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Land routes through Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as a potential lifeline for trade amid the crisis in the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported over the weekend. The commercial trade routes in the “heart of the Middle East” are designed to avert the Bab El Mandeb strait in the southern Red Sea, a choke point the Houthis have been exploiting.
What we know: Israeli software startup Trucknet Enterprise is among those testing the routes, sending goods from ports in the UAE and Bahrain through the Kingdom and Jordan towards Israel and Europe, its CEO Hanan Fridman told business information service. The route, which hasn’t been tapped before on a commercial level due to strained ties between Israel and Arab countries, saw Trucknet sending cargo from India, Thailand, South Korea and China in recent weeks. Asian-bound goods were also moving in the opposite direction, helping bring costs down.
Other options being weighed: German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd is considering linking Jebel Ali port in Dubai and two eastern ports here with Jeddah on the west coast. Another option by the German group seeks linking Jebel Ali with Jordan, which borders Israel.
But there’s a catch: An overland truck route will work for some types of cargo, but Hapag-Lloyd spokesman Nils Haupt admitted that it’s a short term-solution for shippers looking to ship small cargo — “not thousands of containers.” While it may “carry a not-insignificant quantity of traffic, [the land bridge] will remain a niche solution for shipments specifically to Israel,” Chris Rogers, head of the supply-chain research group at S&P Global, said.
And risks: “Gulf Cooperation Council states may be hesitant to promote the route as the Houthis have not yet threatened UAE or Saudi maritime assets,” according to S&P Global analysts. “A road route via Saudi Arabia and Jordan also would increase risks of cross-border attacks on cargo by Iran-aligned Iraq-based or Syria-based militants,” they added.
These routes could serve as a trial run for the planned US-backed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor in which Saudi Arabia is taking part. The crisis in Gaza has stalled talks on the corridor, which was announced during the G20 summit in India last year.
Attacks are seeing a redistribution of freight volumes across EMEA ports: The rerouting of shipments away from the Red Sea is seeing shipping from affected areas redistributed to ports in the UAE, and Africa, creating congestion in ports alongside reroutes, according to a Thursday report by international credit rating agency Fitch. Large operators including DP World and its diverse portfolio of terminals are less affected, as falling volumes in ports such as Sokhna (Egypt) and Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) are offset by higher volumes in Jebel Ali (UAE) and Africa.
Not all are so lucky: Single-terminal operators are more severely affected, Fitch said. Transhipment volumes in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are the worst off, with Mersin’s (Turkey) transhipment volumes particularly hard hit. The disruptions are not expected to continue long term, Fitch said, citing the importance of the Red Sea as an international trade route and the efforts of a US-led coalition to counter disruptions in the sea lane.
And Suez Canal receipts almost halved in January: Suez Canal receipts fell 47% y-o-y to USD 428 mn in January as the number of ships passing through the waterway dropped almost 37% to 1.4k last month thanks to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, Suez Canal Authority boss Osama Rabie told Kol Youm (watch, runtime: 9:28) on Friday.
The latest: French shipping giant CMA CGM has again suspended shipments through the Red Sea until further notice due to the heightened risk of attacks from Yemen’s Houthis, Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources it says have knowledge of the situation. The shipping firm returned to the Red Sea in January, after pausing transit in December.
Russian oil tankers transits via the Red Sea have continued “largely uninterrupted”, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing shipping executives, analysts, and flow data. Despite seeing a slight downtick in December, Russian tanker traffic in the Red Sea was up 20% compared to the same period last year, the newswire wrote citing tracking by oil analytics firm Vortexa, contrasting with transit patterns for other tanker fleets, which saw widespread reroutes over the past two weeks, the newswire said.
That’s not what we heard last week: Russian oil traders were reported to be diverting their shipments around the Cape of Good hope last week, due to the heightened risks of attacks, and looking for suitable locations to refuel and restock.
Shipping giant MSC stressed the need to circumvent a “significant supply chain crisis”, with concerns that rerouted shipping patterns could have a mounting impact on global trade, MSC Maritime policy and governmental affairs head Bud Darr told the US House of Representatives’ Transport and Infrastructure Committee at a hearing on Wednesday (watch, runtime: 2:04:55). During the hearing, which weighed policies on combating Red Sea disruptions, Darr noted that although initial Houthi attacks against commercial shipping targeted vessels with links to Israel, they have since become “indiscriminate”, forcing MSC to continue to reroute their vessels until they were more confident in their security.
Demand for China to Europe rail shipments via Russia has surged,as Red Sea disruptions continue to reshuffle trade routes, CNBC reported on Thursday. Freight forwarders are looking for options less expensive than air freight and faster than seaborne shipments rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, the news outlet said. Demand for the railway route has “skyrocketed” since the start of Red Sea disruptions and the overall impact on demand will take several months to unfold, RailGate Europe’s chief business development officer Julija Sciglaite told CNBC. Some companies are not showing interest in the option citing concerns about possible EU sanctions on trade mediated via Russia, the news outlet added. These companies are turning to the “middle corridor” sidestepping Russia by going through Kazakhstan to Turkey via the Caspian sea, the outlet reported, citing managing director of Rail Bridge Cargo Igor Tambaca.
STRIKES AND ATTACKS CONTINUE-
US forces carried out more strikes on Saturday targeting six Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles that were being prepped for launch, Reuters reported, citing US Central Command (Centcom). The latest attack comes on the heels of another strike last week targeting 10 unmanned drones that were being prepped for launch in Yemen, Reuters reported separately, citing a US official as saying. An American warship also downed three Iranian-made drones and an anti-ship ballistic missile in the Gulf of Aden, with no damages or injuries reported, the newswire said citing Centcom.
Yemen’s Houthis reportedly carried out an attack against American merchant ship KOI in the Gulf of Aden, Reuters reported last week, citing Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea as saying on Wednesday. The attack came hours after another strike targeting US Navy destroyer Gravely, the newswire said. British maritime security firm Ambrey also reported an explosion aboard a merchant vessel in the region, but did not clarify if this was the KOI, the newswire said citing the security firm. Liberian-flagged KOI is operated by UK-based Oceonix Services, which also operates oil tanker Marlin Luanda which was damaged in a Houthi attack on Saturday, the newswire added.
British and American forces struck 36 Houthi facilities in Yemen on Saturday, one day after the US launched air strikes against 85 targets in Iraq and Syria that it claimed have ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, killing 40, Reuters reported. “Our response began [on Friday]. It will continue at times and places of our choosing,” US President Joe Biden said in a statement. The attacks come in response to an Iran-backed attack that killed three US servicemen in Jordan last week.
IN DEFENSE NEWS–
India is doubling down on countering piracy in the region: The country has deployed some dozen warships east of the Red Sea as it looks to deter resurging piracy in the area, and as Western powers shift their focus towards dealing with the Houthi threat, Reuters reported last week, citing Indian officials. “Houthis and piracy are disconnected. But pirates are trying to use this opportunity as the West’s efforts are focused on the Red Sea,” the newswire cited an unnamed Indian navy official as saying. India already has two frontline warships in the Gulf of Aden, and some 10 warships in the northern and western Arabian Sea, with surveillance aircraft, marking the country’s largest deployment to the region, and larger than Chinese, French or US deployments to the area, officials said. India is also not participating in the US-led Red Sea naval taskforce, the newswire also added.
REMEMBER-Monday saw Indian navy vessel INS Sumitra respond to two Iranian fishing vessels that were hijacked by Somali pirates, rescuing 17 Iranian nationals from the first boat, before rescuing 19 Pakistani nationals aboard the second.
MARKET REAX-
The oil market is looking more disconnected and fragmented as it turns to local alternatives amid disruption-driven increases in freight rates, Bloomberg reports. The trend is seeing the development of two disconnected oil trading regions — one centered around the Atlantic, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean and another enclosing East Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. European refiners didn’t pick up Iraqi crude last month, with shipments from the North Sea and Guyana seeing an uptick in demand in the European market, Bloomberg wrote citing traders. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude is seeing greater demand in Asia and crude loadings from the US to Asia declined by more than a third between December and January, the outlet said citing Kpler tracking data. “The pivot toward logistically easier cargoes makes commercial sense, and that will be the case for as long as the Red Sea disruptions keep freight rates elevated,” Kpler analyst Viktor Katona was cited as saying by the outlet.
The LNG market may take it a step further: US and Qatar-based LNG producers are considering swapping their cargoes to get around bottlenecks at the Suez and Panama Canals, with US cargoes making their way to Europe to meet Qatari contracts and Qatari cargoes shipped in turn to US customers in Asia.
