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Disruptions along the Red Sea and Panama Canal global trade chokepoints are exerting pressure on global supply chains, hiking spot shipping rates and ins. costs, driving inflation, and weighing down macroeconomic outlook, according to a report (pdf) by Swiss ins. Group Swiss Re. Economic headwinds are set to get worse if the disruptions continue into peak shipping season in 2H 2024, the report said.
Spot shipping rates have doubled and quadrupled: Rerouted journeys around the Cape of Good Hope have added some 20 to 30 days and 11k to 15k km to round trips between Asia and Europe, delaying shipments and hiking shipping costs, according to the report. Spot shipping rates between Northeast Asia and Western Europe surged some 440% between October 2023 — before attacks on shipping started — and January 2024, the report said citing Drewry World Container Index (WCI) data. Further afield, drought in the Panama Canal has cut daily transit slots by a third to 24 and doubled spot rates for shipments between Asia and the US East Coast, the report said citing IMF Portwatch.
How have the disruptions affected the ins. market? Marine ins. has continued to cover Red Sea transits, but on a case-by-case basis and with higher rates to account for the upped risk, the report notes. Accumulation risks due to port congestions and greater exposure on the back of longer journeys are two factors that will affect ins. decision making. Despite exporters absorbing most of the disruption-driven delays and cost hikes so far, ins. losses may surge if disruptions continue and firms may also have to contend with stickier claims inflation if core goods inflation bumps up due to the disruptions.
Inflation is also looming: Disruptions to supply chains are putting pressure on goods prices, as high volume trade routes see turmoil, according to the report. Manufacturer PMIs in Europe and the US have started to reflect longer supplier delivery times and an uptick in input costs, with the automotive and retail sectors particularly affected. Food and energy prices are also susceptible to the disruptions. The longer the disruptions last, the more likely it is that goods inflation will trickle down to the rest of the economy, the report explained.
