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Retail rents in the Kingdom’s top-tier malls are holding steady despite increased interest from international retail outlets and investors, according to Knight Frank’s Autumn 2024 Saudi Arabia Retail Market Overview (pdf). Riyadh bucked the national trend, with rents at the city’s mega malls up 4.2% y-o-y in 3Q to SAR 2.8k per sqm.
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Riyadh maintains its retail edge: Despite the retail rent hike, occupancy rates in the capital city were up five percentage points y-o-y to 92% in 3Q, with prime malls in strategic locales maintaining next to full capacity. Supply of retail space is also growing, with some 22.5k sqm added to the market in 3Q, bringing Riyadh’s total retail space to 3.8 mn sqm. This is expected to grow to hit a total of 4.3 mn sqm by 2026 as major projects such as Avenues Mall and Jawharat Mall come online.
The view from Jeddah: Jeddah’s retail scene saw 175k sqm of fresh retail space come online in the past 10 months, with new high-end boutiques and global brands at hotspots such as Souq 7 and La Paz Mall helping push the supply of retail space in Jeddah to 2.8 mn sqm by the end of the third quarter. Despite the influx, rents rose by a moderate 1.2% y-o-y to SAR 2.5k per sqm in the third quarter, while occupancy rates dipped 1 percentage point to 86% as markets adjusted to new consumer patterns. The city’s total retail supply is expected to hit 3.3 mn sqm by 2026 as new developments come online.
Meanwhile, retail rents in Dammam Metropolitan Area (DMA) fell 0.7% y-o-y to SAR 2.3k per sqm in the third quarter, despite occupancy rates remaining level y-o-y at 90%. DMA’s stock of retail space stood at some 1.3 mn sqm during the period, but is set to increase by 868k sqm by 2026. The addition of new retail space is expected to further weigh down prices and occupancy rates in DMA, the report said.
Point-of-sale (POS) spending in the Kingdom was up 9.7% y-o-y in August to sit at SAR 58.5 bn. Food and beverages accounted for 36% of POS spending, driven by an increase in income, tourism, and changing lifestyles and demographics. Riyadh accounted for 34% of POS spending throughout the Kingdom, followed by Jeddah at 14%.
Looking ahead: Rents throughout the country are expected to fall with some 7.4 mn sqm in new retail space in the pipeline — including 2.6 mn sqm in Riyadh — and as e-commerce continues to overtake in-store shopping.
E-commerce grew 22% y-o-y to SAR 124 bn during the first eight months of the year on the back of 97% smartphone penetration, increased internet usages, and supportive government policies. Platforms such as Noon, Amazon.sa, and Jarir are popular destinations for Saudis opting for the convenience of online shopping.
Saudi’s retail sector is expected to continue growing at a CAGR of 4.2% until 2028 when it is expected to hit USD 189 bn in yearly retail sales, accounting for 53.4% of the GCC market. Meanwhile, retail landlords are flipping the script by leaning into “experiential retail” concepts such as movie theatres, wellness hubs, learning centers, and entertainment zones at future developments in a bid to turn the tide on e-commerce, boost footfalls, and keep shoppers hanging around for longer.
