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Climate refugees are a growing phenomenon: Over 376 mn people have been displaced globally since 2008 due to extreme weather, including 32.6 mn in 2022 alone — equating to one person displaced every second or the entirety of Australia being pushed out of their homes every year. There has been an average increase of 41% of climate refugees since the last decade. More people are being displaced due to climate change than internal conflicts, with 60% of 30.6 mn people displaced in 2017 across 135 countries due to climate-related disasters, according to the Climate Refugees organization.
It will only get worse: The World Bank puts its forecasts for internal migration to over 140 mn people across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America by 2050 due to extreme weather, rising sea levels, and food insecurity. In the worst-case scenario, a Institute for Economics and Peace report (pdf) predicts 1.2 bn people displaced by 2050 globally. Migration due to droughts in particular will rise by at least 200% throughout the rest of the century, according to a study by the International Migration Review (pdf).
A look at the causes: Rising temperatures increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather disasters such as floods, droughts, hurricanes which lead to widespread famine and migration. Most people are displaced within their country’s borders but climate change’s growing impact has been making certain areas uninhabitable for refugees to return to.
There’s a lack of climate resilient infrastructure: Climate resilient infrastructure has been hailed as one of the most effective ways to adapt to climate related disasters, especially in developing countries where the impacts are felt disproportionately. Some USD 6.9 tn in investments are needed for climate-resilient infrastructure globally if countries were to achieve their climate goals. However, governments are currently failing to factor in the impact of climate shocks in its planning and decision making. You can read more about climate resilient infrastructure in our Enterprise Explainer here.
MENA is at high risk of forced climate migration: The MENA region continues to be among the most affected areas by climate change, with forced migration set to particularly affect the region, according to national security news outlet Lawfare. The region’s geographical position, and geopolitical and socioeconomic status makes it more susceptible to the effects of climate change, with the UAE and Egypt particularly the most vulnerable. MENA temperatures have risen an average of 0.46°C per decade in the last 45 years compared to the world average of 0.18°C per decade, according to the International Energy Agency. Annual temperatures in East and North Africa could rise over 2°C by 2100 and even possibly reach 6°C in some cases.
We’ve already seen it happen: Storm Daniel hit Libya hard last year, destroying two dams and heavily flooding the neighboring coastal city of Derna killing 4.3k people and displacing nearly 34k people. Yemen’s population has also experienced major internal displacement due to food insecurity with the crisis exacerbated by the depletion of water sources and desertification in the war-torn country.
There’s more to come: Global sea levels rose an average of 1.7 meters annually during the twentieth century and the MENA region is predicted to be severely affected, particularly at port cities like Alexandria where approximately 100 mn people are at risk of flooding. Around 24% of the region’s coastal GDP and 20% of coastal urban areas are vulnerable which is double the global average. The average increase in sea levels by the end of the century is expected to be 29 to 110 cm and Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia are the most vulnerable.
And yet the concept often goes forgotten: The concept of a climate refugee isn’t formally recognized in international refugee law, meaning those displaced from their homes due to climate change do not qualify for protection, according to Climate Refugees. The 1951 Refugee Convention only covers people with a fear of racial, religious, national, and political persecution, according to a European Parliament briefing (pdf). The only protection a climate refugee might be granted results from laws with a general application, including the 1984 Cartagena Declaration that protects refugees fleeing from conditions that “seriously disturb public order.”
This leaves climate refugees in “legal limbo”: Due to a lack of recognition, climate induced displacement places migrants in need of humanitarian assistance in “legal limbo”. The void makes it difficult to collect precise data that could be used to implement an international legal framework to address the crisis.
More is now being done to bring the pressing issue to light: The EU’s 2012-2015 Nansen Initiative for disaster-induced cross-border displacement was the first to bring the issue to the international stage. The European Commission recognized climate change as a trigger for migration and instability through its 2019 European Green Deal Initiative. However, there remains no official legal status or protection for climate refugees.
