Good morning, wonderful people. We have another busy issue to send you off into the weekend, leading with signs that Manara Minerals is closing in on acquiring a minority stake in First Quantum’s assets in Zambia, and Tamweel Aloula closed the first issuance in its AT1 capital sukuk program. Plus: The World Bank’s Mena economic update isn’t as bad as it seems on first glance.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is in Brussels for the inaugural Gulf-European summit, state news agency SPA reports. Bin Salman is joined by other GCC leaders representing Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE, with both blocs looking for common ground on trade, investment, renewable energy, security, and visa requirements, Reuters reports. UAE citizens can currently enter the EU without a visa, while passport holders from other GCC states must apply for a five-year visa first.

MEANWHILE- The Saudi Fund for Development is financing three development projects in Serbia worth a total of USD 205 mn, according to a post on X. The projects include a USD 75 mn irrigation infrastructure project spanning 230 km, a USD 65 mn bioscience campus in Belgrade, and a USD 65 mn transmission system to improve electricity coverage.

WEATHER- Riyadh is looking at a high of 37°C, and a low of 24°C today. Over in Madinah, the temperature will peak at 39°C, before dropping to 25°C. Meanwhile, Jeddah will see a high of 40°C, and a low of 29°C.

WORLD BANK MENA ECONOMIC UPDATE

The World Bank’s semi-annual MENA economic outlook was out overnight. The report sounds a distinct note of caution about how war in Gaza (to say nothing of Lebanon and the menace to Red Sea shipping) is an overhang on economic growth. Check out the announcement here and the report here (pdf).

The report plays up the deceleration of growth in 2024, saying that it’s been driven largely by the GCC economies. MENA economies as a whole will grow about 2.2% in 2024 — better than the 1.8% we saw in 2023, but far off the 5.8% pace we saw the year before.

We hope we’re not indulging our inner Pollyanna, but… That take masks the bank’s own forecast for a sharp pickup in growth next year. Check out (numbered) page 11, where the report’s authors are forecasting that growth in 2025 will accelerate to 3.8% across the region.

For the Big Three, the World Bank see:

  • UAE growth at 4.1% in 2025, up from 3.3% this year;
  • Saudi growing at a 4.9% clip in 2025, compared to just 1.6% this year;
  • Egypt’s economy expanding 3.5% in 2025, compared to 2.5% this year.

The worry: “Economic uncertainty in MENA is currently twice the average of other emerging markets and developing economies worldwide,” the report writes, saying its estimate is based on its measure of “the dispersion of views amongst private sector forecasters.”

What to watch for next: The report is out ahead of the kickoff next week of the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, DC. The meetings run Monday, 21 October through Saturday, 26 October, with the main events taking place 22-25 October.

^^ We’ll have another look at the report today and get back to you folks tomorrow if there’s anything else worth knowing.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Shares of the owner and operator of Burgerizzr will be suspended from trading on Nomu starting on Wednesday, 30 October for a maximum of five days ahead of its transition from Nomu to Tadawul’s main market, according to the transfer document (pdf).

ADVISORS- The company tapped Alkhair Capital as financial advisor on its transition to the main market. The Law Firm of Maha Mohammed Al Morgen is acting as legal counsel on the transition, while RSM is the financial due diligence advisor, and BDO is legal accountant. The company had initially filed for the transition in November 2023, but soon decided to put it on hold after failing to round off some regulatory requirements.

#2- Moonbase to invest USD 15 mn in search funds with an eye on emerging markets: Spain-based search fund investment firm Moonbase Capital has launched its second, USD 15 mn investment vehicle, with some 40% of the funds earmarked for deployment in emerging economies. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are on Moonbase’s list, EnterpriseAM Egypt reports.

Search funds? Search funds are investment outfits that raise capital to acquire well-performing small- or medium-sized businesses (SMEs). They’ll often then bring in an experienced entrepreneur to run the business and grow the company before exiting.

The details: Moonbase’s new fund will aim for 10-15% stakes with an average ticket price of EUR 1.25 mn over the coming 3-4 years. The fund is led by Managing Partners Tamer El Bahay and Tarek El Gammal.

#3- No more regional HQ for BNP Paribas? BNP Paribas doesn’t want to have to choose between Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh — so it’s planning to cut staff in Bahrain and “scrap Manama as its Middle East and Africa head office,” Reuters says, citing unnamed sources. All of its offices in our neck of the woods would instead report into Paris if the plan goes ahead.

#3- Saudi and Egyptian private sector players have pledged to make investments worth USD 15 bn in Egypt across renewable energy, industry, real estate, tourism, and technology sectors, Saudi-Egyptian Business Council head Bandar Al Amri told Al Arabiya Business, without naming any of the potential investors. The investments were pending the Promotion and Mutual Protection of Investments agreement was signed on Tuesday in Cairo during Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman’s meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

#4- Saudi firms are reportedly in negotiations for projects with Algeria’s state-owned oil company Sonatrach to ramp up production at the company’s facilities, Elkhabar quotes National Agency for Hydrocarbon Resources Development President Mourad Beldjehem as saying. No additional details were provided.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom decreased 10.6% w-o-w for the week ending 12 October at SAR 12.3 bn, according to the Saudi Central Bank (Sama)’s report (pdf). Meanwhile, the number of weekly transactions was down 4.6% at 208.5k.

The breakdown: Food and beverages saw the highest spending during the week, despite falling 14.3% w-o-w at SAR 1.91 bn, followed by restaurants and cafes at SAR 1.86 bn, down 4.5%. Education recorded the steepest weekly decline in number of transactions, falling 36.0% w-o-w. Meanwhile, Riyadh had the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 4.3 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 1.7 bn.

#2- The Saudi Export-Import Bank provided USD 1.2 bn in credit facilities to global export houses to help them overcome trade barriers, Mubasher quotes CEO Saad Al Khalab as saying.

FROM THE RUMOR MILL-

Goldman Sachs’ Saudi CEO Khalid Albdah (LinkedIn) is rumored to be stepping down in the coming weeks, Bloomberg and Reuters each reported yesterday, citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter. No reason has been disclosed on why Albdah will be parting ways with the bank. Albdah joined the firm from Al Rajhi Capital in 2013 and has headed its Saudi operations since 2015. Albdah also serves as the managing director of Goldman Sachs’ Saudi asset management division.

REMEMBER: Goldman Sachs was the first Wall Street bank to receive a regional headquarters license as part of its drive to expand operations in the Kingdom. The bank has advised on numerous recent major transactions, including Aramco’s USD 12 bn secondary offering.

SPORTS-

#1- The Green Falcons continue to falter in their World Cup qualifiers, after drawing a blank against Bahrain here at home. Our national team is currently level on points with Australia and Bahrain at 5 points each, and currently holds third place in Group C on goal difference.

#2- Inter Milan is coming to Saudi: Inter Milan has become the first international football club to acquire a commercial license to operate in-country from the Investment Ministry, it said in a statement. The Italian club is looking to expand its fan base among local youth, establish training academies, and organize local events among other activities in the Kingdom, the statement said.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The race for the White House has pushed business news a bit further down the front pages with 18 days to go until voters head to the polls in the United States. Harris raised substantially more than Trump in 3Q and the two are chasing each other’s voters.

INTEREST RATE WATCH- Economists see the European Central Bank delivering another quarter-point rate cut when it meets later today — and Goldman Sachs thinks the US Federal Reserve will deliver consecutive 0.25 bps cuts from November through June 2025.

ON WALL STREET:

IN TECH- Uber’s super-app ambitions now see it kicking the tires on the acquisition of travel website Expedia. The Financial Times notes that while transaction is in very early stages and could still go bust, Uber chief Dara Khosrowshahi was the CEO of Expedia for a dozen years ending in 2017 and is still on the site’s board of directors, “making it likely that any approach would be friendly.”

In Lebanon: Israel has stepped up its attack with further strikes and is claiming to have killed a Hezbollah commander yesterday.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Professional Fighters League’s (PFL) Battle of the Giants is coming to Riyadh on Saturday, 19 October. Headlining the card, MMA superstar Francis Ngannou will face PFL heavyweight champion Renan Ferreira for the title of inaugural PFL Super Champion. Meanwhile, women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg will square off against Larissa Pachecho for the World Title Fight in the co-main event. Expect fireworks with additional matchups featuring Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards and A.J. McKee vs. Paul Hughes.

The three-day Seamless Saudi Arabia will take place at the Riyadh Front Center on Tuesday, 22 October. Business leaders and entrepreneurs from around the world will gather to discuss the latest trends shaping the digital commerce and fintech sectors. Notable speakers include representatives from the World Economic Forum, our friends at Cenomi, as well as Al Rajhi Bank, Riyad Bank, and Saudi Awwal Bank, among others.

The two-day Multilateral Industrial Policy Forum will kick off in Riyadh on Wednesday, 23 October. The forum will address global industrial challenges, focusing on topics like industrial policy, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing tech. The forum is organized by The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry in partnership with UNIDO. The Kingdom will also host the UNIDO General Conference in 2025.

The Human Resources and Manpower Expo kicks off on Sunday, 27 October at the Riyadh International Exhibition and Convention Center, expecting over 1k exhibitors and 22k visitors.

The five-day Jeddah International Motor Show revs up on Tuesday, 29 October, running through Saturday, 2 November. The event will showcase motorcycle and drift shows, sim and kart racing, a lineup of custom-tuned cars, and more.

WWE Raw is coming to RIyadh for the first time ever on 2-3 November, kicking off on the back of the WWE Crown Jewel event the day prior, Turki Alalshikh said in a post on X. You can book your Raw tickets here, and your Crown Jewel tickets here.

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