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Study casts doubt on the EU’s hydrogen imports plan: A new study commissioned by European environmental NGO Transport & Environment (T&E) has cast doubt on the EU’s plans to import 10 mn tons of renewable hydrogen by 2030, according to a briefing of the report (pdf). The study — conducted by Ricardo consultancy — analysed the EU’s needs for hydrogen imports and evaluated the potential risks and benefits of such imports from six countries which it identified are the most likely to source the majority of renewable hydrogen to the EU by the end of the decade. The goal to import 10 mn tons of renewables comes as part of the EU’s RePowerEU plan launched in 2022.
Egypt, Oman, and Morocco are amongst the six countries expected to provide the bulk of renewable hydrogen to the EU,the study found, but which have concluded is “unrealistic” when compared to legally binding targets and the actual demand for hydrogen in the bloc. The other three countries considered are Chile, Namibia, and Norway.
Limited export capacity: While the IEA estimates only 4% of the announced hydrogen projects worldwide have reached a final investment decision, 80% of projects in the six exporting countries — or 99% of the planned capacity — were still in the technical feasibility stage in 2022. The study also analysed the national hydrogen strategies of the six countries and estimated that they could export 2.6 Mt of hydrogen by 2030, significantly below the EU’s target of 10 mn tons.
The infrastructure isn’t ready either: The study also noted that the hydrogen infrastructure is currently in no place to transport the gas in its pure form, as the only feasible methods for export involve its derivatives, such as ammonia or methanol. The region’s hydrogen infrastructure is still at a nascent stage, scoring 2.6 out of 5 in a survey of investors’ opinions on hydrogen production infrastructure carried out by the Global Infrastructure Investor Association last year.
Renewables could be better used to decarbonize home grids: The renewable electricity planned for hydrogen exports to Europe could significantly decarbonize the grids of those exporting countries, the data from T&E’s report found. Oman — which primarily relies on fossil fuels for its power generation — could meet 84% of its projected electricity demand and reduce its grid emissions by up to 90% if it were to use the renewables allocated for green hydrogen production set for export, locally. Morocco’s and Egypt’s emissions can also drop by 40% and 7% by using clean energy to feed domestic demand.
Increased demand will strain exporter’s water resources: Producing the 2.6 mn tons of hydrogen planned for export would require between 55 and 80 mn tons of water annually, the study notes, adding that pursuing the 10 mn tons hydrogen goal would raise the number to between 200 and 300 mn tons annually. Most of the countries studied are already facing water scarcity issues like low-recharge rates in Morocco and seawater intrusion in Oman. While one solution to avoid water problems in hydrogen production is to ramp up desalination projects to produce the needed water for the electrolyzer process, the tech — which Egypt and Oman has been rolling out — has financial and environmental obstacles, including the risk of released high concentrations of brine into the ocean, impacting aquatic biodiversity.
Land is limited, too: Another challenge is that the hydrogen projects would require substantial land areas to build massive renewables plants dedicated to power green hydrogen production, electrolysers, as well as export infrastructure. The estimated land requirement ranges from 3k to 13k sqkm. One example is Egypt where industries and agriculture areas are concentrated alongside the Nile and the Suez Canal, to which large-scale hydrogen projects could disturb local ecosystems and populations, especially during the construction phase.
Meeting demand domestically is more realistic: The study estimates that the EU has the potential to produce between 5.8 mn tons and 7.5 mn tons by 2030, given that the current ramp-up of renewables continues as expected. To achieve the RePowerEU goals by 2030, the production of electrolytic hydrogen in the European Union must experience a minimum annual growth rate of 97%, the study said, citing research by the think tank Zenon.
Where do e-fuels stand? The EU’s regulations — which will ban the use of any fossil carbon for e-fuel production from 2041 and carbon from fossil power generation from 2036 — present a hurdle for most of the countries studied as they grapple with the lack of an alternative non-fossil carbon source for the production of synthetic fuels. While direct air capture could be employed as a carbon source for e-fuel production. only a handful of such projects have been identified so far in the six identified case studies. However, e-fuels that do not require carbon (such as e-ammonia) could be developed and imported into the EU, especially for the shipping sector which is able to use them directly
T&E recommendations on hydrogen imports: The report published seven recommendations to be considered by the EU: revise downwards the “unrealistically high” 2030 hydrogen targets for both imports and local production; focus on local production first; have exporting countries establish a legal framework to respect the principle of Free, Prior & Informed Consent of the local population; allow the industrial scale deployment of renewable sources only if undertaken simultaneously with local grid decarbonisation; have projects be conditional on an assessment of water availability, wastewater disposal, biodiversity and land use impacts; prepare a switch to sustainable carbon sourcing; and ensuring the certification of green fuels are well monitored and verified.
