Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and happy almost-THURSDAY. It’s a mixed bag as far as the news cycle goes, with the big story of the day being Aramco’s return to international debt markets for the first time in three years.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Global EV and Mobility Technology Forum gets underway this morning at Riyadh’s International Convention and Exhibition Center. The two-day event will bring together top government officials, bankers, and automaker executives, led by Faisal Sultan, managing director and vice president of PIF-backed EV maker Lucid. Discussions will focus on the key areas of building out a local automotive supply chain, boosting EV adoption in the Kingdom, the challenges facing E-mobility here at home, and the role of public-private sector partnerships in solving them.

WEATHER- Riyadh will see a daytime high of 45°C today and a nighttime low of 32°C. In Makkah, the mercury will peak at 44°C during the day and drops to 32°C. Meanwhile, Madinah is looking at a high 44°C and a low of 31°C.

PSAs-

#1- Businesses in the health and commercial sectors in Riyadh will now be governed by a new inspection and oversight program introduced by the Riyadh Municipality, Argaam reports. The Muthol municipal compliance program is designed to improve compliance and oversight on businesses while easing their financial burdens by shifting away from relying primarily on fines for regulatory non-compliance. The program instead focuses on providing incentives for compliance, according to Asharq Al Awsat.

#2- Industrial and mining companies in the Kingdom will have easier access to research centers and labs through a new program from the Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry and the Research, Development, and Innovation Authority, the two bodies said on X (here and here). The program includes 30 scientific research centers in universities, medical institutions, and laboratories. It targets investors and entrepreneurs in the industrial and mining sectors. Companies can register here.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

The Saudi Islamic banking market’s operating environment is expected to be “favorable” over 2H 2024 and 2025, but could be held back by persisting issues including “low standardization, still-developing Islamic-finance regulations, and fragmented disclosures,” Fitch Ratings said in a non-action commentary. Sama has been taking strides to alleviate some of these, issuing additional capital adequacy requirements and releasing a risk-management framework for sharia-compliant banking, the ratings agency said.

DATA POINT-

Saudi is now ranked 36 globally in the Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (Dhaman)’s investment climate index, slipping two spots from last year’s index, Mubasher reports, citing Dhaman’s report. The Kingdom is the third-highest ranking Arab country in the index.

In terms of the regulatory environment, the Kingdom jumped 13 spots to rank 71 in the index. Meanwhile, it fell one rank to 55 in terms of production, and climbed two ranks in the political climate and safety category.

The wider view: Inter-Arab investment grew 37% in value to USD 66.3 bn in 2023 across a total of 305 projects (up 20% y-o-y), Mubasher said, citing the report. Saudi Arabia was the top investment destination in the region with 110 projects, representing over 36% of the total while Mauritania came in first place in terms of investment costs, with a value of USD 34 bn and a share of 53%.

OIL WATCH-

The Kingdom is set to regain its global oil market share as it ramps up China-bound crude deliveries next month following a steep drop in June, Reuters reported, citing trade sources. Traders expect Saudi’s crude oil supply to China to rise to at least 44 mn barrels in August, up from 36 mn barrels in July. The move would end a four-month scale back on oil exports to China, with news of the additional shipments coming days after Aramco slashed prices for crude grades it sells to Asia for a second month.

Background: The Kingdom’s overseas crude shipments hit a 10-month low in June at 168 mn barrels — about 5.6 mn barrels a day — as summertime demand for energy peaks. Shipments of Saudi crude to China hit its lowest since March 2020 with 1.12 mn barrels a day, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

ALSO- Saudi was the US’ third-largest oil exporter in May 2024, shipping 11.7 mn barrels worth USD 1 bn, Mubasher reported, citing US government data. The exports are up 6.9% y-o-y from 10.9 mn barrels in the corresponding month last year. The top crude oil exporting nations to the US during May were led by Canada followed by Mexico.

MORNING MUST READ-

Is the internal combustion engine (ICE) here to stay? That’s what Aramco and other car market leaders think. The oil giant, China’s Geely, and France’s Renault — all of whom are shareholders in powertrain producer Horse Powertrain — believe that ICE engines will remain vital well beyond 2050 due to cost and other factors, predicting automakers will eventually pass the manufacturing torch to third-party suppliers, the Financial Times reports. “It will be incredibly expensive for the world to completely stamp out, or do without internal combustion engines,” Aramco Executive VP Yasser Mufti told the salmon-colored paper. Horse CEO Matias Giannini expects that by 2040, up to 60% of vehicles will still use some form of ICE, whether pure, hybrid, or plug-in hybrid.

IN CONTEXT- Oil giant Aramco signed agreements to acquire a 10% stake in Horse Powertrain, a joint venture between Renault and Geely, valuing Horse at EUR 7.4 bn. Renault and Geely each hold a 45% stake. Initially, Aramco sought a 20% stake under a preliminary agreement with Renault and Geely last year.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The Nato summit kicked off in Washington yesterday against the backdrop of Joe Biden’s teetering reelection campaign and developments in the Russia-Ukraine war — landing on most front pages with news of another support package for Ukraine, this time in the form of an air defense system. (Washington Post | Reuters | FT)

Biden’s speech at the summit stood in stark contrast with his performance at the presidential debate, with Reuters noting his “strong and confident voice” as he read off a teleprompter and looked to avoid signs of weakness.

Still, his future candidacy remains in limbo, with another key democrat — Mikie Sherrill — joining the growing call among Democratic lawmakers for him to drop out, while some others have pledged support, the Financial Times said.

ALSO HAPPENING YESTERDAY- US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kicked off his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee with a tee-up for an interest rate cut that could take place as soon as September, Reuters reports.

“Leaving monetary policy too tight for too long could unduly weaken economic activity and employment,” Powell said, adding that the US economy is no longer overheated, as inflation and the labor market both continue to cool.

OVER IN EUROPE- It’s a bad week for France on all fronts, as it faces a political stalemate and is kicked out of the Euros by a defiant Spain — led by 16-year-old wunderkind Lamine Yamal — in yesterday’s semi-final.

PLUS- Europe just launched its first rocket in almost 30 years, virtually “power[ing] Europe back into space,” European Space Agency Josef Aschbacher head said, after years of dominance from Elon Musk’s SpaceX. (FT | CNBC)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The eight-week Esports World Cup runs until Sunday, 25 August Riyadh’s Boulevard City. It will see the world’s best esports clubs competing for a pool of USD 60 mn — the largest purse in esports.

The 16 teams who passed the group stage of the ESports World Cup’s Riyadh Masters will face off from today through to next Sunday, 14 July. Only four will make it to the playoffs upper bracket and two will make it to the lower bracket.

Aramco is set to release its 1H 2024 results on Tuesday, 6 August, according to its website. You can tune into the earnings audio webcast here. Aramco posted a 14.4% y-o-y net income decrease in 1Q 2024 to SAR102.3 bn (USD 27.3 bn), and its revenues dipped 3.7% y-o-y to SAR 402.0 bn (USD 107.2 bn).

This year’s edition of security-focused expo Intersec Saudi Arabia will run from Tuesday, 1 October to Thursday, 3 October at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

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