Good morning, friends, and welcome to a busy and macro-heavy news day. Leading our news well this morning is the government’s pre-budget statement for 2025, which sees the budget deficit narrowing next year while GDP growth is expected to rebound.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Opec+’s joint ministerial monitoring committee is expected to leave its oil output policy unchanged when it meets at 3pm KSA today, Reuters reports, citing five unnamed sources from the group. The expectation that the group is likely to stick to its current output policy, which includes plans to phase out the voluntary production cuts starting December, comes despite oil prices falling below USD 70 / bbl for the first time in three years.

#2- The Sirha Arabia Food Trade Exhibition is on its second day today and will wrap tomorrow at Riyadh Front Expo. The event will showcase 300 exhibitors from the food products and equipment, bakery, pastry, and coffee industries. Sirha Arabia will also be hosting selection contests for the Bocuse d’Or and the Pastry World Cup, which start in 2025.

#3- Intersec Saudi Arabia is also on its second and penultimate day, with experts in the security, safety and fire protection industries convening to address the role of AI and VR in the sector.

WEATHER- Sun’s out: Riyadh is looking at a daytime high of 41°C and a nighttime low of 28°C today. Over in Makkah, the temperature will peak at 42°C before dropping to 27°C. Meanwhile, Jeddah — the coolest of three — will see a high of 36°C and a low of 28°C.

PSA-

Property owners in six Medina neighborhoods will have until tomorrow to register their units, the Real Estate General Authority said in a statement. The areas include parts of King Fahd, Al Aqoul, Jama Umm Khalid, Sikkat Al Hadid, Al Khadra, and Abyar Al Mashi. Property owners must register through the real estate registry platform before the deadline to avoid fines.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- CMA gives the all-clear for two Tadawul IPOs: Saudi healthcare provider Almoosa Health has lined up approval from the Capital Market Authority (CMA) to proceed with an IPO that will see the firm offer 13.3 mn shares representing a 30% stake, according to a CMA statement. A prospectus for the offering is yet to be published. The regulator also gave Arabian Company Agriculture and Industrial Investments (Entaj) the green light to offer a 30% stake (9 mn share) in an IPO, according to another statement.

…and two Nomu debuts: The capital market regulator approved Hedab Alkhaleej Trading’s offering of a 10.7% stake (800k shares) on parallel market Nomu, according to a statement. The CMA also approved a request by Lamasat to offer a 7.4% stake (6 mn shares) on Nomu, it said in a separate statement.

REMEMBER- The regulator’s approval for an IPO offering is valid for six months, with additional information to be provided pending the publication of each offering’s prospectus.

#3- Carbon trading market to launch next month: Saudi is planning to launch a voluntary carbon market exchange in November, CEO of PIF’s Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Company (RVCMC) Riham ElGizy told Asharq Business on the sidelines of the Portfolio Egypt conference earlier this week. The launch will feature the company’s largest auction to date, with carbon credits ranging between USD 2.5-3 mn tons.

Who will participate? Regional and Saudi companies, including Aramco and Sabic, will participate in the auction, said ElGizy.

REMEMBER- RVCMC has long been preparing for the Saudi carbon market: RVCMC hired global ESG commodities exchange platform Xpansiv in April to provide a tech base for the carbon credit exchange. The company also signed two MoUs with Kenya’s main dry cell battery maker Eveready East Africa and Carbon Vista Nigeria to set up high-quality and impactful carbon projects in the two countries last year.

#3- InterContinental Hotel Group (IHG) plans to expand its Saudi team by adding 6k new employees as part of its regional expansion strategy, the group’s Regional Managing Director Haitham Mattar was quoted as saying by Gulf News. The group currently employs 30k people across the Middle East, Africa, and India.

The group expects to have 22 new hotels open by the end of this year, bringing IHG’s hotel portfolio in the region to around 220. Meanwhile next year, the group plans to open 19 new hotels, with 2026 expected to “be the biggest in terms of new hotel openings,” Mattar said.

#4- Azerbaijan is looking to establish a joint sovereign investment fund with Saudi Arabia to boost investment in priority sectors in both countries, Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikail Jabbarov told Federation of Saudi Chambers (FSC) Chairman Hassan bin Moajab Al Huwaizi, state news agency SPA reports. Jabbarov discussed the idea with Al Huwaizi during his visit to Azerbaijan at the head of an FSC trade mission.

The potential investment areas: Officials discussed channeling Saudi investments towards Azerbaijan’s energy, renewables, manufacturing, tourism, infrastructure, livestock, agriculture, and mining sectors, while also facilitating Azerbaijani companies’ involvement in infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia and exports of foodstuffs to the Kingdom. Incentives for Saudi investors at Azerbaijan’s freezones were also on the agenda.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) rose 2.4% week-on-week, with turnover of SAR 27.4 bn by the end of last week, according to a weekly report from the exchange.

Al Rajhi was the most traded in terms of value at SAR 1.162 bn despite falling 0.3% WTD, followed closely by Red Sea International (SAR 1.16 bn in trades), which saw its shares increase 19.9%. Saudi Fisheries edged out Aramco for third spot at SAR 1.1 bn, with its shares rising 21.9% — the largest increase seen during the week.

Deep dive: Saudi individual investors traded on turnover of 32.7 bn, while turnover for Saudi institutional investors came in at SAR 6.3 bn. Meanwhile, qualified foreign investors traded on turnover of 13.2 bn , and GCC institutional investors traded on turnover of 799.8 mn, according to Tadawul’s weekly stock market ownership and trading activity report (pdf).

#2- The Saudi Central Bank’s (Sama) net foreign assets rose 9.6% y-o-y in August to SAR 1.67 tn, according to Sama’s monthly bulletin (pdf). Meanwhile, net foreign assets at commercial banks fell to negative SAR 19.70 bn from SAR 66.63 bn.

#3- Consumer spending in Saudi Arabia rose 5% y-o-y to SAR 120.9 bn in August 2024, Argaam reports.

#3- Ejar logs over 10 mn rental contracts since launch: Ejar, a rental platform developed by the General Authority for Real Estate, has registered over 10 mn rental contracts across the Kingdom since its launch in 2018, with a daily rate of 19k contracts, the authority said in a statement. Residential contracts accounted for 82.3%, or 8.3 mn, of the total contracts, while commercial contracts made up the remaining 17.6%, or 1.7 mn.

The platform registered over 1.5 mn contracts in the year-to-date, 1.2 mn of which were residential rental contracts.

#5- Marine fisheries recorded a total catch of 74.7k tons in 2023, up 16.2% y-o-y, while aquaculture production reached 139.9k tons, a 56.3% increase since 2021, according to the Marine Fishery and Aquaculture report (pdf).

Saltwater farms produced 92.5k tons of fish, while inland water farms produced 47.5k tons. Geographically, the Arabian Gulf accounted for 47k tons of the marine fishing total, and the Red Sea contributed 27.7k of the marine catch. Shrimp production led with over 66.5k tons, followed by Nile tilapia (45.2k tons), and sea bass (13.1k tons).

OIL WATCH-

The oil market is stable, and we have OPEC+ policy to thank for it: Despite growing regional tensions and macro headwinds, the global oil market has remained stable, “with fluctuations within expected bounds,” due to OPEC’s decision to pump below full capacity, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak tells Alarabiya in an interview (watch: runtime: 22:30).

In his words: “We don’t see extreme volatility. The market is generally stable now,” Novak said, adding that any market change would still align with the group’s policy. “This agreement allows us to manage the volatility.”

Long-term demand is in the cards, with no peak in sight: Novak sees global demand for oil on the up through to 2050. “We expect oil demand to increase by 20 mn bbl / d over the next 25 years,” he stated, adding that the boom will be driven by increased energy consumption from emerging technologies and the ongoing global push for electrification.

IN CONTEXT- OPEC’s crude production took a major hit in September, dropping by 480 bbl / d to 26.62 mn bbl, as political turmoil in Libya cut the member country’s output by 38%, according to a Bloomberg survey. Libya’s disruptions provided unintended support for the broader bloc, which has been working to limit production to prop up oil prices. The cartel is due to convene today to decide on its oil strategy moving forward.

SPORTS-

#1- Brazilian forward Neymar has returned to full training after nearly a year of recovery from injuries which he sustained in October 2023, just two months after his joining Al Hilal, according to the Saudi Gazette. While Neymar resumed individual training in July, he has not yet been registered for the local league but is included in the AFC Champions League squad.

#2- Cristiano Ronaldo and Sadio Mane scored two goals for Al Nassr in the AFC Champions League Elite group stage, defeating Qatar’s Al Rayyan 2-1 victory and taking his club to 4th place in the group standings with 11 points, AP reports.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Iran fired some 200 missiles at Israel last night in a massive escalation of regional violence, with the Israeli army saying it has intercepted most missiles and reporting one dead in the West Bank. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack was a “big mistake” and vowed retaliation during the opening meeting of his security cabinet yesterday, with the US promising to support Israel in its retaliation, Bloomberg reports.

Iranian Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araqchi said Iran’s attacks were “finished,” unless Israel retaliates, in which case their response will be “stronger and more powerful” on X a few hours ago.

Market reax: Oil prices surged 5% following the attacks, with Brent settling at USD 73.56 per barrel, and several indices on Wall Street and in the region ending lower.

The Iranian attack is getting plenty of play: Reuters | AP | CNN | BBC.

US elections are also back on front pages as the country gears up for the first and only vice presidential debate between Kamala Harris’ VP Tim Walz and Donald Trump’s pick, JD Vance, later today.

IN OTHER US NEWS- East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers’ kicked off their biggest strike in 50 years after negotiations for a new labor contract broke down, halting nearly half of the country’s shipping and potentially costing bns of USD in damages. (CNBC | Reuters)

Also causing plenty of damage: Hurricane Helene, which has killed at least 130 people across six states, with analysts estimating more than USD 30 bn in damages so far. (Semafor)

AND IN TECH NEWS-

  • OpenAI launched a slew of new tools, including one that will make it easier for developers to build AI voice applications, and another that will improve responses generated using images and text, as the company shifts its focus to agent systems, (Reuters | FT)
  • Apple is preparing to unveil a new version of its budget iPhone, iPhone SE, alongside new iPad Air models and new keyboards. (Bloomberg)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The 2024 Saudi Games are coming back tomorrow at Riyadh’s Boulevard City, with musical performances from The Saudi Arwa and Abdulwahab kicking off the annual sporting competition, according to a post on X. The event will see upwards of 9k male and female athletes compete in 52 sports. The two-week event runs from until 17 October. You can grab tickets here.

The three-day 6 Kings Slam event at Riyadh’s Venue kicks off on Wednesday, 16 October, featuring all-star players competing for the largest purse in tennis history. The matches will see face offs between tennis champs Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Holger Rune (watch, runtime: 5:15). The final and third-place match will be held on Saturday, 19 October. Book your tickets here.

The Professional Fighters League’s (PFL) Battle of the Giants is coming to Riyadh on Saturday, 19 October. Headlining the card, MMA superstar Francis Ngannou will face PFL heavyweight champion Renan Ferreira for the title of inaugural PFL Super Champion. Meanwhile, women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg will square off against Larissa Pachecho for the World Title Fight in the co-main event. Expect fireworks with additional matchups featuring Johnny Eblen vs. Fabian Edwards and A.J. McKee vs. Paul Hughes.

The two-day Multilateral Industrial Policy Forum will kick off in Riyadh on Wednesday, 23 October. The forum will address global industrial challenges, focusing on topics like industrial policy, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing tech. The forum is organized by The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry in partnership with UNIDO. The Kingdom will also host the UNIDO General Conference in 2025.

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