Good morning, friends. It’s one of those days that’s lacking in major updates, but we have news on Masdar’s groundbreaking steel production using green hydrogen and the revival of Egypt’s EV manufacturing ambitions. Plus: We get into the differences between reforestation efforts and their efficacy.

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THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- Current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plans will make the world fall very short on climate targets, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) annual report (pdf). In their current form, NDC plans would see emissions fall by a meager 2.6% compared to 2019 by 2030, far off the 43% reduction to pre-2019 levels that are needed to keep global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

A radical shift is needed…: The report shows the critical need for countries to develop bolder climate plans by next year. These plans should include comprehensive emissions targets, sector-specific strategies, and credible regulations to ensure effective implementation. But NDCs are being leveraged as a “negotiating mechanism,” said Pablo Viera, who leads NDC Partnership, an NGO that advises countries on climate policies. “More money for more ambition.”

…or else we’re headed for disaster: “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception,” said UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. “Every fraction of a degree matters as climate disasters get rapidly worse.” At the current rate, the world may hit a 2.8°C rise in temperatures, according to the report.

The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | Bloomberg | Al Jazeera | BBC

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Saudi Arabia will host the Future Investment Initiative Conference from tomorrow until this Thursday, 31 October in Riyadh. The conference will gather entrepreneurs, political leaders, and decision-makers to explore investment options in AI, sustainability, energy, and more.

COP WATCH-

Egypt’s environment minister off to Cali for COP16: Egyptian Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad is heading to Colombia to attend high-level consultations at COP16 in Cali from today through to this Friday, 1 November. Fouad will attend ministerial meetings on biodiversity targets, the intersection of climate change and biodiversity, the meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution, and other events, the Environment Ministry said in a statement.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Egypt’s Alkan + BAIC to set up EV factory: Alkan Holdings subsidiary Egyptian International Motors and China’s state-owned auto manufacturer BAIC Group will set up an EV assembly plant in Egypt with a production capacity of 50k cars annually using 58% localized components, according to a statement.

More on the plant: The EV plant will begin production by late 2025 with 20k cars expected to be produced in the first year. Annual production volumes will hit 50k cars by the end of its fifth year. The companies are also planning to gradually increase the factory’s local component ratio from 48% to 58% over an unspecified time frame.

Talks to get EV assembly in Egypt off the ground have been ongoing for years: Al Nasr Automotive danced with auto giant Dongfeng back in 2019, only to pull out more than two years later over disagreements on imported components’ prices. In 2022, unconfirmed press reports suggested that an Al-Nasr-BAIC joint assembly factory could be in the pipeline.

Remember: The Madbouly government has been working to localize the auto industry, introducing the Egyptian Automotive Industry Development Program (AIDP) in 2022, which offers incentives to auto players to localize the sector and its feeder industries and encourage new investment in the sector.

#2- Oman’s OQ E&P shares drop on debut: Oman’s energy company OQ Exploration & Production shares closed down 8.2% on its first day of trading on the Muscat Stock Exchange, according to market data. The company’s shares fell to an intra-day low of OMR 0.36 per share, 9% below the OMR 0.39 offer price. The flopped debut is a rare instance in the Middle East IPO market of a company’s shares declining on the first day of trading, Bloomberg notes. The decline could be partially due to a global dip in crude prices, which dropped over 5% as Israeli strikes avoided Iran’s oil facilities.

#3- Ocean freight carbon emissions reach record high in 3Q 2024: Global ocean container carbon emissions hit record highs in 3Q 2024 due to the ongoing Red Sea conflict, rising freight rates, and congestion across shipping routes, according to freight rate analytics platform Xeneta. Carbon emissions for the top 13 ocean trades reached a record of 107.9 points, a 12.2% increase from the same period last year. This marks the highest emissions level recorded and only the second time the index surpassed 100 since its 1Q 2018 baseline, indicating higher emissions per tonne of cargo.

IN OTHER GREEN FREIGHT NEWS- Zero carbon ammonia continues to face safety hurdles and cost challenges compared to alternative shipping fuels, such as menthol, biofuels, and LNG, Reuters reports. Ammonia’s major selling point is that it is zero-carbon, making it a zero-emission fuel when made from green hydrogen.

In the pipeline: The first cargo ships powered by ammonia are set to enter service in 2026. The industry is gearing up for this, with the first transfer of ammonia from one ship to another safely completed last month in Western Australia, the newswire says.


So what’s the worry? “The lack of regulation, use experience, and toxicity of ammonia on board ships constitute major safety deterrents,” mining giant Rio Tinto head of commercial operations Laure Baratgin told the newswire. Refueling vessels with ammonia has the potential to cause acute poisoning and damage to exposed organs, with the greatest risk posed by leakage during bunkering operations, the newswire explains.

High costs: For ammonia bunkering to be competitive, its associated costs will have to fall significantly, as powering ammonia-fuelled vessels can cost up to two to four times more than conventional fuels. Ships operating on ammonia engines will also rack up extra maintenance costs, as the fuel is corrosive.

The orderbook: Some 25 ammonia dual-fuel vessels have been ordered as of 2024, with shippers still hesitant due to safety risks. This pales in comparison to at least 722 LNG-fueled vessels and 62 methanol-fuelled vessels on order as of 2024.

#4- Morgan Stanley “softens” climate lending goals: Morgan Stanley has lowered its climate targets for its corporate lending portfolio, adopting a flexible global warming cap between 1.5-1.7°C, rather than a strict 1.5°C, Chief Sustainability Officer Jessica Alsford told Reuters. The adjustment reflects slow progress towards a greener economy, hindered by factors such as sluggish EV sales and energy policy challenges, with the bank planning to emphasize the need for realistic targets, said Alsford.

The new plan: The bank has set new emissions reduction targets for six sectors: Energy, power, automotives, chemicals, mining, and aviation, with a new baseline year set for 2022 instead of 2019 for better data accuracy. By 2030, the new targets aim for a 45-60% emission reduction for the power sector across its portfolio, 29-45% for auto, 13-24% for aviation, 18-28% for chemicals, and 23-31% for mining.

DANGER ZONE-

US communities threatened by intensifying wildfires: Fast-moving wildfires have been responsible for nearly 80% of US home and structure destruction due to fires over the past two decades, according to a new study published in the journal Science. The study found that from 2001 to 2020, the growth rate of these wildfires — those that burn over 4k acres in a single day — rose by 249% in the western US, threatening nearly 1.8 mn structures nationwide.

The damage is immense: These fires have destroyed over 80.7k structures and inflicted USD 18.9 bn in firefighting costs. Climate change is intensifying the speed of these fires, with hotter, drier conditions and strong winds fueling their spread, as seen in devastating incidents like Colorado’s 2021 Marshall Fire and Hawaii’s 2023 Lahaina Fire, Bloomberg reported.

How can communities prepare themselves? There must be a shift in focus from fire size to speed for communities to prepare for rapid fire spread, the study’s lead author Jennifer Balch told Bloomberg. Suggested protective measures include fireproofing homes, clearing vegetation, and establishing ember-resistant zones to help mitigate the impact of fast-moving wildfires. Such measures are being incorporated into housing codes and could help firefighters shift focus to fighting wildfire blazes instead of evacuating homes.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Egypt will host the World Urban Forum from Monday, 4 November to Friday, 8 November, in Cairo. The forum, established by the UN and one of its largest non-legislative events, will center around the effect of rapid urbanization on communities, economies, climate change, and policies and will bring together government representatives, academics, business people, urban planners, and more.

South Africa will host the Critical Mineral Africa Summit from Wednesday, 6 November to Thursday, 7 November, in Cape Town. The summit aims to attract critical minerals investment to the continent and will be held alongside African Energy Week. The summit will be held in partnership with the Southern African-German Chamber of Commerce Partners representing Germany’s increasing investments in southern Africa.

Azerbaijan will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties (COP29) from Monday, 11 November to Friday, 22 November, in Baku. The annual conference brings together governments, world leaders, and other stakeholders to advance the Paris Agreement and negotiate ways to fight climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s objective is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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