Good morning, friends, and welcome to a very busy issue to round out the week. Leading our news well this morning is Arabian Mills’ plans to list a 30% stake on Tadawul’s main market, as well as Mawani and Maersk inaugurating their Jeddah Islamic Port logistics park.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The 2024-25 Saudi Pro League (SPL) season kicks off tonight, starting with Al Taawon facing Al Feiha in Buraidah at 7:10pm, followed by Cristiano Ronaldo-led Al Nassr taking on Al Raed at 9pm.

Ronaldo is looking for a better season than last: The footballer scored a record-breaking 35 goals last season, but his team fell 14 points shy of incumbent champions Al Hilal, who will be strengthened by Neymar’s return this season — pointing to a tougher challenge for the Portuguese legend to bag his maiden SPL title, writes the Associated Press. Al Hilal are set to commence their title defense against Al Akhdoud next Saturday at 9pm.

Jeddah-based clubs are also still very much in the mix, with former Manchester City star and five-time English Premier League champion Riyad Mahrez leading the line for Al Ahli, while Al Ittihad added Moussa Diaby to their frontline for EUR 60 mn over the summer, joining the 2022 Ballon d’Or recipient Karim Benzema.

The dearth of high-profile signings is getting more ink: Last year’s GBP 700 mn spending spree brought in big names like Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar, and Karim Benzema, but this summer has seen no comparable major transfers, according to BBC Sports. The pundits chalk this up to economic conditions and changes in the global transfer market, while Saudi clubs are now prioritizing strategic investments and team stability over the high spending of previous seasons.

Fixtures from Matchday 1:

Today:

  • Al Taawoun vs. Al Feiha at 7:10pm;
  • Al Wehda vs. Al Riyadh at 9pm;
  • Al Nassr vs. Al Raed at 9pm.

Tomorrow:

  • Damac vs. Al Khaleej at 7:10pm;
  • Al Ahli vs. Al Orobah at 9pm;
  • Al Qadsiyah vs. Al Fateh at 9pm.

Saturday:

  • Al Kholood vs. Al Ittihad at 7:10pm;
  • Al Akhdoud vs Al Hilal at 9pm;
  • Al Shabab vs. Al Ettifaq at 9pm.

⚠️ WEATHER WARNING- Thunderstorms are still in the cards across the country today the General Directorate of Civil Defense said in a warning on X. Makkah is in for the most severe conditions, including heavy rainfall, flash floods, hail, and sandstorms. Meanwhile, Riyadh, Madinah, Baha, Asir, and Jazan are also forecasted to get varying degrees of rainfall.

PSAs-

#1- Corporate taxpayers need to file July returns by Saturday, 31 August: The Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority has urged businesses with more than SAR 40 mn in turnover to submit their July tax returns by Saturday, 31 August. Failure to meet the deadline could result in penalties ranging from 5-25% of the tax due, according to a statement.

#2- New day, new property registrations: Property owners in four select Madinah neighborhoods will be able to register their properties between Sunday, 29 September and 2 January 2025, the Real Estate General Authority said in a statement. Initial applications can be submitted through the Real Estate Registry online portal, which provides a set of services including deed transfers. Registration requires a valid title deed.

#3- Gem and precious metal appraisers have until 1 July, 2025 to meet membership requirements set by the Saudi Authority for Accredited Valuers (Taqeem), according to state news agency SPA. They must also obtain a professional license from the authority by 1 July, 2026.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- US-Saudi Business Council sings the praises of new foreign investment law: Susan Lindeman, interim president and CEO of the US-Saudi Business Council, lauded the new Saudi foreign investment law in an interview with state news agency SPA. The amended law creates a transparent and accessible environment for investing and addresses several hurdles to investments on both sides, Lindeman said.

REMEMBER- The Cabinet signed off on amendments to the Kingdom’s 25-year-old Investment Law last week, introducing changes designed to attract foreign investment by leveling the playing field between foreign and local investors under a unified set of rules. The move looks to boost the Kingdom’s competitiveness as a destination for FDI as part of a broader strategy to diversify the country’s revenues away from oil.

#2- Dar Global taps Rothschild & Co for expansion plans in KSA and London: London-listed Dar Global, the international branch of Saudi real estate developer Dar Al Arkan, has enlisted US financial advisory giant Rothschild & Co to look at potential acquisitions and joint ventures in Saudi Arabia and London, according to a press release.

ICYMI- Dar Global is currently developing two Trump Towers, one in Jeddah and another in Dubai. The company is also looking into acquiring land in Riyadh. Additionally, Dar Global announced in June plans to invest USD 300 mn in luxury residential developments in New York, Miami, and Los Angeles in the coming months.

#3- The Riyadh Metro is set to open this year, Transport Minister Saleh Al Jasser told Al Arabiya in an interview primarily focused on local logistics projects (watch, runtime: 12:44). The USD 22.5 bn metro is set to be the largest in the world to be executed in a single phase. It will feature six lines and 84 stations, with a total length of 176 km.

DATA POINTS-

PoS transactions in the Kingdom inched up 1.1% w-o-w in the last week to over 204.3 mn, according to Sama’s weekly transaction report (pdf) figures released by the central bank. The transactions’ value logged SAR 13.6 bn, up 3.6% w-o-w.

Which sectors led the increase? The number of PoS transactions for education expenses jumped 59% week-on-week, rising 127.5% in terms of value compared to the week prior, as schools began the new academic year at the beginning of this week. Clothing and footwear transactions also rose 10.9% on a weekly basis, with the value of these PoS transactions rising 7.0% week-on-week. Other segments pushing up the index include recreation and culture (+13.2%), public utilities (+4.1%), and gas stations (+2.7%).

Riyadh continued to lead the pack as the city with the largest share of PoS transactions across the Kingdom, accounting for nearly 36% (SAR 4.6 bn) of point of sale transactions across the country in terms of value. Jeddah follows with 14.5% of the week’s market share by value.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Goldman Sachs revises down forecasts for Brent crude prices: Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to drop to USD 68 per barrel by late 2025 if China’s oil demand remains stagnant through next year, Reuters reports citing a note from the investment bank. This is down from a previous estimate of USD 75-90 / bbl. Currently, Brent futures are trading around USD 77 / bbl, while US WTI crude is at approximately USD 74.16.

“We conclude that the road fuel shift from oil to power (via electric vehicles) and liquefied natural gas explains the bulk of slowdown in China demand growth,” Goldman said. The investment bank estimates a significant reduction in China’s y-o-y oil demand growth to 0.2 mn bbl / d in 1H 2024, with a decline expected to continue through the summer. Recent data show China’s economy slowing, with declining home prices, reduced industrial output, and rising unemployment contributing to the reduced demand, the newswire writes.

#2- Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer is upbeat about natural gas demand well beyond 2050, despite the global push towards net-zero emissions by mid-century. Santos’ CEO, Kevin Gallagher, told Bloomberg “We see demand for gas — LNG in particular — remaining very strong beyond 2050.” The company plans to ramp up its production capacity by 50% by 2030.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Ahead of Jackson Hole meeting, Fed minutes show September rate hike are all the more likely: The “vast majority” of policymakers at the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting in July agreed “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the [Reserve’s] next meeting,” provided inflation and employment data remain “encouraging,” according to the meeting minutes pdf.

The Fed officials agreed inflation is “moving sustainably towards” the target of 2%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on inflation figures in the months ahead, the minutes showed. Although some officials said there was room to enact the first round of cuts at last month’s meeting, they unanimously agreed to leave rates unchanged.

The minutes were published ahead of an annual gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, where US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is scheduled to speak on the country’s economic outlook tomorrow. The data provide further impetus for Powell to make the case that kicking off a monetary easing cycle is unlikely to push rates back up, particularly as the Fed now grapples with the need to mitigate the risks of recession.

Markets have already priced in September rate cuts, with the majority expecting a 25 bps reduction next month, while futures have priced in a total of 100 bps of easing through the end of 2024. The story is broadly leading headlines in the international business press this morning: (Bloomberg | CNBC | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal)

OVER IN CHICAGO- Kamala Harris’ running mate and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is set to take the stage at the Democratic National Convention, marking his first high-profile national speech. Also speaking at the convention overnight: Former US President Bill Clinton and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (New York Times | Washington Post | Politico | Bloomberg | Reuters)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The five–day Tourism Week organized by Monsha’at will get underway next Sunday, 25 August, at the Enterprise Support Centers in Riyadh, Jeddah, Al Khobar, and Madinah. You can check out the agenda here, and register here.

The EFG Hermes London Conference returns: EFG Hermes will hold its annual conference in London on 9-12 September, giving investors “unique and unparalleled access to leading equities in MENA and key frontier emerging markets.”

The Crown Prince Camel Festival runs until Tuesday, 10 September at the Taif Camel Racing Track, featuring 610 rounds of racing and a purse of SAR 56 mn.

The New Global Sport Conference 2024 is happening on Saturday and Sunday, 24-25August, bringing together top figures from sports, esports, gaming, entertainment, and technology. This year’s theme is the Future of Fandom, highlighting fans’ role in building brand equity and revenue.

The eight-week Esports World Cup runs until Sunday, 25 August Riyadh’s Boulevard City. The world’s top esports clubs are competing for a pool of USD 60 mn — the largest purse in esports.

The two-day Data Center Xpo summit will kick off in Riyadh on Tuesday, 3 September.

The two-day Kingdom Business and Luxury Travel Congress will kick off on Wednesday, 25 September, at the Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel and Convention.

The three-day Global Logistics Forum will kick off on Saturday, 12 October at Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District.

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