TODAY: Adnoc launches XRG to invest in low carbon energy

Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a busy end to a busy week, and we’re going out with a bang. Adnoc has launched a mega investment vehicle to fuel its commitment to low carbon energy solutions and we have all the details in the news well below, but first, an update from the world’s biggest CO2 emitter…

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- China set to hit CO2 emissions peak ahead of target: China will hit its CO2 emission by this year or next, according to 44% of experts surveyed by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) believe. Confidence in the country hitting its emission peak increased significantly compared to last year’s survey, in which only 21% shared that sentiment. The rising confidence comes on the back of record clean energy uptake that met the country’s expanding energy demand.

So is coal burning: Around 36% of surveyed experts believe that coal use has also peaked in the country, up by 16% from last year. China has pledged to “strictly control” the use of coal — which accounts for over 80% of China’s total emissions — aiming to cut its use starting in 2026. Yet, the country has not committed yet to a coal phaseout, which analysts, such as Wang Xiaojun of the Manilla-based People of Asia for Climate Solutions, believe would be necessary to achieve climate goals.

A rise in emission is still possible: More needs to be done to ensure the country is on the road for structural decline in emissions. The country — which targets peak emissions before 2030 and a 2060 carbon neutrality — has recently launched an economic stimulus package that is set to accelerate energy demand. This will require it to “either speed up renewable energy deployment even further or guide economic development in a less energy-intensive direction,” CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvyrta said.

The story grabbed ink in the international press: Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | The Guardian

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Egypt to partially pay Scatec in EGP for electricity: Egypt has reached an agreement with Norwegian renewables developer Scatec to partially pay for the electricity purchased under the 25-year power purchase agreement for its planned 1 GW solar and 100-200 MWh battery storage hybrid project in local currency, Asharq Business reports, citing two unnamed government officials.

The breakdown: The agreement would see the government make 50% of its payments in EGP for the first three years, then pay 25% in EGP and 75% in USD for the remaining duration of the agreement. The agreement sets the electricity purchase price at EGP 2.3 per KW hour, one of the sources said. Scatec is expected to break ground on the project in 1H 2025 and Asharq Business’ sources see the project kick off operations early 2026.

Scatec has other projects in Egypt: Scatec is part of a consortium including Belgian engineering group John Cockerill, Yara International, Egypt’s Petrochemical Holding Company, and Misr Fertilizer Production Company (Mopco) to produce green ammonia in Damietta with investments exceeding USD 900 mn. It is also developing a 100 MW green hydrogen plant with Orascom Construction and Fertiglobe. The company is also part of another consortium including France’s Technip Energies and Schlumberger that is reportedly in talks with the government to localize the production of electrolyzer components.

IN OTHER EGYPT NEWS- Egypt is working to pay off Dabaa expenses: The Egyptian government is committed to paying off what it owes the Russian developers of the 4.8 GW Dabaa nuclear power plant, according to a statement.

What we know about Dabaa finances: The facility would cost somewhere around USD 30 bn, 85% of which is being financed through a USD 25 bn loan from Russia with a 3% interest rate, with Egypt scheduled to begin repaying the sum in October 2029. The Russian loan’s payments are set to kick in starting 2029, over 22 years through 43 installments, Reuters reported in 2016, citing Egypt’s official gazette. Egypt was responsible for financing the remaining 15%, with payments scheduled in installments.

It is not clear whether the government’s statement refers to the self-financed 15% portion of the reactors’ costs or the Russian loan.

AND Onasolar to help projects go green: Local solar energy firm Onasolar will bring 144 MW worth of solar energy onto the grid during 1H 2025, an unnamed company official told Al Arabiya. The projects include a 100 MW plant in West Sohag for the Electricity Ministry, a 40 MW plant in Wadi El Natrun to feed a 37k feddan agricultural project, and a 4 MW solar project at Cairo International Airport.

Also in the pipeline: Onasolar plans to set up up to 1 GW worth of solar projects in partnership with the Electricity Ministry, add a fourth production electrical transformers line to its facilities, and eventually tap the Sudanese, Libyan, and Iraqi markets.

#2- Tajikistan will soon sign an MoU with Saudi renewables giant Acwa Power to develop solar and wind energy projects, Tajikistani Minister of Energy and Water Resources Daler Jum’a told CNN Business Arabic. No details on the size of the projects or investment tickets were disclosed.

Tajikistan wants to become a clean energy hub in Central Asia: The country — which already produces 98% of its electricity via hydroelectric power — wants to become a regional energy hub by expanding its hydroelectric power and growing its renewables portfolio and grid capabilities. Boasting a hydroelectric power potential of 527 TWh, Tajikistan hopes to produce 100% of its electricity through green energy while tripling its exports of low-carbon electricity by 2027. The country also has green hydrogen ambitions, with plans to produce 500k tons of the green fuel by 2030 and export three-quarters of this capacity to neighboring countries.

Investments from KSA and UAE in renewables are a top priority for Tajikistan, Jum’a told CNN. The KSA-based multinational Islamic Development Bank, for example, has funneled USD 150 mn into the country’s 3.6 GW Rogun Hydropower plant earlier this year.

REMEMBER- A JV between Masdar and Alpha Dhabi’s W Solar Investment — called MW Energy — signed an MoU with Tajikistan’s Energy and Water Ministry in October 2023 to explore developing at least 500 MW of green energy projects. The first 500 MW represents phase 1, with further investments said to be expected in the future in public-private partnership projects, including (floating) solar power, wind, and hydropower.

#3- Saudi and Russia say no to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” in UN General Assembly climate change resolution: An EU-sponsored amendment to the non-binding resolution that called for the doubling down on renewable energy and energy efficiency while phasing out fossil fuels was voted down following opposition from oil producing states led by the Kingdom and Russia, The New York Times reports. The Saudi delegation argued that the language of the proposed amendment lacked “balance.”

Not the first time: Saudi Arabia has been criticized for its role in blocking efforts to address fossil fuel transition at COP29 earlier this month. Transitioning away from fossil fuels — a key outcome of COP29 global stocktake — failed to make it in the final text after a Saudi-led group of nations reportedly used a variety of tactics to block any language on possible actions on the fossil pledge.

#4- Chinese solar manufacturers team up to address price slump: Around 22 Chinese solar exporters, including major players like Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy Technology, and Tongwei, have pledged to halt the practice of undercutting each other’s prices in foreign markets, Bloomberg reports. The companies — which have been in a “prices war” amid oversupply that brought prices down — are forming a committee to “maintain orderly exports” and foster “healthy competition.”

China’s solar industry is under a stress test: Consistent production capacity additions and generous government incentives have brought solar production in China to an all-time high. However, producers have reached a point of overproduction that has recently resulted in significant losses, layoffs, and bankruptcies, prompting calls for cooperation and government intervention to support the industry, Bloomberg reported.

The Chinese government is also set to reduce a key export levy rebate from 13% to 9% starting 1 December, which could also result in higher prices while also impacting the companies’ short-term financial performance. However, the long-term impact is expected to be minimal, Daiwa analyst Dennis Ip told Bloomberg. This policy change is also intended to encourage the export of high-value-added products while reducing the risk of anti-subsidy tariffs, Ip said.

More corrective policy changes may be coming soon: Shares in Chinese solar manufacturers soared amid speculations about government measures to address oversupply last month. Speculative news that the Industry and Information Technology Ministry might introduce rules to limit polysilicon production drove the shares up. The solar sector has shown signs of recovery despite recent struggles due to industry overcapacity largely driven by Chinese producers. The anticipation of significant policy changes, including the possible retirement of less-efficient polysilicon plants, has fueled investor optimism. Analysts from Tebon Securities suggest that improving risk appetite could create more investment opportunities in the sector.

IN OTHER CHINA NEWS- BYD may be prepping for a price battle as competition soars in China’s EV market, a leaked letter by BYD asking a supplier to take on a 10% price cut in 2025 suggests, Bloomberg reports. China’s auto market has been experiencing a price war for the past two years as oversupply and price cuts by big players like BYD push smaller companies out of the industry. The company’s PR director Li Yunfei brushed off the suggestion, claiming that price reduction targets are “common practice.”

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Qatar will host the World Energy Storage Conference from Tuesday, 3 December to Thursday, 5 December in Doha. The event will gather scientists, researchers, engineers, policymakers, and industry experts to discuss advancements and challenges in energy storage technology. The detailed agenda is yet to be announced.

Saudi Arabia will host the Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification from Monday, 2 December to Friday, 13 December in Riyadh. The summit will convene leaders and officials from 196 member-states and territories to advance actions and hold ministerial dialogues on resilience and finance, focusing on policies, tech and innovative funding mechanisms.

UAE will host the International Mangrove Conservation and Restoration Conference from Tuesday, 10 December to Thursday, 12 December in Abu Dhabi. The conference — happening in parallel to Riyadh’s COP16 on desertification — will gather global scientists and conservation experts dedicated to mangrove and coastal ecosystem restoration, seeking to share research, innovative approaches, and best practices for holistic restoration, including habitat diversity, connectivity, and climate resilience.

The UAE will host the World Energy Summit from Tuesday, 14 January to Thursday, 16 January in Abu Dhabi. The summit will host over 350 speakers including energy industry leaders and policymakers with discussions ranging from eco-waste to sustainable cities. An exhibition will also be held for showcasing green products.

Saudi Arabia will host the Future Minerals Forum from Tuesday, 14 January to Thursday, 16 January in Riyadh. The forum will gather stakeholders from over 170 countries to discuss mineral technology and exploration. Speakers will include senior government officials and CEOs from renowned mining companies Vale, Rio Tinto, and Manara.

Bahrain will host the Sustainability Forum Middle East from Tuesday, 28 January to Wednesday, 29 January in Manama. Climate experts and decision-makers will convene to discuss a number of issues ranging from decarbonization to supporting SMEs on their path to net zero. Speakers will include GCC government officials and industry leaders from the banking and industrial sectors.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.