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Executives and decision makers expect to see strong economic performance across the GCC this year, despite macroeconomic headwinds, according to the results of a survey in advisory and PR firm Teneo published in its report, Transformation in Numbers: Unpacking GCC Decision Makers’ Priorities and Perspectives (pdf).
Saudi respondents were the most bullish of the lot, with 82% of them expressing positive sentiment on the region’s economic performance in 2024, followed by respondents in the UAE at 74%. Those surveyed in Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar were more bearish in their outlook — albeit still mostly positive — with 53-57% of those surveyed saying they see improved economic performance this year.
Survey methodology: Teneo surveyed 480 individuals it labels as decision makers, 55% of whom are in the private sector and 45% in the public sector. These include CEOs, senior VPs, board chairmen, and other senior and C-suite executives working at companies with sizes ranging between 100 and 5k employees. The majority of companies represented in the survey are sized on the lower end of the spectrum with 500-1k employees.
Oil prices + economic diversification to thank: The results of the survey are broadly more positive than Teneo’s 2024 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey, which reported less than half (47%) of CEOs as having a positive outlook on global macro conditions. “This more positive outlook can arguably be attributed to a resilient set of regional economic drivers, such as continuously high oil and gas prices combined with further economic diversification efforts central to the GCC’s broader and country-specific strategies.”
IN CONTEXT- Saudi + UAE + Bahrain are expected to see GDP growth: The Kingdom is expected to record 1.5% GDP growth this year before accelerating to 5.6% in 2025, Riyad Capital said in its latest forecasts. While Saudi’s GDP outlook is positive, economists expect it will lag behind its GCC peers, with a Reuters poll that predicts a more conservative 1.3% growth clip for the Kingdom also sees the UAE leading the region with 3.7% growth, followed by Bahrain at 2.6%. Meanwhile, Kuwait “faces significant financial challenges” and is expected to record a USD 19.1 bn fiscal deficit in FY 2024-25, while Oman’s diversification plans are more conservative than its larger Gulf peers, reads the report.
Attracting and retaining investments are part and parcel for economic growth, with 88% of overall respondents saying that potential investments will pave the way for long term positive impact. Some 51% of Saudi respondents — and 53% from the wider region — feel that it is more important to adopt sustainable practices to attract international investments, while 50% cite the adoption of investor-friendly tax policies as a priority.
Most respondents expect the GCC will become a “global business and financial epicenter” within the coming 25 years, with 31% touting Saudi as a forthcoming global business and finance center, and 32% predicting that the Kingdom will remain a leading energy supplier.
GCC policymakers are increasingly looking to tech and AI to drive regional growth: 64% of respondents feel that fully transitioning into the technological age will benefit the GCC in the next 25 years, but not without regulations. Some 82% feel that tech and AI regulations will positively impact operations in the Gulf.
REMEMBER- Global tech player Dell has identified Saudi as an upcoming prime location for AI ventures due to its “abundant and inexpensive” energy sources, priming it as a hub to host power-intensive AI training data centers. IBM is also bullish on Saudi’s AI landscape, with some USD 250 mn in planned investments to launch the first MENA software lab in Saudi, it said during Leap 2024 in March.
Cybersecurity is at the top of the list of challenges facing GCC economies, with 25% of respondents placing it as the most difficult challenge facing growth plans in the region, and 23% of respondents feeling that their entities are not equipped to meet these challenges.
REMEMBER- Only 1% of Saudi firms have reached the “mature stage” of overall cybersecurity readiness in 2024, according to a Cisco report out last May.
Although geopolitical instability is ranked 7th overall in terms of challenges, it is the second most pressing concern among respondents when it comes to their firms’ preparedness to face these challenges, with 26% expressing “reservations” that their business could weather geopolitical storms. Inflation was the top issue in terms of challenges with preparedness.
Zooming into the Kingdom: Saudi respondents were split down the middle between those that feel their entities were somewhat prepared for geopolitical tensions, and those that were not prepared, at 36% each. Only 29% thought their entities were “very well prepared.”
Talent acquisition is another area for concern, particularly in the Kingdom, with only 14% of Saudi respondents believing that their entities are equipped to attract top talents domestically. Meanwhile, 57% feel somewhat prepared for talent acquisition and the remaining 29% expressing unpreparedness in this area.
