Good morning, friends. We have a rather meaty issue for you today, leading with the launch of the Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Company’s new carbon trading platform on the sidelines of COP29 in Azerbaijan. Real estate is also a running theme this morning, with the latest from Cityscape Global and expectations of real estate demand in Saudi over the next several years.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud is in Azerbaijan for COP29, which runs until Friday, 22 November in the country’s capital Baku, according to the Azerbaijan state news agency.

Inflation data for October is set to be released tomorrow. Inflation accelerated to 1.7% y-o-y in September, up from 1.6% in August. September’s reading marks the highest inflation rate since February. On a monthly basis, prices inched up 0.1%, driven by a 0.8% uptick in housing rents and prices.

NEWS TRIGGERS-

A handful of news triggers coming up in the next few weeks:

  • Trade balance for September (Sunday, 24 November);
  • Riyad Bank PMI for November (Tuesday, 3 December);
  • State budget approval and release (December).

WEATHER- Riyadh is looking at a high of 31°C and a low of 18°C today. Over in Jeddah, the mercury will peak at 34°C and hit a low of 26°C. Meanwhile, Madinah is looking at a high of 33°C and a low of 19°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Saudi Arabia needs to add 115k homes a year to its real estate market for the next six years to meet rising demand, which is on the up due to the Kingdom’s ambitious 70% homeownership target by 2030 and its sizable younger population trying to secure homes, Bloomberg reports, citing a report from Knight Frank. The Kingdom’s homeownership rate hit 63.7% at the end of last year.

Gov’t could have 300k ready by the end of 2025: The state-run National Housing Company has been tasked with building affordable housing options, with 200k homes in the pipeline and potential for that figure to reach 300k by the end of 2025, Knight Frank’s Chief Economist for MENA Christopher Payne estimates.

#2- A GCC-UK freetrade agreement could be signed later this year as talks enter the final stages, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The GCC nations have been working on the draft agreement since 2022, which has seen seven rounds of talks so far. If finalized, the agreement could be followed by individual trade pacts between the UK and GCC countries.

More FTAs on the way: GCC-Japan freetrade talks are set to kick off this month, after the two parties agreed on terms of reference in October. Terms of reference for a freetrade agreement with Malaysia have also been agreed on, but talks are still pending the Malaysian government’s approval to kick off.

#3- Nigeria is pursuing a USD 5 bn trade facility from Saudi Arabia to aid its economic reform plans, Bloomberg reports. President Bola Tinubu discussed the proposal with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh.

#4- Imax could announce its first Saudi dialect production later this year, the company’s CEO Richard Gelfond told Arabian Business. “We have been talking about it. Even over the last five years, I have had multiple meetings with the Culture Ministry in Saudi about getting more relevant content,” he added.

DATA POINTS-

Saudi drivers pulled in over SAR 1.1 bn through ride-hailing apps in 9M 2024, the Transport General Authority said in a press release. The number of trips was up 21% y-o-y in 3Q, with some 51.8 mn rides booked across 46 licensed apps. Riyadh captured most of this growth, racking up 39% of all rides, followed by Makkah at 25%, and the Eastern Province at 16%.

OIL WATCH-

Opec slashes demand forecasts again: The group of oil producing nations cut growth forecasts for global oil demand for the fourth month in a row, according to its latest monthly report (pdf). Opec now sees demand rising 1.8 mn bbl / d y-o-y in 2024, down 107k bbl / d from previous estimates as data from China, India, and Africa came in below expectations.

The group cut its demand growth projections by almost a fifth since July, as crude prices plummet, Bloomberg said. Nevertheless, the group’s estimates are higher than those issued by other market analysts, including Saudi Aramco. Opec’s projected growth rate is twice the number cited by rival International Energy Agency, Bloomberg explained.

Oil prices have fallen 18% since July, hitting USD 72 a barrel, as sluggish growth in China outweighs concerns about conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East, the business information service said. However, Donald Trump’s return to the White House may lead to shakeups in market outlook.

On the upside: Opec’s report notes that troublesome members have taken steps to improve compliance, with Kazakhstan folding in additional cuts below its quota to compensate for previous overproduction.

The next checkpoint: The group will hold its next meeting on Sunday, 1 December where it is expected to review plans for phasing out production cuts. Opec+ put off a planned output hike for December earlier this month, with the delay marking the second postponement for production restarts that were originally penciled in for October.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s another morning of the international press keeping track of the cabinet positions US president-elect Donald Trump is filling in before his term begins in January. The rundown:

AND- Elon Musk and Roivant Sciences founder Vivek Ramaswamy are leading what Trump is calling the Department of Government Efficiency. Musk’s appointment comes after the Tesla CEO endorsed Trump’s presidency bid and ran a lottery pool for voters to encourage turnout. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Wall Street Journal | CNBC)

KEEPING TABS- Politico is keeping a running tab on the positions filled so far in Trump’s cabinet, while the Financial Times notes that the incoming president looked to loyalists to fill key positions, including Hegseth and Ratcliffe.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Saudi Rail Conference and Exhibition will take place on 20-21 November at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center. The event will showcase developments in the railway sector and provide insights from over 150 local and international speakers.

The Black Hat MEA 2024 cybersecurity conference and exhibition will take place between 26-28 November at the Riyadh Exhibition & Conference Center in Malham. The event will gather cybersecurity professionals and technology developers. Speakers include information security leaders from Bayer, SoftBank Investment Advisors, the US Intelligence Community, the CIA, and Knostic.

The two-day Zakat, Tax and Customs Conference 2024 will kick off on 4 December at the King Abdullah Financial District. The event will bring together over 50 speakers and 10k attendees to chew over some of the solutions for the applications of zakat, tax and customs.

The two-day Impact Makers Forum (ImpaQ) is set to open its doors on 18 December, bringing together media influencers, industry experts, and digital content creators in Riyadh’s Mayadeen Hall.

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