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Non-oil business activity in the Kingdom rose to its highest level in four months, signaling renewed confidence in the private sector following a period of slower growth in early 3Q, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The seasonally-adjusted headline figure climbed to 56.3 in September from 54.8 in August, remaining well above the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction. September marks the second consecutive month Saudi’s PMI figure has risen.
This is doubly important given the weak outlook for oil on the back of production cuts and flagging oil prices, Chief Economist at Riyad Bank Naif Al Ghaith said. “As oil revenues come under pressure, the robust performance of the non-oil private sector serves as a buffer, helping to mitigate the potential impact on the country’s economic health,” he adds.
New orders + output driving growth: The uptick was mainly driven by a surge in new orders and output as businesses tapped stronger domestic demand and rolled out new projects across a number of sectors. New clients and marketing efforts also contributed to the boost in orders, with export orders also seeing marginal growth. “Rising output levels not only enhance the competitiveness of Saudi businesses but also drive forward developments aimed at expanding private sector participation in the economy,” Al Ghaith also said.
Hiring was also up: Firms ramped up hiring efforts to keep up with new orders and reduce workloads. Nevertheless, shortages in skilled workers and weather-related disruptions meant that backlogs grew marginally in September.
Competitive pressures kept prices in check: Businesses reduced selling prices for the third month in a row, despite facing higher input costs from materials, wages, and technology costs. Higher competition also led some firms to dial back their outlook for future activity.
Firms’ purchasing activity eased: A sharp uptick in inventories among non-oil firms led some firms to “reassess” their purchasing, leading purchasing growth to hit a three-year low. Supplier delivery times improved at their slowest rate since August 2023.
The outlook is positive: Upward momentum in the non-oil private sector signals wider business confidence, “showing a healthy environment to increase investment, job creation, and overall economic stability,” Al-Ghaith adds. Besides hedging against a fall in oil markets, greater output in the non-oil private economy also provides a basis underpinning long-term growth, Riyadh Bank’s chief economist adds.
