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Environmentalists and diplomats are preparing for the possibility of another American withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under a second Trump administration, Bloomberg reported. Being the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, a US exit from the Paris Agreement could significantly impact global climate negotiations, potentially stalling new climate actions and altering the dynamics of the United Nations climate talks. The US departure might also provide political cover for other countries to delay their commitments.
Trump has a track record: The former president had blocked a forum for major economies’ leaders to discuss energy and climate in 2017. “Other countries that are working hard on climate will not be burned again by an administration acting on behalf of fossil fuels interests,” NRDC Action Fund senior adviser Jake Schmidt said.
Concerns are running high: UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning about the potential consequences of a second US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement at the COP16 biodiversity summit in Colombia, The Guardian wrote. Guterres emphasized the importance of the US remaining in the international climate process to prevent crippling the agreement. “A second Trump presidency is game over for meaningful climate action this decade, and stabilizing warming below 1.5C probably becomes impossible,” warned the University of Pennsylvania’s climate scientist Michael Mann.
Even if Trump doesn’t move on the Paris Accords, US climate policy could be severely crippled: Trump also announced his intention to “terminate” the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which he referred to as the “Green New Scam,” Axios reported. Trump criticized the law and pledged to rescind all unspent funds under the IRA, a move that would require congressional approval and could potentially disrupt numerous clean energy projects and jobs.
What else is on the line? The IRA includes tax credits for clean energy investments, estimated to reach up to USD 1.2 tn over 10 years. The law also provides funding aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting the green transition. Halting these funds could leave many projects in limbo, especially those without finalized contracts.
Some oil majors are also concerned: TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné is worried Trump’s climate moves would instigate backlash against the oil industry, the Financial Times reports. Some other major oil players are also among the big beneficiaries of Biden’s IRA’s tax credits and funds. For example, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum are big fans of the IRA, having received support for decarbonization from the USD 370 bn in green tax breaks and subsidies.
Meanwhile, climate skeptics are waiting to seize the day: Climate skeptics are laying the groundwork to revive coal-fired power plants, undermine the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and challenge the scientific models used in federal climate assessments, Bloomberg reported. These plans include boosting coal power and dismantling the scientific integrity of the EPA by blocking its research and altering its climate modeling methodologies.
The EU has its own concerns: European businesses are expressing significant concerns over the potential economic impact of a second Trump presidency who pledged to increase tariffs on foreign imports, Politico reported. These tariffs could severely affect European companies, particularly those involved in green goods and climate change initiatives, BusinessEurope deputy director general Luisa Santos said.
China hopes that the US will maintain its climate change commitments regardless of the presidential election outcome, Reuters reports, citing comments by the director general of the climate office at China’s Environment Ministry.
