week. ICC Qatar is reaching out to legal consultants, customs brokers, chambers of commerce, logistics providers, and other private sector actors to participate in the committee, which looks to develop pro-business policy outlines and lobby with regulatory bodies and government authorities such as the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and the General Authority of Customs, the statement said.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Baltic index hits over one-month high: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments – was up 6.5% at 1866 points on Saturday, hitting its highest since 9 January, and up 16% w-o-w, Reuters reported on Saturday. Strong rates in the Capesize and Supramax segments buoyed the index, with capesize gaining 12.7% to 3145 points, while the smaller supramax segment bumped up 15 points to 1189 points. The panamax subindex fell 1.8% to 1595 points, falling 3% w-o-w, the newswire said.

#2- Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) has almost doubled y-o-y, despite weekly dip:Drewry’s WCI – which tracks global spot and contract freight rates – fell 2% to USD 3659 per 40ft container this week, but is 93% up y-o-y, Drewry reported on Saturday. The latest reading of the index is also 158% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 rates of USD 1420, while the composite YTD USD 3561 value is USD 869 higher than the USD 2692 10-year average, which was boosted by a spike in rates during the pandemic period. Rates are expected to remain steady over the coming week, Drewry said.

#3-Oil prices dipped almost 3% on Friday, and declined w-o-w, as a US policymaker indicated that Federal Reserve interest rate cuts should be put off by two months at the least, a move which would stifle growth and check demand for oil, Reuters reported on Friday. Brent declined 2.5% to USD 81.62 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2.7% to USD 76.49 a barrel, the newswire said. However, expectations of a tightening in the market and supply shortfalls could shore up the market in the coming few days, the newswire also said.

#4-Fujairah fuel inventories declined 11.3% to 8.31 mn barrels in the week ending 19 February, Reuters reported on Friday, citing Fujairah Oil Industry Zone data picked up by S&P Global Commodity Insights, with robust demand in Fujairah’s bunkering market depleting inventories, the newswire said citing trade sources.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Abu Dhabi Customs saw a 72% y-o-y boost in digital transactions at the emirate’s ports in 2023,Wam reported on Friday, citing the General Administration of Abu Dhabi Customs. The figures represent the highest rates seen since digitization efforts began. WAM did not disclose further details with regards to the monetary value of the digital transactions seen in 2023.

#2- Queen Alia International Airport (QAIA) handled some 6.4 k tons of cargo in January 2024, up 34.6% y-o-y, according to an Airport International Group (AIG) press release. QAIA also saw 5.8 k aircraft movements during the period, down 4.2% y-o-y, and 696.5k passengers, up 2.8% y-o-y, the statement said..

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Iran will host the17th Iran-Russia Joint Economic Committee meeting on Wednesday, 28 February in Tehran. The meeting will see experts from both countries engage in discussions on means to boost bilateral cooperation in trade, energy, banking, logistics, customs, and other fields, preparing the groundwork for a comprehensive MoU. The event will be co-chaired by Iran’s Oil Minister Javad Owji and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

The UAE will host the Gulf Aviation Networking Event (GANE) on Thursday, 29 Februaryin Dubai. The event brings together aviation industry leaders to network, gain insights on prevailing trends, learn about new technologies, and take part in panel discussions and presentations run by industry experts.

The UAE will host the Future-Proof Technology Event on Thursday, 29 February in Dubai.

The one-day event gathers industry leaders to discuss how emerging technologies, digitalization, and cross-sector collaboration, could be leveraged to bolster supply chains. The event will see presentations by a panel of experts and major logistics executives.

The UAE will host the TradeTech Forum on Tuesday, 27 February in Abu Dhabi. The forum will see some 180 trade leaders and experts discuss the technologically advanced trade environment and a showcase of trade tech solutions.

The UAE will host the Future-Proof Technologies Conference on Thursday, 29 FebruaryDubai. The event will unite industry experts to discuss strategies for adopting sustainable supply chain operations through cross-sector collaboration, advanced technologies, and integrated logistics.

The UAE will host the MRO Middle East on Tuesday, 5 March and Wednesday, 6 March in Dubai. The two-day event will bring together key decision makers from airlines, MROs, OEMs, lessors, and suppliers spanning all aspects of the airline supply chain.

The UAE will host The Logistics Middle East Award on Wednesday, 6 March in Dubai. The awards ceremony brings together industry experts to celebrate the sector’s biggest accomplishments over the previous 12 months.The deadline for submitting nominations is Friday, 19 January.

The UAE will host Abu Dhabi Mobility Week from Wednesday, 24 April to Wednesday, 1 May in Abu Dhabi. The event, organized by The Department of Municipalities and Transport – Abu Dhabi (DMT), will feature announcements, forums, and introduce a mobility strategy for the emirate.

Saudi Arabia will host a special World Economic Forum event from Sunday, 28 April through to Monday, 29 April in Riyadh. The event will focus on global collaboration and energy.

The UAE will host the 23rd edition of the Airport Show from Tuesday, 14 May through to Thursday, 16 May in Dubai. The 23rd Airport Show will see representation from airport suppliers, airport service providers, aviation executives, and regional decision makers. The event will highlight current innovations and new technologies, while emphasizing this year’s “Sustainability and Innovation,” theme.

The UAE will host The Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit from Monday, 20 May to Wednesday, 22 May in Abu Dhabi. The event will see industry leaders come together to discuss sustainable mobility and tapping into groundbreaking advancements in electric vehicles while engaging with key decision-makers.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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