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Flooding is twice as likely thanks to climate change in Europe: Climate change has doubled the likelihood of intense downpours like those that caused devastating floods in central Europe earlier in September, according to a recent report by World Weather Attribution (WWA). The floods, the worst in the region’s recorded history, have battered the region, leaving 24 fatalities and widespread destruction across Poland, Czechia, Austria, Romania, Hungary, Germany, and Slovakia.
A silver lining? While the event is the worst that the region has seen to date, Europe’s investment in early warning systems and improved forecasting has improved the continent’s response, according to WWA. Though severe, these floods had a significantly lower death toll compared to the region’s most recent major floods of 2021, which left over 200 people dead. Still more needs to be done to limit casualties.
The rest of the world is also at high risk: “Catastrophic rainfall” is in line with predictions as global temperatures rise, Joyce Kimutai from Imperial College London’s Grantham told the Guardian. In a low emissions scenario, the global rate of both coastal flooding and flooding by rainfall are predicted to increase by 99% and 6%, respectively by 2100. In a high emissions scenario, rainfall flooding could increase by as much as 44% by the end of the century. At the same time, the average flood hazard level is forecast to rise by between 9% to 49% in the same period, depending on the emissions scenario. The largest future increases in flooding are forecast to be around the world’s coastlines including North Africa, as well as in Africa and Asia where rainfall-induced floods are more common.
MENA is really feeling the effects: Scientists found that climate change, which causes warm air to hold more moisture and can lead to heavier rainfall, was the culprit behind the recent severe floods in the UAE, in which a year’s worth of rain fell over the country in one day. Morocco was hit by rare and deadly torrential rains in early September, leading to the deaths of 18 people.
Morocco’s growing vulnerability from droughts and floods are exacerbating risks to its economy and banking sector, a World Bank report (pdf) warns. Pluvial flooding could cause GDP losses ranging from USD 9 bn to USD 10.8 bn by 2050 depending on its severity. Floods can further impact the banking sector by decreasing the value of assets like properties and mortgage loans and disrupting essential infrastructure, such as roads and communication networks, leading to economic losses in sectors like transport, tourism, and agriculture.
The world needs better flood prevention: Given that around 37% of the global population resides in coastal areas within 100 km of the ocean, the expected annual flood damage globally could increase by USD 16.2 bn to USD 44.5 bn per year during 2020–2100 under low- and high-emissions scenarios, respectively, according to a study published in Springer. Over 376 mn people have been displaced globally since 2008 due to extreme weather, including 32.6 mn in 2022 alone — equating to one person displaced every second or the entirety of Australia being pushed out of their homes every year.
Enter floating buildings: Floating structures are gaining traction as a viable and sustainable method of preventing flood damage. The structures are designed to adapt to fluctuating water levels and offer a sustainable and eco-friendly lifestyle while enhancing climate resilience.
Our region is hopping on the bandwagon: UAE’s startup Floating Man, which specializes in floating structures including floating solar and battery energy storage system stations, is also introducing floodproof villas and houses to combat the impact of floods. The UAE also implemented an early weather warning system last month to help identify impending extreme weather events, such as floods. Morocco established a three-year cooperation program with China last week that will address flood and drought management.
Climate resilient infrastructure pays off: Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure yields significant returns, with the World Bank estimating that every USD 1 spent generates USD 4 in savings by avoiding future repair costs.
But more changes in policy making and infrastructure are necessary: Research underscores the need for robust flood defences and climate regulations to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure in North Africa. Some USD 6.9 tn in investments are needed for climate-resilient infrastructure globally to mitigate extreme climate events’ risks. And while Climate resilient infrastructure has been hailed as one of the most effective ways to adapt to climate related disasters, especially in developing countries where the impacts are felt disproportionately, effective reduction of future floods hinges on the world’s ability to adopt climate policy and regulations that would cut greenhouse gas emissions, studies show.
