Good morning, friends. Saudi dominates global business headlines this morning with word that Aramco’s blockbuster share sale was fully covered just hours after the order window opened yesterday — and news that Opec+ will start phasing out voluntary production cuts this fall.

PLUS- We have the rundown on three new reports for you this morning, one each real estate, education, and the obstacles execs say are blocking business transformation. All of that and more in this morning’s news well, below.

OIL WATCH-

Opec+ could start pumping more oil this fall: OPEC+ decided to extend crude oil production cuts during its meeting in Riyadh yesterday, it said in a statement. The alliance will keep in place current production cuts of 3.66 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) until the end of this September, before beginning to “phase out the cuts of 2.2 mn bbl / d over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025,” Reuters reports.

The bottom line: “We are waiting for interest rates to come down and a better trajectory when it comes to economic growth … not pockets of growth here and there,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said.

This is aligned with what pundits had penciled in: Reuters and the New York Times were among those expecting some or all of the cuts to be extended.

The next checkpoint: The group is scheduled to meet again on Sunday, 1 December 2024.

BACKGROUND- Brent crude prices have been falling “amid a fragile economic outlook in top consumer China and doubts about the pace of interest-rate reductions in major industrialized economies,” Bloomberg writes. Brent crude has fallen some 11% since early April, to trade at USD 81.11 a barrel.

IN CONTEXT- Opec+ has largely stuck to a total of 5.9 mn bbl / d worth of cuts, Reuters notes, in a bid to prop up prices against a backdrop of waning demand from China and higher US shale production .

HAPPENING TODAY-

The two-day Global Project Management Forum 2024 wraps today at the Fairmont Riyadh. Today’s lineup includes discussions fo project performance, emotionally intelligent leaders, and data-driven decision making, to name a few.

WEATHER- Expect it to be much of the same in Makkah today, with more wind and a daytime high of 45°C that will give way to a low of 31°C. Riyadh is also in for a windy day with a high of 44°C and a low of 29°C, while Jeddah is getting a cooler high of 38°C and low of 28°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- PIF-owned Riyadh Air is looking to expand its partnership network and is set to close an agreement in the coming days with a major southeast Asian carrier, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the plan. Riyadh Air is also working towards securing agreements with an Indian long-haul flight carrier as well as a US airline, according to Bloomberg, which stopped short of naming the carriers Riyadh Air is speaking with.

#2- The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry earmarked two sand and gravel ore complexes in Asir’s Bisha for mining activities, according to state news agency SPA. One complex is located east of the Gulf, while the other lies north of Al Shaqiqa, it said.

BACKGROUND- The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry announced plans earlier this year for an incentive program to encourage exploration. It has gold and phosphate in mind, among others. The nation’s untapped mineral resources could be worth as much as USD 2.5 tn, or 90% more than the last forecast in 2016, officials said in January.

#3- Al Safi Danone was fined SAR 1.3 mn for environmental damage in Al Kharj, the National Center for Environmental Compliance said on X. Al Safi Danone reportedly engaged in activity that led to soil pollution, impairing its usability, or ruined its natural properties without taking appropriate precautions, the center said. The dairy and juice producer will also be required to repair the damage it caused.

DATA POINT-

The real estate loan portfolios of commercial banks grew 13.4% y-o-y in 1Q 2024 to SAR 800.5 bn, according to SAMA’s April 2024 Monthly Statistical Bulletin (pdf). The volume of real estate loans to individuals — which account for 78.1% of total real estate loans granted — reached a record high of SAR 625.2 bn by the end of the quarter, rising 10.3% y-o-y, while loans were issued to corporate clients rose 26% y-o-y to reach SAR 175.2 bn.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s an unusually busy Monday morning, with a handful of stories fighting for a spot on the front pages.

IPO WATCH- Fast-fashion retailer Shein will soon file a prospectus with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority ahead of its anticipated London IPO, which could value the company at over USD 64 bn. This is Shein’s second attempt at going public after it tried to make its debut in New York but faced regulatory hurdles due to its ties to Beijing. (FT | Reuters)

ELECTION SEASON is in full swing: Mexico could welcome its first female president. Mexicans headed to the polls yesterday to cast their ballots in a historic presidential race, with two female candidates in the lead — leftist former head of government of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum and conservative Xochitl Gálvez. Results should be announced shortly. (Reuters | CNN | AP)

ALSO- South Africa’s African National Congress is scrambling to conclude coalition talks and has a few “very difficult” days ahead, one political analyst told Sky News. As we noted yesterday, the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the fall of white rule. President Cyril Ramaphosa called yesterday for unity and said he would not step down despite the loss at the polls, Politico reports.

AND- The US presidential elections are fast approaching and a Reuters poll breaks down where each of the leading candidates — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — stand among voters in comparison to this time four years ago, when they went head- to-head for the first time.

All this election talk got you overwhelmed? We have everything you need to know about the upcoming elections this year in an Enterprise Explains published late last year.

IN LOGISTICS- The economic fallout of ships diverting away from the Red Sea to avoid Houthi attacks is still receiving coverage, with Bloomberg’s daily supply chains newsletter — Supply Lines — dedicating yesterday’s issue to the topic.

PSAs-

#1- It’s time to steer clear of Makkah if you’re not a resident or don’t have a Hajj permit. Rules barring non-resident expats and citizens from Makkah and designated areas around the city came into effect yesterday, state news agency SPA said in a reminder. The rules — which were announced last month — will impose a SAR 10k fine and could lead to expats being deported and banned from entering the Kingdom. The rules will remain in effect until Thursday, 20 June.

#2- Importing goods for an expo? You can now get zero-duty imports with ATA carnets: The Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority (Zatca) is now accepting temporary admission carnets (ATA carnet), Zatca said in a statement. ATA carnets simplify customs procedures for the temporary import of goods for purposes including trade shows, exhibitions and events and ensure zero duty and tax treatment. Anything brought into the Kingdom under an ATA carnet needs to leave Saudi within one year.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The #Growth Summit is set to kick off this Wednesday, 5 June, bringing together marketing, product and growth experts at the InterContinental in Riyadh. You can request your invite here.

The Global EV and Mobility Tech Forum will open its doors on Wednesday, 10 July to Thursday, 11 July at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center. The event will bring together policymakers, NGOs, and startups.

The Conference on Arbitration and Dispute Resolution in Energy, Oil, and Gas will be held in GCC countries for the first time in 2025, coming off the signing of a partnership between the GCC Commercial Arbitration Center, the Scottish Arbitration Center, and the International Conference on Law, according to state news agency SPA. The conference will bring together experts in international arbitration to discuss the legal, geopolitical, economic, and security aspects and challenges related to energy disputes in the GCC.

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