Sign in
Opec+ trims oil demand growth forecast: The group of oil-producing nations now sees global demand rising 2% y-o-y — or 1.9 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) — in 2024. That figure is 106k bbl / d less than September estimates, according to the group’s monthly oil market report (pdf). This is the third month in a row that Opec+ revises down its outlook for global oil consumption, according to Bloomberg. “The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 is also revised down by 102 bpd to 1.6 mn bpd y-o-y.”
Demand could drop even lower: The business news information service said that the last revision is still well above the estimates of Wall Street banks — and at the top end of the range expected by Aramco.
The regional outlook: Oil demand in the Middle East is expected to grow by 265k bbl / d y-o-y n 4Q, and 200 bbl / d y-o-y in 2024 to average 8.8 mn bbl / d, fueled by steady economic activity, robust air traffic and the return of expat workers. The outlook for 2025 shows an additional 249k bbl / d of consumption growth, primarily from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with total regional demand projected to hit 9.1 mn bbl / d next year.
A snapshot of July figures: Oil demand in the Middle East surged by 304k bbl / d in July, up from 196k bbl / d y-o-y in June, “largely supported by the ‘other products’ category and residual fuel demand for electricity generation in the hot summer season, mostly from Saudi Arabia.”
(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)
On the supply side: Global oil supply is set to increase by 1.2 mn bbl / d this year, averaging 53.1 mn bbl / d, mainly driven by production increases in the US, Canada, Brazil and China. The forecast for next year’s oil supply level growth was also left unchanged at 1.1 mn bbl / d y-o-y to an average of 54.2 mn bbl / d.
Opec+ output in September: Opec+ crude oil production saw a notable decline in September, with total output averaging 26 mn bbl / d, down by 604k bbl / d m-o-m. Among Opec+ members, the Kingdom recorded a decrease of 23k bbl / d m-o-m, with output averaging 8.97 mn bbl / d. Libya, Iraq, and Nigeria also saw drops in production, while Iran Kuwait reported slight increases.
What’s next? Opec+ is anticipated to decide on its planned output increase for December in the coming weeks. The cartel opted earlier this month to stay the course on its planned oil production target, including plans to phase out supply cuts by December, putting it on course for a 180k bbl / d hike by the end of the year. The group is set to meet on 1 December to discuss production policy for 2025.
AND- WATCH OUT TODAY for the IEA’s October report, due out later this morning.
