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Most climate change indicators — including carbon emissions and land cover alterations — pose a serious risk to economic growth in the MENA region, according to a new study (pdf) by the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF). The study focused on twelve countries, including Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the UAE and used data spanning from 2010 to 2019. Researchers used the Generalized Methods of Moments — a statistical technique used to estimate parameters in econometric models — to analyze the data.
The Arab region is hit harder than others by climate change: Existing issues within the region are exacerbated by the effects of climate change, with already high temperatures rising further and water scarcity projected to have severe economic ramifications, including substantial losses in GDP and displacement of populations, the report said.
Carbon emissions are to blame: The region’s average atmospheric CO2 concentration was 400.4 parts per million (ppm) across the recorded observations — lower than the record high average of 421 ppm recorded globally in 2023 — and reached a high of 411.7 ppm. High levels of global CO2 emissions, typically linked to industrialization and fossil fuel use, contribute to environmental challenges like air pollution and climate change which negatively impact ecosystems and agriculture, posing high risks to economic growth, according to the AMF.
Land cover alterations hindered growth: Land cover — the type of physical land on Earth’s surface such as forests or open water — has changed significantly in the Arab region thus exacerbating climate change. The countries studied have reached a mean of 99.7 on the International Monetary Fund’s climate altering land cover index which equates a higher score with more land changes — such as increased urbanization and construction. Minimum and maximum levels were 75.9 and 111.8 respectively across Arab countries. Changes in land cover have been found to impact greenhouse gas (GHG) flow and increase atmospheric particle concentration, and energy and water flows which has a negative effect on economic growth.
Surface temperature had little impact: The study found a negative correlation between surface temperature changes and economic growth rates in the selected Arab countries, which suggests that rising temperatures that are associated with severe weather events and rising sea levels could adversely affect sectors like agriculture, tourism, and insurance. The impact however was shown to be statistically insignificant due to the prevailing semi-arid to arid climate conditions in most of the countries studied.
And precipitation changes also didn’t make a dent: Annual precipitation — which were 340.6 mm per year with minimum and maximum values of 10.9 mm and 2761.3 mm respectively — had a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth, mainly due to the relatively low reliance on the agricultural sector in most Arab countries, particularly those in the GCC region.
Stronger efforts to mitigate climate change are needed for economic growth:Addressing climate change’s adverse effects is crucial for sustainable development. Policymakers should implement policies promoting renewable energy, eco-friendly transportation, afforestation, green building standards, and sustainable farming practices in the region, the report concluded.
