Good morning, friends. It’s the last Thursday on which we’ll do business in July. We hope the month has been kind to you — and that you’ve planned a little bit of time off for next month before fall starts with a roar.

We have a real-estate heavy issue for you this morning, plus news that new laws are in the works on commercial registers, trade names, consumer protection, and commercial transactions. But perhaps the most interesting story in business right now is Wall Street’s sudden realization that traders may have overhyped the commercial viability of AI (or at least how quickly the massive investment in the technology might start paying off).

Remember: Humans have a remarkable ability to overestimate how much a new technology will drive change in the short term — and to underestimate that same technology’s long-term impact.

^^ We have all of this and more below.

BUT FIRST- Turkey’s central bank has returned a USD 5 bn Saudi deposit as it looks to lower its foreign liabilities, it said in a statement (pdf). It returned the deposit fro the Saudi Fund for Development “by mutual agreement,” according to the statement. Analysts told Bloomberg that the move signaled a “sign of confidence” on the part of the Turkish central bank. “Turkey is moving to a much better underlying position with net reserves now positive,” Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said. The news also got ink from the Financial Times. Saudi made the deposit in 2023 to help Turkey shore up its reserves.

AND- The Foreign Ministry welcomed an agreement between the Yemeni government and Houthis that will resolve tensions over control of key economic infrastructure, saying it supports efforts for peace and security in the neighboring country, according to a statement. The agreement, brokered by Riyadh, brings an end to a fight for control between the two sides over the country’s banks and national airline Yemenia. The statement offered no detail about how the struggle had been resolved.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Commerce Ministry has four new laws in the works: The Cabinet’s Bureau of Experts is currently reviewing four draft laws submitted by the Commerce Ministry that would impact consumer protection, commercial transactions, commercial registers, and trade names, Deputy Commerce Minister for Policy and Regulatory Affairs Maher Al Saeed was quoted as saying by local media (here and here).

Details a so-far scant, but here’s the rundown of what to expect:

  • The law on the commercial register aims to centralize the registration system, making it easier for businesses to expand nationally;
  • Officials want to make it easier to apply for trade names, offer more flexibility in the choice of names — by permitting the use of numbers and foreign languages — and detect look-alike names more efficiently;
  • The consumer protection law would integrate international best practices and guidelines, improve transparency on product information, and regulate disputes between consumers and sellers;
  • The law on commercial transactions aims to improve the regulation of contracts, negotiable instruments, and accounting records.

#2- Saudi’s temporary ban on poultry imports from Brazil will have a limited impact on the local market, Aleqtisadiah reported, citing the Federation of Saudi Chambers. The federation played down the effect of the ban on the market, imposed because of virulent diseases in poultry, saying domestic production accounts for 70% of the market’s total needs.

BACKGROUND- The ban comes after reported cases of Newcastle virus in a poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul earlier this week. The outbreak saw Brazil — the world’s top chicken exporter — stop sales to the EU and Argentina, according to Bloomberg.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Finance Minister Mohamed Al Jadaan will lead Saudi’s delegation to a G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Rio de Janeiro, according to a ministry statement. He will be accompanied by Saudi Central Bank Sama Governor Ayman Al Sayari and senior officials from the ministry and Sama.

WEATHER- Expect gusts of wind in Riyadh with daytime high of 44°C and a nighttime low of 31°C. The skies are clear in Makkah, where the mercury will peak at 43°C during the day before dropping to 30°C at night. Meanwhile, Jeddah will see a high of 41°C and an overnight low of 32°C.

PSAs-

Today is the last day to register for the PIF’s Accelerated Manufacturing Program. The program offers would-be manufacturers training in business, product development, and production management, as well as personalized mentorship and coaching sessions.

DATA POINTS-

A better ranking for the Saudi passport this year: The Saudi passport ranked 56th globally in 2024 with visa-free entry to 88 countries, up from a ranking of 65th last year, according to the Henley Passport Index 2024 (pdf). The UAE passport ranked first regionally and ninth globally with visa-free access to 185 countries, followed by the Qatari and Kuwaiti passports. The world’s strongest passport is Singapore’s with a 195 visa-free entry score, while Afghanistan ranks at the bottom with only 26 visa-free entries.

SPORTS-

Riyadh Season has partnered with two boxing promoters to expand its boxing events globally, building on its first foray into the US with the Los Angeles Riyadh Season Card featuring Crawford vs Madrimov on Saturday, 3 August at the Los Angeles BMO Stadium.

Riyadh Season + Top Rank: The partnership will see Riyadh Season sponsoring 12 events by Las Vegas-based boxing promotional firm Top Rank between now and the end of 2025, according to a statement. Top Rank has organized events for big names such as Muhammad Ali, George Foreman, Sugar Ray Leonard, Oscar De La Hoya, and Manny Pacquiao.

And another with Golden Boy Promotions: This collaboration will kick off with a showdown between current interim champion Serhii Bohachuk and the undefeated Vergil Ortiz Jr. in the Interim WBC Super Welterweight World Championship, according to a separate press release. The fight will take place on Saturday, 10 August at Michelob Ultra Arena at Mandalay Bay Resort in Las Vegas. Golden Boy is owned by ten-time world champion Oscar De La Hoya.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The foreign business press is focused squarely on the Nasdaq’s worst day since 2022. The index saw some USD 1 tn in outflows as Big Tech stocks, including Tesla and Alphabet, plunged, Bloomberg reports, saying the rout was the result of doubts about potential returns on costly investments in AI. The trigger: massive spending on the still commercially unproven technology made clear by Alphabet’s earnings.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 3% at close, while the Dow was off 1.3% and the S&P 500 fell 2.3%.

Concerns that AI’s commercial hype may be overblown have grown louder as companies continue to spend big on AI infrastructure with little financial payoff, some pundits say.

Expect plenty of quarterly results from tech players next week: Microsoft is due out on Tuesday, followed by Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Nvidia will be the final one to report on 28 August.

MEANWHILE- Ether ETFs attracted inflows of USD 108 mn on the first day they went live, the Financial Times reports.

PLUS- Crowdstrike blamed the global tech outage on Friday on a bug in the test software it uses to validate content updates, according to a blog post yesterday.

Over in the world of politics, US President Joe Biden delivered a speech explaining his decision to withdraw from the presidential race, saying he is ready to “pass the torch” to the next generation as he continues his “defense of democracy.” CNN has the story, or you can catch it here on the White House’s Youtube channel (watch, runtime: 11:02).

AND- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the US Congress last night, doubling down on his justification for Israel’s war on Gaza. Though Netanyahu received copious applause, particularly from the red side of the aisle, dozens of Congress Democrats did not attend, including Vice President and projected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. She is set to meet Netanyahu today.

US officials are saying ceasefire negotiations are “in closing stages,” with Reuters reporting that Netanyahu and Biden are set to iron out the gaps today. How many times have we heard that in the past six months?

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Crawford vs Madrimov boxing showdown will take place on Saturday, 3 August at the Los Angeles BMO Stadium. The event is the highlight of the Los Angeles Riyadh Season Card which features five other bouts. You can check them out here.

Aramco is set to release its 1H 2024 results on Tuesday, 6 August, according to its website. You can tune into the audio webcast of its earnings call here. The oil giant’s net income dipped a bit more than 14% in 1Q 2024 to SAR 102.3 bn.

Cybersecurity training event SANS Riyadh Cyber Leaders August 2024 will run from Sunday, 18 August to Thursday, 22 August at the Hyatt Regency Riyadh Olaya.

The eight-week Esports World Cup runs until Sunday, 25 August Riyadh’s Boulevard City. The world’s top esports clubs are competing for a pool of USD 60 mn — the largest purse in esports.

The two-day Middle East LPG Expo – Saudi Arabia 2024 will open on Tuesday, 10 September, bringing together upwards of 4k liquified petroleum gas (LPG) experts to discuss the future of the fuel gas in clean energy. Saudi accounts for 50% of demand for LPF in the Middle East and Africa.

The TotalEnergies CAF Super Cup Final 2024 between Egyptian rivals Al Ahly and Zamalek will be held in Riyadh on Friday, 27 September. The venue and kick-off time of the match will be announced at a later date.

This year’s edition of security-focused expo Intersec Saudi Arabia will run from Tuesday, 1 October to Thursday, 3 October at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center.

International food and beverage expo InFlavour is returning to Riyadh on Tuesday, 1 October. The three-day event — which will be organized in collaboration with the Environment, Water and Agriculture Minister, Tahaluf, Pepsico, Al Rabie, Arasco and Nadec — will take place in Riyadh’s Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

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