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SIGN OF THE TIMES? Shares of OQ Base Industries fell 3.6% in Oman yesterday, becoming the third regional IPO in a row to disappoint in their trading debut. Talabat’s USD 2 bn IPO saw its shares on the Dubai Financial Market dip 7% on opening day, while shares of retailer Lulu closed flat in their first day on the ADX.

Background: State-owned OQ sold a 49% stake in methanol producer OQ Base Industries in a transaction worth USD 489 mn before the start of trading, pricing the offering at the top of the range.

Advisors: Morgan Stanley, Bank Dhofar and Bank Muscat quarterbacked the offering.

PLUS- It’s interest rate week in the United States, with the Federal Reserve set to hold its final meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bank of England the Bank of Japan will follow suit on Thursday.

Expect the Fed to sound a note of caution. The expectation since Donald Trump cruised to victory last month is now for fewer rate cuts over a longer period of time. A quarter-point cut this week seems fairly likely (though less so than before US voters returned The Donald to office), but the swaps market is pricing in just 0.75 bps worth of cuts by next September, suggesting we could see as few as two 0.25 bps cuts next year. The FT has more on what to expect from the three meetings.

MACRO WATCH- The week will also bring inflation data from the EU, Britain, Canada, and Germany.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day two of the three-day International MICE Summit (IMS24) in Riyadh. Some 1k industry players from 70 countries are in town for the gathering.

Brace for more traffic: 12 additional events are coming to Saudi next year, per announcements yesterday, including:

  • Money20/20 (by Informa / Tahaluf);
  • FIBO (RX Global);
  • World Refining Technology Congress;
  • Advanced Therapies Week;
  • Fire Department and Emergency Services Conference (Clarion);
  • FSB Sports Show and International Hardware Show (Koelnmesse/DMG);
  • HOST (Fiera Milano);
  • ArabLab (Terrapin);
  • Saudi Muscle Show (Italian Exhibition Group);
  • World Industrial Materials and World Advanced Packaging, Printing & Plastics (Kaoun)

And new office openings: Event and trade fair organizers RX Global, Messe Munich, and Clarion Events will open offices in the Kingdom.

Fast fact: The domestic conferences and exhibitions sector grew 15% withs ome 17k business events held in 2023, acting CEO of the General Authority for Exhibitions and Conferences Hatem Al-Kahili told Aleqtisadiah.

MEANWHILE- The three-day International Forum for Saudi Reef kicks off today in the Intercontinental Al Ahsa, covering sustainable agriculture, rural entrepreneurship, and technology in farming.

AND- It’s day two of five for the UN’s Internet Governance Forum and the second and final day of the Supply Chain and Logistics Conference. Both take place in Riyadh.

WEATHER– Riyadh remains cool today with a crisp high of 18°C and a low of 3°C. Thunderstorms are expected in Jeddah, where the mercury will peak at 31°C before dipping to a low of 21°C. Meanwhile, Madinah will see a high of 24°C and a low of 8°C.

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- SAR expands North Train line to boost mining: Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) is expanding its North Train freight line at a cost of SAR 5 bn, Transport Minister Saleh Al Jasser announced at the Supply Chain and Logistics Conference. The expansion aims to strengthen the connection between the Kingdom’s rail networks and east coast ports to support its growing mining sector.

#2- A delegation representing 27 US-based women-led or owned SMEs is here to explore business opportunities, with agreements and partnerships expected in the coming weeks across sectors such as transportation, education, healthcare, and technology, US Ambassador Michael Ratney told Asharq Business in an interview (watch, runtime: 2:44).

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Kingdom is currently developing 18 logistics hubs at a total investment cost of SAR 10 bn, Arab News reports, citing unnamed senior officials. The Kingdom plans to increase the number of logistics zones to 59, up from 22 by 2030, Transport and Logistics Minister Saleh Al Jasser announced during the Supply Chain Conference.

#2- The domestic re-exports sector grew 23% y-o-y to SAR 61 bn in 2024, Argaam reports citing statements made by Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Alkhorayef

#3- The government spends a minimum of SAR 60 bn on the sports sector annually, the Investment Ministry official Basim Ibrahim told Asharq Business. This is in addition to a SAR 100 bn in investments earmarked for the 2034 World Cup, Ibrahim stated.

#4- Riyadh residents led electricity consumption in 2023: Residential electricity consumption in Riyadh made up 28% of the Kingdom’s total consumption last year, followed by Makkah (25.5) and the Eastern Province (16.7), according to a General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) report (pdf).

FROM THE RUMOR MILL-

First Heathrow Airport, now Newcastle Airport? The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is reportedly vying for a piece of Newcastle Airport as the UK looks to sell a 49% stake worth as much as GBP 1 bn, the Sunday Times reports, citing what it says are City sources. The stake on offer is owned by Infrabridge. JP Morgan is quarterbacking the sale. The fund also owns Newcastle United FC.

Last week, the fund completed the acquisition of a 15% stake in FGP TopCo, Heathrow Airport’s parent company from Spanish infrastructure player Ferrovial and other shareholders.

NOMU WATCH-

IPO WATCH- Shares of Balsm Alofoq will begin trading on Nomu today at SAR 60 apiece. Trading in the first three days will be capped at ±30%, after which the daily limit will be capped at ±10.

The Buraidah-based hospital operator is taking a 25% stake to Tadawul’s parallel market. The final pricing sees the medical firm raising SAR 15 mn in proceeds, giving it a market cap of SAR 75 mn at listing.

ADVISORS- Yaqeen Capital is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor and lead manager.

SPORTS-

From the world of tennis: The round-robin field at the men’s ATP Next Gen Finals in Jeddah has taken shape. World #20 Arthur Fils of France tops the Blue Group, while #41 Alex Michelsen (USA) is atop the Red Group.

The Next Gen Finals get underway on Wednesday at King Abdullah Sports City and will see four matches played each day — two in the afternoon, and two in the evening — with the final scheduled for Sunday, 22 December. Each player will have three round-robin matches, before the top two in each group meet in the semifinals. Matches are best of five sets, with the first player to take four games taking the set.

Want to go deeper? Check out the Next Gen website.

PSAs-

#1- Landowners whose land was expropriated for Riyadh’s USD 50 bn New Murabba downtown project can now claim compensation by visiting Tanmiah’s Riyadh branch or contacting them on this line 800 121 0020, state news agency SPA reports.

#2- Qassim Municipality issued a call for investors to develop and operate a 1 mn sqm dry port east of Buraidah, according to a post on X. The port is planned to be a key logistics hub, featuring customs clearance services and facilitating integrated transport.

#3- Managing minors’ funds just got easier: The General Commission for the Guardianship of Trust Funds for Minors (Wilayah) launched an online platform for managing minors’ funds, it said in a post on X. The service streamlines access to over 100 services.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a mixed bag in the global press this morning, with major geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, a downbeat warning on the USD, and a once-in-a-century storm all getting ink.

Israel announced plans to expand its population in the Golan Heights, citing the strategic importance of the area. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to increase its presence in the occupied Golan Heights despite international backlash — “strengthening the Golan is strengthening the State of Israel, and it is especially important at this time. We will continue to hold onto it,” he said in a statement. (Reuters | BBC | Financial Times | Washington Post)

MEANWHILE – Cyclone Chido hits Mayotte: The most powerful storm to hit the French Indian Ocean area of Mayotte in over a century, Cyclone Chido hit the French archipelago last night leaving hundreds dead before heading to Mozambique. In Mayotte local officials fear the death toll could reach thousands as emergency crews struggle with destroyed infrastructure and disrupted communications. (Reuters | BBC | CNN | The Guardian | New York Times)

AND- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is hoping to lose a confidence vote today in the Bundestag in a bid to trigger snap elections on 23 February.

IN BUSINESS NEWS- Trump policies will likely change how investors feel about the USD, Bloomberg writes, explaining that the greenback will likely face pressures next year on the back of president-elect Donald Trump’s policies and upcoming rate cuts. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase see the USD peaking mid-2025 before falling.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The two-day Impact Makers Forum (ImpaQ) is set to open its doors on 18 December, bringing together media influencers, industry experts, and digital content creators in Riyadh’s Mayadeen Hall.

#2- The two-day Forbes Middle East’s Women’s Summit will take place on 18 December at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

An all-star speakers lineup: Confirmed speakers include Princess Lamia Bint Majed Saud Al Saud, Princess Prof. Mashael Bint Mohammed Al Saud, Princess Doaa Bint Mohammed, and our friend Dalia Khorshid.

#3- The three-day Future Minerals Forum kicks off on 14 January at Riyadh’s King Abdulaziz International Conference Center.

#4- The three-day Future Hospitality Forum opens its doors 11 May at the Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

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