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How MENA countries’ non-oil private sector performed in January: Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors in UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt painted a mixed picture in January. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia remained in expansion, albeit at softer paces, dipping due to supply chain risks, and increased costs, while Egypt remained in contraction amid inflationary pressures and import obstacles.
REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything over 50 denotes expansion and anything below indicates contraction.
The UAE’s non-oil private sector slowed in January with the index inching down to 56.6 in January compared to 57.4 in December, expanding at a slower pace amid softened output and new order growth, according to S&P Global’s PMI (pdf). Nevertheless the headline expansion showed robust expansion on the back of strong demand and business inflows that uplifted activity and operating conditions, increased sales and marketing, new and current projects, greater investment and government initiatives propelling the growth, according to the report.
Saud Arabia’s non-oil activity improved at their slowest rate in two years: KSA’s headline PMI dipped to 55.4 in January, down from 57.5 the previous month, according to Riyadh Bank Saudi Arabia’s PMI (pdf). Although the kingdom witnessed strong growth in business activity and new orders —- greater competition and increased cost pressures softened the expansion. There was also an uptick in inflationary pressures on the back of high demand, increased material prices, and supply chain risks leading to the sharpest incline in purchasing costs since mid-2012.
Firms purchasing was proactive in UAE + Saudi: The UAE noted a rise in new business on the back of strong demand, respondents said, which shot up new sales, and new customers. Input purchases also grew sharply as UAE firms tried to increase their stocks in anticipation of increased client demand. Increased new business levels in Saudi Arabia drove a rise in input demand, while purchasing activity and inventory holdings grew sharply. Like the UAE, strong demand was prevalent —- but business activity fell to a five-month low. The Kingdom witnessed increased levels of new business, fuelling increased input demand as purchasing activity and inventory holdings also increased —- albeit at an eight-month low.
Growing supply-chain risks are prevalent: Despite lead times shortening, the UAE experienced delivery delays as firms increased their shipping costs due to Red Sea disruptions, as well as hiked transport costs paved the way to increased purchase prices, causing material and salary expenses to be pushed up. Saudi felt input price inflation at its highest level since August 2020 due to greater supply chain risks, and increased staff costs. In a bid to counter this, selling prices in the Kingdom were raised but modestly and slowly as respondents were reluctant to pass on the costs to their customers, with Saudi construction firms even reducing their prices.
Egypt underperformed: Egypt’s non-oil private sector contracted as inflationary pressures continued to weigh down the headline figure, according to S&P Global’s Egypt PMI (pdf). Egypt’s PMI dropped slightly to 48.1 in January from 48.5 the previous month. Firms in Egypt’s output and new orders fell in January due to increased prices dampening client demand, with price pressures, and geopolitical conflict also weighing down growth. While firms’ purchasing activity decreased, its trend moved closer to stabilization, as firms indicated stock levels were kept stable, and lead times only increased slightly.
Inflation continues to be a thorn in Egypt’s side: Inflationary pressures picked up in January, respondents noted, with input and output costs increasing to their highest levels in 12 months, on the back of increased purchasing costs. Currency weakness and ongoing import problems also caused prices for wood, iron, and fuel to be ramped up, leading to firms to push a greater share of their costs onto customers and cause sharp increases in prices.
The Red Sea crisis was felt by all: Disruptions to the UAE’s supply lines had “modest impact,” on their non-oil sector growth in January, with few firms noting delivery delays, and rising backlogs, and increased shipping costs, S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Economist David Owen said in his comment to the report. KSA also recorded the sharpest rise in purchase prices since May 2012 — with firms noting strong demand, higher material prices, greater supply chain risks, and higher shipping costs amid the Red Sea crisis. While Egypt’s tourism took a hit from the Israel-Gaza conflict and geopolitical tensions — causing firms to be less upbeat for the future headwinds, Owen commented.
UAE’s outlook remains positive, although slipping from December: UAE firms remained optimistic for the non-oils sector’s growth over the coming year, as firms expect strong demand and sales pipeline to continue to drive expansion in output, with new projects and investment to help buoy growth.
While Saudi Arabia is not as upbeat, their construction firms are more so: Firms business expectations in the Kingdom dropped to the second-weakest in January, since mid-2020 citing slowed demand growth and inflationary pressures to pose limitations to firms’ business expansion in 2024. However, backlog of work in Saudi was registered for the first time in four years, particularly in the construction sector, reflecting strong demand for construction services, attributed to ongoing infrastructure and real estate development, reflecting a positive outlook for the construction sector to reap in investment, and sustain expansion, Riyadh Bank Chief Economist Naif Al-Ghaith commented.
Businesses in Egypt are also not upbeat: Firms are concerned that weak economic conditions will persist into 2024, with respondents’ expectations worsening to one of the lowest levels in its PMI series history. There was only mild optimism for future business activity recorded.
Looking for Qatar + Lebanon’s PMI? Catch them here later today and our coverage will continue tomorrow.
