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Analysts, fund managers no longer expect a US recession this year: Only a quarter of analysts and forecasters think the US is, already in, or will fall into a recession in 2024, according to an National Association for Business Economics survey (pdf). The survey found that 22% of those surveyed see a recession happening in 2025, while 36% see this happening in 2026 or later.
But inflation forecasts aren’t as rosy: Two thirds believe it is likely or very likely that the US will end the year with inflation still above 2.5% — 20% above the Fed’s target for the year.
Analysts are losing sleep over China’s economy, Israel’s war on Gaza, and the US elections: A commanding 97% of those surveyed thought there was a moderate to high probability that instability in the Middle East could adversely impact the economy by disrupting global supply chains and pushing Brent crude above USD 90 a barrel. Similarly concerning to analysts and forecasters was instability around the US elections, which 85% saw having a moderate to high probability of having a negative effect on the economy. China’s stagnant economy also had 90% of respondents worrying about its effect on the US economy.
ALSO WORTH NOTING- Bezos sells more Amazon shares: Multi b’naire Jeff Bezos has offloaded USD 4 bn worth of his shares in online shopping giant Amazon since Friday as part of a plan to sell 50 mn shares throughout the year — currently worth USD 8.4 bn. (BBC)
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TASI |
12,438.77 |
+0.3% (YTD: +3.9%) |
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MSCI Tadawul 30 |
1,604.27 |
-0.04% (YTD: +3.5%) |
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USD : SAR (SAMA) |
3.75 Sell |
3.75 Buy |
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Interest rates |
6% repo |
5.5% reverse repo |
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EGX30 |
28,874.99 |
+1% (YTD: +16%) |
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ADX |
9,395.03 |
+0.5% (YTD: -1.9%) |
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DFM |
4,223.48 |
+0.1% (YTD: +4%) |
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S&P 500 |
5,000.62 |
+1.0% (YTD: +4.8%) |
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FTSE 100 |
7,568.40 |
+0.8% (YTD: -2.1%) |
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Euro Stoxx 50 |
4,709.22 |
+0.4% (YTD: +4.2%) |
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Brent crude |
81.47 |
-1.6% |
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Natural gas (Nymex) |
1.61 |
-4.6% |
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Gold |
2,002.80 |
-0.2% |
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BTC |
51,823.82 |
+4.8% (YTD: +120.3%) |
THE CLOSING BELL-
The TASI rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 10.3 bn. The index is up 3.9% YTD.
In the green: Nama Chemicals (+10%), Atheeb Telecom (+10%) and Ayyan(+10%).
In the red: Chubb (-8.6%), Chemanol (-6.8%) and Albaha (-6.7%).
Asian markets are comfortably in the green in early trading this morning as they start clawing back yesterday’s losses. Europe is looking to open in the green, while US stock futures were essentially flat at dispatch time this morning as Wall Street to build on yesterday’s modest rebound.
CORPORATE ACTIONS-
#1- Shareholders of Takween Advanced Industries Co. approved a 66% capital increase to SAR 765 mn through a rights offering, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday.
#2- Chemanol’s BoD has proposed to the shareholders a rights issuance worth SAR 675 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. It plans to use the proceeds to fund its growth.
#3- Asharqiyah Development BoD has approved the establishment of an investment arm that will be active in the food logistics industry, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The company aims to diversify its activities and own companies with rewarding returns and quick liquidity.
AND-Sipchem stopped operations at its Al-Waha plant yesterday for scheduled maintenance work, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Operations should resume in about four weeks, it said, adding that the financial impact of the scheduled maintenance work will depend on the duration of suspension and average sales prices.
