Good morning, wonderful people, and happy almost-THURSDAY. We’re closing on the end of what has shaped up to be a rather busy week here in the Kingdom.

THE BIG STORY TODAY- Inflation crept up again in September, hitting a seven-month high at 1.7% in September.The fresh data marks the second-highest reading YTD, after consumer prices recorded a 1.8% y-o-y increase in February.

PLUS- Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman arrived in Cairo yesterday for a high-stakes meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, sealing two agreements to boost mutual investments.

HAPPENING TODAY- The crown prince will head with his delegation to Brussels today to participate in the first EU-Gulf Cooperation summit, SPA reported.

FACT CHECK- The Kremlin has retracted an earlier statement confirming the Kingdom’s status as a member of the BRICS alliance, Reuters reports. The Kingdom was invited to join the alliance late last year, but has yet to formalize its membership. “The summit will take place now, we will supply additional information on who will represent Saudi Arabia, whether it will be represented at this summit, and we will draw conclusions from this,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, referring to the BRICS summit set to be hosted by Russia during 22-24 October.

WEATHER WARNING- Al Taif, Maysan, Adham, and Al Ardiyat in the Makkah Province, as well as Al Baha, Aseer, Najran, and Jazan provinces will see moderate to heavy rainfall, coupled with strong winds and dust storms, flash flooding, and hailstorms until Friday, according to a warning issued by the General Directorate of Civil Defense. Meanwhile, Riyadh and the Eastern Province are expected to see light to moderate rainfall.

PSAs-

TGA pulls the brakes on issuing new delivery motorcycle licenses: The Transport General Authority (TGA) halted the issuance of new licenses for motorcycles used to deliver mobile app orders, Saudi Gazette reports citing a statement by TGA spokesperson Saleh Al Zuwayed. This pause will remain in effect until new regulations are released as part of a broader push to regulate the sector. Companies currently operating under licenses obtained during the experimental phase will not be affected, but the pilot phase has officially ended.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Some USD 28 bn in global investments across multiple sectors will be announced at the upcoming PIF-backed Future Investment Initiative Forum in Riyadh, which will run from 29-31 October, state news agency SPA reports, quoting FII Institute CEO Richard Attias.

#2- Dubai-based Khazna Data Centers plans to expand further into the Middle East and Asia. It is closing in on the location for a USD 250 mn data center in Egypt (set for completion in 2026) and is in advanced stages of construction in Saudi Arabia. Turkey and Southeast Asia are also on its radar.

#3- Saudi landscaping and agricultural contractor Nabatat Contracting Company (NCC) plans to invest some SAR 350 mn in the local manufacturing sector, Zawya quotes Chairman Waleed Hamed Al Khaldi as saying. The firm is partnering with a Chinese company to locally manufacture greenhouse technology for King Salman Park, while also collaborating with Korean firms to manufacture plastic pots. NCC is also pursuing a SAR 75 mn food waste recycling project to produce compost for its nurseries, attracting interest from SABIC.

GCC expansion is also in the cards: NCC has invested SAR 50 mn to establish a company in Bahrain and plans to expand to Dubai, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait over the next five years, Al Khaldi said.

#4- KAUST’s new head prioritizes US ties, plans to limit AI cooperation with China: Professor Sir Edward Byrne, head of King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), pledged to avoid AI collaborations with China that could jeopardize access to US-made chips, reports the Financial Times. Byrne emphasized aligning with “the areas I know best, which are the UK, Europe and the US,” while adhering to US trade regulations to safeguard partnerships. His predecessor, Tony Chan, expanded ties with China through a joint AI project to develop an Arabic-focused language model called AceGPT, raising concerns that such partnerships could hinder access to advanced US technology.

Balancing act: Saudi Arabia has been navigating AI while balancing trade with the US and China, with a tilt toward US tech as part of a potential Saudi-US defense pact. An Aramco fund invested in China’s rival to OpenAI, Zhipu AI, in June. Meanwhile, Saudi officials have been negotiating with Nvidia to gain access to its H200s chips and landed an agreement for 5k GPUs from the US firm.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Bank credit across all public and private segments increased 12.1% y-o-y to SAR 2.8 tn in August, according to the latest Sama monthly statistical bulletin (pdf). Personal loans accounted for the lion’s share of new bank credit for the months at SAR 1.3 tn, followed by real estate (SAR 303.5 bn), and wholesale and retail trade (SAR 201.3 bn). Most of the new loans had long term maturities (SAR 1.3 tn), with short term and medium term maturity loans totaling SAR 1.1 tn and SAR 426.4 bn.

#2- Investments in sectors under the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program are projected to hit SAR 600 bn by year-end, up from SAR 524 bn last year, with aspirations to reach SAR 1 tn by 2030, CEO Suleiman Al Mazroui told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 4:26).

SPORTS-

Lightweight American MMA fighter AJ McKee sees Riyadh becoming the world fight capital “in the near future,” citing its track record of hosting “very big cards,” the welcoming atmosphere, and “ideal” environment free from negative influences from athletes, he said in a press release (pdf). McKee will face Irishman Paul Hughes at Battle of the Giants on Saturday, 19 October, at the Mayadeen.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Nothing goes up and to the right forever. That’s the key takeaway on a very busy morning for global business news as market watchers join an increasingly loud debate about how much gas is left in the tank for the global equities market.

On the “we’re worried” side: Shars of the most important tech company you’ve never heard of slumped the most in 26 years after it booked not even 50% of the orders analysts expected. ASML Holding makes key equipment that chipmakers themselves use to make chips; the shortfall in orders has folks taking a deeper look at the chipmaking industry. Companies that sell chips with AI applications are doing really well — those that sell more workaday semiconductors for the auto, memory, and other industries? Not doing nearly as well.

Also on the worried side of the ledger: Luxury goods conglomerate LVMH saw sales slump in 3Q and says the outlook is “uncertain,” thanks in large part to a pullback in spending by Chinese consumers.

On the other side: US consumers look on track to spend about 3.5% more during the upcoming holiday season, a business group representing American retailers said. And Goldman Sachs has just reported a “monster jump” in 3Q earnings while Bank of America did a bit better than analysts had expected and Citi recorded 44% increase in fee income from investment banking activities.

The state of the debate (presented with no guidance…): Can the stock market keep going up? Market watchers think so.

ALSO IN THE BUSINESS PAGES on this fine fall morning:

MEANWHILE- There are 19 days to go until the US election. About 2x more voters turned out to cast early ballots yesterday in the key state of Georgia compared to during the 2020 cycle. Kamala Harris is on a media blitz. And Donald Trump is beating his protectionist drum.

IN POLITICS- Washington has warned Tel Aviv it has 30 days to allow more aid into Gaza or risk a cut to arms sales (Wall Street Journal | New York Time | Reuters).

And for our fellow iSheep: Apple has released an updated iPad Mini with a beefed up processor (the same as in last year’s Pro model) and the same big, ugly bezels as last year, too.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Professional Fighters League’s (PFL) Battle of the Giants is coming to Riyadh on Saturday, 19 October. Headlining the card, MMA superstar Francis Ngannou will face PFL heavyweight champion Renan Ferreira for the title of inaugural PFL Super Champion. Meanwhile, women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg will square off against Larissa Pachecho for the World Title Fight in the co-main event. Expect fireworks with additional matchups featuring Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards and A.J. McKee vs. Paul Hughes.

The three-day Seamless Saudi Arabia will take place at the Riyadh Front Center on Tuesday, 22 October. Business leaders and entrepreneurs from around the world will gather to discuss the latest trends shaping the digital commerce and fintech sectors. Notable speakers include representatives from the World Economic Forum, our friends at Cenomi, as well as Al Rajhi Bank, Riyad Bank, and Saudi Awwal Bank, among others.

The two-day Multilateral Industrial Policy Forum will kick off in Riyadh on Wednesday, 23 October. The forum will address global industrial challenges, focusing on topics like industrial policy, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing tech. The forum is organized by The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry in partnership with UNIDO. The Kingdom will also host the UNIDO General Conference in 2025.

WWE Raw is coming to RIyadh for the first time ever on 2-3 November, kicking off on the back of the WWE Crown Jewel event the day prior, Turki Alalshikh said in a post on X. You can book your Raw tickets here, and your Crown Jewel tickets here.

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