Sign in
Economists downgrade Saudi’s 2025 growth outlook: The Saudi economy is expected to record 4.4% growth in 2025, according to the latest Reuters poll of economists. The results of the October poll mark a slim downward revision from the July poll, which saw economists penciling in a 4.5% growth rate for the Kingdom next year.
This year is still on track: The economists polled maintained their expectations of the country’s economy growing at a 1.3% clip in 2024 on the back of higher oil output as Opec+ scraps voluntary cuts which have been in place since late 2022.
REMEMBER- Saudi’s GDP shrank 0.4% in 2Q 2024, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction. Figures for 3Q are not yet available.
(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)
More conservative than the IMF and gov’t: The IMF trimmed Saudi Arabia’s 2024 growth forecast to 1.5% earlier this week, while tweaking 2025’s projection to 4.6%. These numbers
align with the Finance Ministry’s pre-budget forecast for FY 2025 which sees the economy growing 0.8% this year and 4.6% in the next, on the back of an uptick in non-oil activities.
The majority of economists polled expect the non-oil sector to grow at a similar rate to the oil sector and to contribute to economic growth this year and the next. Nevertheless, non-oil revenues are not set to replace oil revenues just yet.
Oil prices are expected to remain “broadly weak” at a USD 76.8 / bbl average next year, according to a separate poll from the newswire. Nonetheless, higher production volumes are expected to offset the fall in prices and yield gains, head of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence Ralf Wiegert suggested.
IN CONTEXT- Opec+ is planning to phase out supply cuts by December, putting it on course for a 180k barrel per day (bbl / d) hike by the end of the year, the group said previously. Lack of compliance by certain member states could also push the Kingdom to ditch an unofficial USD 100 / bbl price target and boost production at a quicker rate, leveraging its considerable spare capacity to make a play for market share.
