Good morning, friends. It’s a slow start to what promises to be an exceptionally busy news week at home and abroad, with many of the week’s big stories having a whiff of geopolitics to them.

Driving the news for the foreseeable future:

#1- Are we looking at an Iran-Israel war? Saudi, G7, Egyptian, and G20 leaders are all pushing Tel Aviv and Tehran to cool off lest they tip things over into a wider regional conflagration. It’s the singular priority in policymaking circles this morning, as underscored by the banner headline in the Wall Street Journal: Biden wanted to avoid a regional war. Now he’s got one.

The key message to Israel, per Politico: Don’t do something you’ll regret. Saudi has expressed “deep concern” about the attack and is calling on both sides to exercise restraint. (More than that in this morning’s Diplomacy section, below.)

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could be key to how this all plays out, Reuters notes, given our unique positions as intermediaries between Iran, Israel, and the United States.

#2- How will markets react? Traders around the world are taking Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel — unprecedented though it may have been — with a grain of salt:

  • US stock futures ticked up overnight and European futures inched down ever so slightly;
  • Major Asian benchmarks have recouped some of their losses in early trading this morning after sagging a modest 1.3-1.5% at the opening bell;
  • Gold and oil prices — both on an upward march of late — pulled back slightly yesterday;
  • The USD is holding steady.

#3- The wildcard: How will Netanyahu react? And on what time scale? International leaders will have plenty of forums in which to express “deep concern” this week, with G7 foreign ministers and EU heads of state both set to meet on Wednesday and G20 finance ministers meeting on Thursday.

Also “top of mind” as we keep shrugging off the post-Eid blues:

#4- The IMF and World Bank annual meetings get fully underway later today in Washington, DC. The IMF will release its World Economic Outlook and part of its Global Financial Stability report tomorrow and its fiscal monitor on Wednesday.

Finance Minister Mohamed Al Jaadan will lead the Saudi delegation to the meetings, a Finance Ministry statement said. Al Jadaan lead a meeting of the IMF’s top policy advisory body, the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), his first since he was named chair of the committee for a three-year term. The delegation also includes Sama Governor Ayman Al Sayari, Saudi Fund for Development CEO Sultan Al Marshad and other officials.

#5- It’s earnings season once again. Saudi companies have until 19 May to release 1Q figures and the trickle will turn into a flood this week in the West, with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BNY Mellon all set to release between today and tomorrow.

Not enough news in the pipeline for you? The halving of BTC should take place sometime around Saturday, Donald Trump’s criminal hush-money trial gets underway today in New York City, and India kicks off its 44-day parliamentary election process on Friday.

GET READY FOR THE WEF IN RIYADH

MEANWHILE- There are less than two weeks to go until Riyadh is host to a special meeting of the World Economic Forum. The headline: “Global collaboration, growth and energy for development.”

A who’s who will be in town for the gathering: Everyone from IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva (who just got a second term in office) to General Atlantic chief William Ford, and (sigh) the NYT’s Thomas Friedman (maybe his Uber driver will get a name check in a column?).

On the agenda: Everything from AI and the energy transition to forest fires, digital healthcare, and “the Middle East under stress.”

Sound smart: Aramco CEO Amin Nasser and Lubna Olayan are among the co-chairs of the gathering and have helped set the agenda.

OIL WATCH-

Growth in oil use will slow this year, the International Energy Agency says, in stark contrast with Opec, which as we noted yesterday is predicting “robust oil demand” during the summer, leaving its 2024 forecast unchanged in its latest monthly report. The Opec nemesis says “demand will increase by 1.2mn barrels per day this year, a 130k b/d reduction on its previous monthly forecast” thanks to stabilizing demand in China and a mild winter.

The risk to both forecasts: Brent crude is at about USD 90 / barrel right now — and could go to USD 100 or above if Israel and Iran don’t cool off, CNBC writes.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Economic cooperation is on the agenda as Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan lands in Pakistan today, a statement on X by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry read. The two-day visit by the FM comes nearly a week after Pakistan’s prime minister discussed a USD 5 bn investment package during a meeting in Makkah with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Farhan is leading a large delegation, with reports suggesting he is being joined by officials from the water and agriculture, energy, investment, and industry and mineral resources ministries.

REMEMBER- Saudi has been among key backers of crisis-hit Pakistan, which is now struggling with depleted reserves. The Kingdom has extended the term of a USD 3 bn in deposit at the State Bank of Pakistan for an additional year, maturing in December this year. Pakistan also received last year USD 2 bn in financial assistance from the Kingdom to shore up finances.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Homegrown fintech Funding Souq has gotten the green light from the Saudi Central Bank (Sama) to provide crowdfunded debt solutions to SMEs, it said in a press release. “We are pleased to announce that we have officially obtained our license from the Saudi central Bank,” CEO and founder Martin Jaouni said last week. The Riyadh-based fintech, founded in 2020, offers financing and investment services to SMEs by connecting them to retail and institutional investors.

PSAs-

#1- WEATHER WARNING- The General Directorate of Civil Defense has urged the public to stay cautious and avoid flash flood-prone areas until Wednesday, it said in a post on X, yesterday.

Intermittent thunderstorms are in the cards through Wednesday for the Riyadh, Eastern Province, and Al-Qassim.

#2- Umrah visas will be valid for three months at most starting from the date of issuance and expiring on 15 Zu Al-Qa’dah of every Islamic calendar year, instead of the previous expiration date of 29 Zu Al-Qa’dah, per a post on X by the Ministry of Hajj and Umra. The Ministry advised pilgrims in a separate post to leave the Kingdom before their visas expire

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Gulf Film Festival (GFF) runs through Thursday, 18 April in Riyadh. Organized by the Film Commission in cooperation with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) General Secretariat, the five-day event will showcase a selection of 29 films from across the region. It will also include three training workshops and six educational seminars focused on fostering artistic dialogue and raising awareness of cinema’s social impact.

Riyadh will host a special meeting of the World Economic Forum on 28-29 April.

Automechanika Riyadh will open on Tuesday, 30 April till Thursday, 2 May at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center. The annual trade fair will showcase the automotive industry’s latest advances and innovations.

The King Salman bin Abdulaziz Royal Reserve Festival will kick off today at the Cultural Center in Al-Qurayyat governorate, state news agency SPA reports. The art and culture event runs until Thursday, 18 April.

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