Good morning, friends, and welcome to a busy Monday. We lead our news well this morning with the latest from the Global Logistics Forum, which saw a slew of agreements worth some SAR 17 bn signed on its first day.

WEATHER– Riyadh is looking at a high of 38°C, and a low of 2°C today. Over in Madinah, the temperature will peak at 39°C, before dropping to 2°C. Meanwhile, Jeddah will see a high of 37°C, and a low of 28°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Construction on the USD 7 bn Landbridge megaproject is expected to kick off in early 2025, with the final cost and financing arrangements being ironed out, Meed reports, citing a source it says is close to the project. The project, slated for completion in seven years, will connect the Kingdom’s Red Sea coast to the Arabian Gulf and features six railway lines, and seven logistics centers.

Background: The Saudi Railway Company awarded a consortium that includes US-based construction management firm Hill International, Italy-based consulting firm Italferr, and Spain-based engineering firm Sener the contract to manage the construction of the project back in December 2023.

#2- CAPITAL MARKETS- Nomu-listed Shatirah House Restaurant Co., the owner and operator of burger chain Burgerizzr, received the green light from Tadawul to transition to the main market, according to a statement. The company filed for the upgrade in November 2023, but soon it decided to put it on hold after failing to round off some regulatory requirements.

It’s been a long time coming: Burgerizzr arranged for Mohamed Al Ruwaigh, a founder and major shareholder, to divest last year a 0.84% stake to make certain the popular burger chain could meet the liquidity requirement for an upgrade to the main market.

#3- Delayed launch for Riyadh Metro? The Riyadh Metro is reportedly set to go live early next year, instead of this month, Aleqtisadiah reports, citing sources it says are in the know. Maher Shira, director general of the Smart City Department for the Royal Commission of Riyadh, told the same outlet in February that the USD 22.5 bn metro system was slated to start operations this year. Transport Minister Saleh Al Jasser had also confirmed to Al Arabiya in August that the USD 22.5 bn metro is on track for a 2024 launch.

#5- The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is set to kick off free trade talks with Japan next month, after the two parties agreed on terms of reference, Aleqtisadiah reports, citing the GCC secretariat. Terms of reference have also been agreed with Malaysia, but talks are still pending the Malaysian government’s approval to kick off.

#6- AlBaik to tap into Pakistan: Homegrown food chain AlBaik signed an MoU with energy firm Gas & Oil Pakistan Limited (Go) to launch AlBaik restaurants in Pakistan, according to a LinkedIn post from Go. This comes after Pakistani and Saudi businesses signed over USD 2 bn in agreements; read our coverage here.

DATA POINTS-

Saudi Arabia’s FDI inflows went up 5.8% y-o-y at the end of 2Q 2024 to SAR 829.4 bn, Mubasher reports, citing data from the Saudi Central Bank.

OIL WATCH-

A look into BMI’s crystal ball for how regional tensions could impact oil prices: BMI outlined three potential oil price scenarios depending on how rising regional tension between Israel and Iran plays out, ranging from USD 70-150 per barrel.

In the baseline scenario (50% probability), prices are expected to hover between USD 75-90, with occasional spikes above USD 90, assuming regional tensions between Israel and Iran escalate but later de-escalate through diplomatic efforts.

A less volatile scenario (28% probability) projects prices dipping to USD 70-75 / bbl, with the conflict contained and demand weakening, posing challenges to Saudi efforts to balance its budget.

In the worst-case scenario (22% probability), a full-scale war could push prices to USD 120-150 / bbl, boosting Saudi revenues but causing global inflation and suppressing demand.

REMEMBER– The IMF’s latest forecast from April projects Saudi Arabia’s breakeven oil price for 2024 at USD 96.2 / bbl — roughly 19% higher than last year and well above the current Brent crude of USD 79 / bbl.

SPORTS-

Meet the first undisputed light heavyweight champion in over 20 years: Russian Artur Beterbiev edged out compatriot Dmitry Bivol by a points decision yesterday at Riyadh Season, unifying the WBA, WBC, and IBF belts for the first time since US champion Roy Jones Jr did it in 1999. However, Turki Alalshikh told The Stomping Ground he doesn’t “think the the result is fair,” saying that Bivol added two more rounds than he was given credit for and that there might be a rematch between the two boxers (watch, runtime: 0:25). The story got ink from AP | BBC | Reuters.

Also from Riyadh Season: Skye Nicolson beat Raven Chapman, while Fabio Wardley warded off Frazer Clarke.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a quiet morning on global business front pages, but that should change as the week grinds on.

Is Trump just horsing around about allowing the greenback to weaken? A top Trump economic advisor says The Donald is merely posturing about weakening the USD and turning away from global trade. Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, who some pundits think could be the Republican’s pick for Treasury Secretary, made the remarks in a conversation with the Financial Times, telling the salmon-colored paper that Trump wants the greenback to “remain the world’s reserve currency” and that he’s using the threat of tariffs “as a negotiating tactic.”

In security news: The US has sent Israel advanced anti-missile systems and 100 troops to ru

n them as tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran continue to boil. In Asia, China has begun large military exercises around Taiwan — the war games come as observers spell out worries that disruptions to busy South China Seas shipping lanes could further snarl global shipping.

MORNING MUST READ- One of the world’s top AI researchers thinks “AI is as dumb as a cat” — that current models are “far from rivaling the intelligence of our pets, let alone us.” Christopher Mims’ sit-down with the Meta researcher offers a broad and reasonably balanced view on the state of the art (and hysteria) about artificial intelligence.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Global accounting giant EY is blaming a slump in private equity and M&A activity for its decision to delay “start dates for new graduates hired for its elite strategy adviser Parthenon” in the United States.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK internationally:

  • International Monetary Fund boss Kristalina Georgieva will speak this coming Thursday on the global economy and her organization’s priorities ahead of next week’s World Bank and IMF General Meetings, which formally get underway a week from today.
  • Interest rate watchers will keep a close eye on consumer inflation data from India (today), Canada (tomorrow), the UK (Wednesday), and Japan (Friday);
  • Turkey’s central bank will meet on Thursday to set interest rates. Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia do the same on Wednesday.
  • Earnings season continues, with major institutions set to report this week including Ashmore, Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Netflix, and Schlumberger.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The three-day 6 Kings Slam event at Riyadh’s Venue kicks off this Wednesday, 16 October, featuring all-star players competing for the largest purse in tennis history. The matches will see face offs between tennis champs Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Holger Rune (watch, runtime: 5:15). The final and third-place match will be held on Saturday, 19 October. Book your tickets here.

The Professional Fighters League’s (PFL) Battle of the Giants is coming to Riyadh on Saturday, 19 October. Headlining the card, MMA superstar Francis Ngannou will face PFL heavyweight champion Renan Ferreira for the title of inaugural PFL Super Champion. Meanwhile, women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg will square off against Larissa Pachecho for the World Title Fight in the co-main event. Expect fireworks with additional matchups featuring Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards and A.J. McKee vs. Paul Hughes.

The three-day Seamless Saudi Arabia will take place at the Riyadh Front Center on Tuesday, 22 October. Business leaders and entrepreneurs from around the world will gather to discuss the latest trends shaping the digital commerce and fintech sectors. Notable speakers include representatives from the World Economic Forum, our friends at Cenomi, as well as Al Rajhi Bank, Riyad Bank, and Saudi Awwal Bank, among others.

The two-day Multilateral Industrial Policy Forum will kick off in Riyadh on Wednesday, 23 October. The forum will address global industrial challenges, focusing on topics like industrial policy, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing tech. The forum is organized by The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry in partnership with UNIDO. The Kingdom will also host the UNIDO General Conference in 2025.

The four-day Biban24 Forum organized by Monsha’at will run from Tuesday, 5 November to Saturday 9 November in Riyadh. It will feature over 250 speakers and 1.4k exhibitors, focusing on supporting the growth and competitiveness of SMEs, as well as promoting entrepreneurship in the Kingdom. Biban24 will also host the Entrepreneurship World Cup finals, offer 420 workshops, and focus on key sectors like e-commerce and financing.

Cityscape Global will land in Riyadh’s International Convention and Exhibition Center on 11-14 November. With over 400 exhibitors, 500 speakers, and 7 conferences, the real estate event is stretching its scope this year with additional sectors like sustainable smart buildings, stadiums, attractions, and smart cities. Backed by the Municipalities and Housing Ministry, the event will also bring the Saudi sports infrastructure boom to the forefront, including newly-announced stadiums.

The Saudi Intermobility Expo 2024 will take place on 11-13 November at the Jeddah International Exhibition and Convention Center. As the largest transportation event in the MENA region, it will host over 7k decision-makers from 30 countries, highlighting the latest developments in smart sustainable mobility, infrastructure, and urban planning.

The Saudi General Aviation Airshow Sand & Fun 2024 will run from Tuesday, 19 November to Saturday 23 at Al Thumamah Airport, Riyadh. Organized by the Saudi Aviation Club, the event will feature 100+ exhibitors and 15 airshow teams, with over 100k visitors expected. Sand & Fun is a key platform for exploring aviation tech, fostering partnerships, and driving industry growth.

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